Texas football game-by-game picks, postseason prediction for 2026 season

Texas football is looking to make a playoff run in 2026, led by Arch Manning in his second season as the starter. Texas is expected to be one of the best teams in the nation in 2026, but a difficult schedule, including a gauntlet of a schedule in the SEC, could put Texas in a difficult situation.

The Longhorns went 10-3 in 2025, with a win over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. They were coming off back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances before the disappointing season in 2025. Texas sits sixth in the nation in returning production, while also sitting fourth in returning production on offense. Manning returns to offense, while they add Cam Coleman to help Manning out. He will be joined by Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V at the receiver position. At running back, Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown will need to step up, but they will be running behind a stellar offensive line.

On defense, Colin Simmons anchors the defensive line, and he comes back with Lance Jackson while adding Ian Geffrard in the transfer portal. There is a lot of change in the defensive secondary, but with Bo Mascoe coming in from Rutgers, the defense should be set. The schedule features nine conference games in the SEC, with dates against Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, and Texas A&M. Adding in a non-conference game against Ohio State could be difficult.

As Texas looks to regain dominance in the college football landscape, it is time to predict their 2026 schedule.

 Week 1- Texas State (September 5): Win 

GJ Kinne is now in his fourth season at Texas State, as the program moves to the Pac-12. Brad Jackson is coming off a stellar campaign in 2025, when he passed for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns, while adding another 17 on the ground. Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. lead the way in the receiver department, while the team has a solid interior offensive line. The defense is good as well, but is relying on transfers from lower levels of football. Texas State could surprise in the Pac-12, but will not be surprising Texas here.

Record: 1-0

Week 2- Ohio State (September 12): Loss

Last year, Arch Manning struggled in his first game as the Longhorns quarterback against Ohio State. It is forgotten; it was also the first game for Julian Sayin. Sayin and Manning are two of the best quarterbacks in the nation, while Cam Coleman is a stud receiver, but so is Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State. This could be a massive back-and-forth battle, but Ohio State is the better team in this game. The difference will be the defense, which will lean towards the Buckeyes.

Record: 1-1.

Week 3- UTSA (September 19): Win

While UTSA could have a solid season, this is nothing more than a tune-up for Texas before the conference schedule. UTSA is going to struggle in the trenches in this game, while they will also be struggling on the road in this game. The Roadrunners are consistently solid on the road, but this is not a game they can pull the upset. Texas moves to 2-1 on the season here.

Record: 2-1

Week 4- Tennessee (September 26): Win

Tennessee is different at home in night games, but this is a noon game, which helps Texas. It is the first conference game of the year for Texas, and they will come out blazing. Tennessee has a solid front seven and has the ability to get to the quarterback, so Manning will need to be on his game in this one. The Vols have also revamped their secondary, which will have a major test against Coleman and Wingo. The battle of the trenches also favors the Longhorns, which will give them the win.

Record: 3-1.

Week 5- Open Week (October 3)

This is a solid time for an open week, heading into a game against Oklahoma.

Record: 3-1.

Week 6- Neutral site Oklahoma (October 10):  Loss

This could decide the future of both teams. The game sits at a neutral site, playing at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Texas has an elite offense, but Oklahoma relies on an offensive identity that can match the Longhorns. John Mateer has the ability to both run and pass. His running ability could be a major factor in this game. While the Longhorns have a solid front seven, the ability to face a mobile quarterback could be an issue. Brent Venables has a defense that will disrupt Manning and the offense. Mateer will do just enough to get the win in this one.

Record: 3-2

Week 7- Florida (October 17): Win

Last year, this game came the week before Oklahoma, and Texas lost the game 29-21 in the Swamp. This year, the game comes the week after Red River, and Texas is at home. The combination of Manning and Wingo has the ability to stretch the field, which will be a major issue for Florida in this game. Florida is rebuilding with a new coach in this one. They will be physical on the lines, but they do not have the skill players to get the win.

Record: 4-2

Week 8- Ole Miss (October 24):  Loss

Ole Miss lost a lot on defense, but they will have figured out their defense by the time Week 8 comes around. On offense, Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are set to take over. Both are coming off amazing years, and it may be the best 1-2 punch in the backfield in the nation. Meanwhile, Steve Sarkisian’s squad could struggle with Chambliss in this one, along with the high-tempo offense. Texas also may not have an answer for Suntarine Perkins. The linebacker is great against both the run and the pass, and could shut down the short-to-intermediate game for the Longhorns. Unless the running game can get going, Texas loses again.

Record:  4-3

Week 9- Mississippi State (October 31): Win

Kamario Taylor enters his final year at Mississippi State and has shown his ability to not only pass the ball, but run it. Texas has shown the ability to contain solid running quarterbacks who rely on speed, which is the case here. Meanwhile, Jeff Lebby will be running the veer and shoot style offense. Fluff Bothwell will be the key for the Bulldogs’ offense, but Texas is going to key in on that. Isaac Smith and Kelley Jones will be key for the Mississippi State defense, but will struggle in this one.

Record: 5-3

Week 10- at Missouri (November 7): Win

Missouri’s home crowd will help the Tigers in this game, but it will not be enough. The secondary in this game for Missouri does not have enough to face off against Texas. They will be drawn into single coverage, without support, which Manning will take advantage of. Missouri still has Ahmad Hardy, which is going to keep this game tight. Hardy will wear down the Texas defense and get a few big runs, but not enough in this one.

Record: 6-3

Week 11- at LSU (November 14):  Loss

Lane Kiffin hosts Texas in this game. LSU has the firepower to turn this into a high-scoring shootout. LSU is led by Sam Leavitt, the transfer from Arizona State. His decision-making and dual-threat nature will be a major issue for Texas, and by this point in the system, he will be ready to do. Still, the defense is the key for LSU. Whit Weeks is the star of the defense, and patrols the middle of the field from his linebacker spot. Princewill Umanmielen comes in from Ole Miss and will be placing a ton of pressure on Manning. DJ Pickett can shut down top receivers, and he can change the game for the Tigers in this one.

Record: 6-4

Week 12- Arkansas (November 21): Win

If the Razorbacks are going to compete in this game, it will start in the front seven. Arkansas will attempt to play a physical game against Texas, but does not have the depth. They also do not have the secondary to slow down Manning, Wingo, and Coleman. The offense for Texas will thrive on explosive plays in 2026, and Arkansas will be giving those up throughout the season. The Razorbacks do not have the offense to respond in this game, and the Longhorns get their seventh win of the year.

Record: 7-4

Week 13- at Texas A&M (November 27):  Win

This game could go either way. Last year, Texas was already out of the race for the SEC, and likely out of the playoffs. Still, they took a 27-17 victory. This year, Texas A&M will not be 11-0 heading into this game, but Texas will have another chance to ruin their season. Marcel Reed was amazing before this game for the Aggies, but the Longhorns found a way to beat him. They do it again in 2026, as Texas takes the win.

Record: 8-4

Texas Football Postseason Prediction: Citrus Bowl 

Texas finished the season at 8-4, missing out on the SEC Championship with three conference losses. It is a highly disappointing season for the Longhorns, but they do land a bowl game. It will be the Citrus Bowl, which is for the top team in the SEC outside of the playoffs. Texas is a playoff-quality team, but they run into too many difficult opponents on the run to the playoffs.

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