Why Reds’ Sal Stewart is clearly going to win NL Rookie of the Year

Despite Nolan McLean’s brilliance on the mound, the smart money is overwhelmingly on Sal Stewart, and for good reason: the Cincinnati Reds first baseman has authored one of the most complete rookie offensive seasons in recent memory, and the numbers back it up at every turn.

A Historic Offensive Season

Stewart’s case starts with a milestone no Reds rookie has ever reached. This season, he became the first rookie in franchise history to post a 30-homer, 100-RBI campaign, finishing with 31 home runs and 107 RBIs through his age-22 season. That’s not a modern anomaly, either  it’s a franchise record spanning over a century of Cincinnati baseball, and it puts Stewart in rare company among first-year players across all of MLB.

Beyond the headline power numbers, Stewart has hit for both average and consistency. He’s batting .264 with an .812 OPS and a 124 OPS+, meaning he’s been 24% more productive than a league-average hitter as a 22-year-old facing major league pitching for the first time. His 556 at-bats also demonstrate durability and everyday reliability Stewart hasn’t just produced in flashes, he’s been an every-day fixture in a competitive Reds lineup all season long.

Dominant in the Moments That Matter

Stewart’s peripheral performance has only strengthened as the season has progressed. He was named NL Rookie of the Month in April, then bookended that honor by winning it again in August, when he hit .304 with eight home runs over the final stretch of the regular season. That’s the profile of a player who didn’t just get off to a hot start and fade, he peaked when the games mattered most, as the Reds pushed for playoff positioning down the stretch.

His volume of production also stands out relative to the field. Stewart’s 145 hits, 80 walks, and 107 RBIs reflect a hitter who combines patience with impact, rather than simply padding stats in low-leverage spots. That combination of on-base skill and thump is exactly the type of well-rounded profile that voters have historically rewarded in Rookie of the Year balloting, and it’s why Stewart earned his first career All-Star selection this season.

Sal Stewart has homered in every game of this series pic.twitter.com/zAUAHI39xd

— MLB (@MLB) August 31, 2026

The Numbers the Voters Are Seeing

The market has already rendered its verdict. Entering September, Stewart was a commanding 82% favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, dwarfing McLean’s 9% and every other contender in the field.

Stewart has consistently been positioned at or near the top of every updated poll, a testament to how difficult it’s been for any rival, including McLean, to overtake him in the eyes of voters . Unlike a starting pitcher who impacts games once every five days, Stewart’s bat has been in the lineup every single night, compounding his value across a full 162-game slate in a way that’s hard for any once-a-week performer to match in a counting-stats-driven vote.

When Rookie of the Year ballots are tallied, voters gravitate toward players who dominate the stat sheet in memorable, tangible ways and Stewart has done exactly that. A 30-homer, 100-RBI rookie season is the kind of milestone that write-ups, highlight reels, and awards shows are built around, and it’s why Stewart isn’t just the favorite on paper he’s the clear, deserving choice. Between his historic power numbers, his .812 OPS, and his back-to-back Rookie of the Month honors, Sal Stewart has built an airtight resume that should carry him to NL Rookie of the Year honors.

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