Mario Piazzon vs. Guilherme Uriel prediction, odds, pick for Contender Series Week 3

Contender Series 2026 Week 3 continues with a fight between Mario Piazzon and Guilherme Uriel in the heavyweight division. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Piazzon-Uriel prediction and pick.

Mario Piazzon (10-1) enters Tuesday riding two straight wins, most recently a unanimous decision over Andre Vieira at Shooto Brazil 135 in March, following a second-round TKO of Fernando Batista in September 2025. His only career loss was a first-round KO to Alex Junius in March 2025 as she comes into this fight this Tuesday against Guilherme Uriel.

Guilherme Uriel (7-2) gets a second Contender Series shot after a first-round TKO of Leonardo Fraga at LFA 229 in March, snapping back from a Round 2 TKO loss to Josh Hokit in his 2025 DWCS debut. Seven of his nine finishes have come by knockout or submission as she comes into this fight this Tuesday against Mario Piazzon.

Contender Series Week 3 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

Contender Series Week 3 Odds: Mario Piazzon-Guilherme Uriel Odds

Mario Piazzon: +186

Guilherme Uriel: -220

Why Mario Piazzon Will Win

Mario Piazzon’s biggest edge in this fight is durability under pressure, an area where Guilherme Uriel has already shown real cracks. Uriel’s last Contender Series appearance ended when Josh Hokit’s relentless wrestling and ground-and-pound broke him down for a second-round TKO, exposing a defense that has struggled against sustained volume.

Piazzon, by contrast, finishes 78% of his fights and has been the aggressor far more often than the recipient of pressure. His only loss came against a one-shot knockout artist in Alex Junius, not from being worn down over multiple rounds, which suggests his conditioning and composure hold up deep into a fight .

Uriel also carries a two-loss resume that includes getting stopped by strikes, a red flag against a heavyweight like Piazzon who has finished the majority of his career wins by knockout. If Piazzon can close distance and land clean early, history suggests Uriel’s chin and gas tank may not hold up.

Piazzon’s recent form, including a decision win over Andre Vieira and a TKO of Fernando Batista, shows a fighter still finding finishes against live competition, not fading. Given his superior finishing instincts, better recent form, and a clear blueprint from Uriel’s own last fight, Mario Piazzon has every tool needed to get the finish and move to 11-1.

Why Guilherme Uriel Will Win

Guilherme Uriel’s path to victory starts with the one blueprint that’s already worked against a heavyweight contender: heavy pressure and volume. Josh Hokit exposed exactly that formula against Uriel himself, but Uriel has studied that loss closely and now brings a similar attacking mentality into a second Contender Series opportunity with something to prove .

Piazzon’s only career loss came by first-round knockout to Alex Junius, proof that his chin isn’t invincible against clean, early power. Uriel has finished four of his seven wins by strikes, and if he can land something similar in round one, Piazzon’s flaw becomes the deciding factor.

Uriel also brings genuine finishing versatility, with three submission wins showing he isn’t a one-dimensional heavyweight banger. That kind of unpredictability makes him a harder read for Piazzon to prepare for compared to opponents who telegraph a single dominant path to victory.

Motivation matters here too. Uriel is fighting on a second chance after already tasting the sting of a Contender Series loss, and fighters given a rare do-over on this stage often bring a sharper, more desperate performance than an opponent who hasn’t faced that kind of setback.

Given his finishing versatility, a proven blueprint for attacking heavyweights with pressure, and extra motivation from his last DWCS defeat, Guilherme Uriel has every tool needed to spoil Mario Piazzon’s night and earn the finish.

Final Mario Piazzon-Guilherme Uriel Prediction & Pick

This heavyweight clash pits Mario Piazzon’s superior finishing rate and composure against Guilherme Uriel’s second-chance motivation and pressure-based attack. Piazzon finishes 78% of his fights and has only been beaten once, by a clean knockout rather than sustained volume, suggesting his gas tank and chin hold up over multiple rounds.

Uriel is coming off a Round 2 TKO loss to Josh Hokit’s relentless wrestling in his last Contender Series appearance, a defeat that exposed real durability concerns when pressure is applied consistently. That loss looms large against an opponent like Piazzon who thrives on forward pressure and finishing sequences.

Expect Piazzon to test Uriel’s chin early with power shots, drawing on the aggressive style that’s carried him to nine finishes in ten wins. If Uriel can’t answer immediately, the fight likely ends inside the first two rounds.

Given Piazzon’s superior recent form and Uriel’s documented vulnerability to sustained pressure, look for Piazzon to secure the finish and move to 11-1, punching his ticket toward a UFC contract.

Final Mario Piazzon-Guilherme Uriel Prediction & Pick: Mario Piazzon (+186)

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