England vs. Argentina 2026 World Cup prediction, odds, pick

The FIFA World Cup semifinals are almost upon us, and we have remaining four of the most battle-hardened teams that have fought their way through a truly dramatic tournament. The first semifinal sees last edition’s finalists in France take on Euros champions Spain, while the second will see defending champions Argentina take on England.

And while both England and Argentina have also played dramatic games already, they had vastly different experiences at the quarterfinal stage. The English came from behind after another two remarkable goals from Jude Bellingham in the showdown against Norway. They kept Erling Haaland quiet for the entire game and eventually found enough to pave their way to the semis.

Meanwhile, the defending champions produced a straightforward 3-1 win over Switzerland. Alexis Mac Allister initially fired them ahead after ten minutes, with Dan Ndoye finding the equalizer in the 72nd minute. The Swiss then held on until extra time before goals from Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez sealed the deal.

Regardless, both teams will be in no doubt that they are now set to play their biggest match of the tournament, with kickoff scheduled for Wednesday night in Atlanta. And despite the fact that Lionel Messi and co. are defending their title, the English arrive at this one as the slight favorites, a luxury they have undoubtedly earned due to the way they have played in the tournament thus far.

World Cup Odds courtesy of DraftKings

2026 World Cup Odds: England-Argentina Odds

3-Way Moneyline

England: +155

Argentina: +205

Draw (90 minutes): +200

England to Advance: -135

Argentina to Advance: +110

Over 2.5 Goals: +130

Under 2.5 Goals: -160

England vs. Argentina Injuries

England: Thomas Tuchel will be delighted with the fact that he has almost a full squad to choose from once again. Declan Rice survived a recent bug scare and is reported to be fully fit for this one. Jordan Henderson has not played in the tournament thus far and his injury during the celebrations after the Mexico clash means that he is the only confirmed absentee for this game.

Tuchel may as well still look to make a couple of changes in his attack, with Noni Madueke and Anthony Gordon unlikely to start together once again.

Argentina: Lionel Messi had picked up an eye injury in the game against Switzerland but is expected to be fit for this one. Meanwhile Cristian Romero and Leandro Paredes were both subbed out due to fatigue late in the game against Switzerland.

However, Lionel Scaloni is confirmed to have a fully-fit squad as they look to traverse their way past an English team who will be feeding themselves optimism about the World Cup indeed potentially coming home.

England vs. Argentina Form and Trends

England Last 5 Games: WWWWW

Argentina Last 5 Games: WWWWW

Last Meeting: Argentina 2-2 England (international friendly)

England to Win 2026 World Cup: +250

Argentina to Win 2026 World Cup: +230

Keys to England vs. Argentina Matchup

The tournament thus far has had no dearth of goals, and games have been decided by attackers more than defenders. We expect the same to continue in the semifinals as well.
However, both teams have been determined defensively thus far. Argentina’s hard-hitting duo of Lisandro Martinez and Romero will have a task on their hands keeping Harry Kane quiet, but the same can be said about the 38-year-old Lionel Messi.

Argentina, however, have not been at their mercurial best in spurts unlike England who have undoubtedly found their groove and have made the most out of their duo of Kane and Bellingham. The latter in particular has delivered at every juncture so far, with Kane pulling the strings together in attack. The Bayern Munich striker is now two goals behind Kylian Mbappe in the Golden Boot race with six goals, and will be determined to find the net once again against Argentina.

We expect Tuchel to change things around and start Bukayo Saka on the right, with Marcus Rashford also a candidate to replace Gordon on the left wing. The English, for the first time in recent history, appear to have the upper hand in what is a huge game. Expect a low-scoring, physical game in which the likes of Bellingham and Kane eventually find enough to take their team to the final.

England vs. Argentina Prediction & Pick

Both teams defend high and have shown the ability to dig deep when under pressure. Despite the offensive talent that is bound to be on the pitch, expect this one to be a low-scoring affair where attackers struggle to find space in the right areas.

Messi will once again be expected to find magic, something the defending champs have frequently needed in this tournament thus far. And while nobody will put it past the Inter Miami man to once again lead his team, England undoubtedly have the better squad.

The English have found their identity in this tournament and undoubtedly have the best chance of going all the way than in recent history. Tuchel had aired his frustration at how his team played against Norway despite the win, claiming that he was well aware that his team was capable of blowing teams away.

While that is unlikely to happen against a possession-dominant Argentina team, we expect England to end up as 3-2 winners, with Bellingham once again providing them offensive inspiration.
Final England vs. Argentina Prediction & Pick: England to Advance (-135); Under 2.5 Goals (-160)

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