Bella Mir vs. Alex Apodaca prediction, odds, pick for Contender Series Week 3

Contender Series 2026 Week 3 continues with a fight between Bella Mir and Alex Apodaca in the women’s bantamweight division. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Mir-Apodaca prediction and pick.

Bella Mir (4-0), daughter of former UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir, headlines Tuesday after a first-round hammerlock submission of Stephanie Calderon in July 2025, her first bout in over a year following a three-year hiatus for grappling. The BJJ purple belt and NCAA All-American wrestler has finished three of her four wins as she comes into this fight this Tuesday against Alex Apodaca.

Alex Apodaca (3-1) rides a three-fight winning streak into Tuesday, all by unanimous decision, most recently outpointing Devon McDonald at Fury FC 122 in July, following a similar decision win over Shanna Gomez in January. Her only career loss was a decision to Nikola Kacperska in 2024 as she comes into this fight this Tuesday against Bella Mir.

Contender Series Week 3 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

Contender Series Week 3 Odds: Bella Mir-Alex Apodaca Odds

Bella Mir: -1500

Alex Apodaca: +874

Why Bella Mir Will Win

Bella Mir’s biggest weapon in this fight is her grappling pedigree, an area where Alex Apodaca has shown zero answers throughout her career. Mir is a BJJ purple belt and NCAA All-American wrestler who has finished three of her four professional wins, most recently locking up a first-round hammerlock submission over Stephanie Calderon.

Apodaca, by contrast, has never finished an opponent, going the distance in all three of her career wins by unanimous decision. That complete absence of finishing ability suggests she lacks the power or submission threat needed to keep Mir off her once the fight hits the mat.

Mir’s wrestling base gives her a clear path to taking Apodaca down at will, and once there, her jiu-jitsu credentials, including a 2024 IBJJF NoGi World title as a blue belt, make survival extremely difficult for anyone without elite grappling defense of their own . Apodaca’s résumé shows no evidence she’s faced that level of danger on the ground before.

If Mir can close distance early and secure any kind of clinch or takedown, her finishing instincts should take over quickly given her track record. Given her superior grappling pedigree, proven submission threat, and Apodaca’s total lack of finishing ability, Bella Mir has every tool needed to extend her unbeaten streak to 5-0 with another stoppage win.

Why Alex Apodaca Will Win

Alex Apodaca’s biggest edge in this fight is pure durability and consistency across three rounds, something Bella Mir has never had to prove at this level. Apodaca has gone the distance in all three of her career wins, showing a deep gas tank and the composure to grind out decisions against live competition, most recently over Devon McDonald at Fury FC 122.

Mir, meanwhile, took a three-year layoff between fights and has only faced four professional opponents total, meaning her cardio and adjustments under sustained pressure remain largely untested. If Apodaca can survive Mir’s early grappling attempts and drag the fight into the second and third rounds, that inexperience could become a real liability .

Apodaca’s decision-heavy style also suggests a fighter with sound takedown defense and scrambling ability, since opponents haven’t been able to finish her either. That kind of durability matters directly against a grappler like Mir who relies on securing top position and finishing from there.

If Mir can’t get the fight down early, Apodaca’s superior pace and ring generalship over three full rounds should let her out-work a less experienced opponent on the feet and in the clinch. Given her proven durability, deeper gas tank, and a perfect record of finishing fights on the scorecards rather than folding to pressure, Alex Apodaca has every tool needed to expose Mir’s inexperience and get the decision win.

Final Bella Mir-Alex Apodaca Prediction & Pick

Bella Mir headlines Tuesday’s card with a clear path to victory built on elite grappling pedigree. The BJJ purple belt and NCAA All-American wrestler has finished three of her four professional wins, most recently securing a first-round hammerlock submission over Stephanie Calderon.

Alex Apodaca has never finished an opponent, going the distance in all three of her career wins by decision, which suggests she lacks the power or grappling defense to keep Mir off her once things hit the mat. That contrast in finishing ability should be decisive.

Expect Mir to use her wrestling credentials to close distance early and force a clinch or takedown, testing Apodaca’s grappling defense almost immediately. Once the fight reaches the floor, Mir’s submission instincts and 2024 IBJJF NoGi World title as a blue belt make escape difficult for any opponent lacking elite ground skills .

Look for Mir to secure a takedown inside the opening minutes and hunt for a finish shortly after, extending her unbeaten record to 5-0 in the Contender Series main event.

Final Bella Mir-Alex Apodaca Prediction & Pick: Bella Mir (-1500)

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