Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 119

The UFC Vegas 119 Co-Main Event is finally here as we bring you another prediction and pick for this upcoming tilt in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. UFC veteran Ion Cutelaba of Moldova will take on New Zealand’s rising Navajo Stirling in what should be a competitive scrap atop the Fight Night card. Check our UFC odds series for the Cutelaba-Stirling prediction and pick.

Ion Cutelaba (20-11-1) has gone 9-10-1 inside the UFC since 2016, most recently beating Oumar Sy via guillotine for a massive upset victory. After dropping three-straight fights, Cutelaba has seen a resurgence with three wins over his last four appearances and looking for another underdog win in this one. Cutelaba stands 6-foot-1 with a 75-inch reach.

Navajo Stirling (9-0) has gone a perfect 4-0 since joining the UFC roster in 2024, most recently taking out Bruno Lopes via knockout during his last appearance. It was his first promotional knockout after three-straight unanimous victories, potentially fighting for a top-15 ranking if he can take out a dangerous veteran on Saturday. Stirling stands 6-foot-4 with a 79-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Ion Cutelaba-Navajo Stirling Odds

Ion Cutelaba: +245

Navajo Stirling: -305

Over 1.5 rounds: -210

Under 1.5 rounds: +160

Why Ion Cutelaba Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Oumar Sy – SUB (guillotine choke, R1)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 13 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Ion Cutelaba put together his most memorable performance in recent memory his last time out, facing Oumar Sy as a +235 underdog and making the guillotine finish look easy to halt the quickly rising stock of his opponent. Cutelaba became an afterthought of the division following his recent skid, but his last two wins have come by way of submission as he’s becoming increasingly dangerous after turning this corner.

On the feet, Cutelaba is most dangerous with his overhand punches and straight right down the middle. He’ll be at a height and reach disadvantage as his opponent is admittedly the better striker, but Cutelaba has violence on his side and the ability to change the fight with one clean punch. On the ground, Cutelaba is quicker to find submission opportunities and could have Stirling in a number of bad spots if he’s able to force him into a takedown.

From there, watch Cutelaba to quickly use his physical strength and top pressure in searching for a submission choke from there. His ground control is very dominant and while Stirling boasts a strong 82% takedown defense rate, we haven’t seen much work on the ground from him up to this point. Cutelaba can certainly make the prospect uncomfortable if he’s able to force the grappling upon him early.

Why Navajo Stirling Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Bruno Lopes – TKO (strikes, R1)
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO

Navajo Stirling came into the UFC as a picture-perfect light heavyweight prospect given his 6-foot-4 frame and 79-inch reach. He’ll have both advantages over Cutelaba and does a great job controlling the striking distance against all his opponents, so expect much of the same out of Stirling as he should prove to be the more fluid striker early on. His last fight was his first knockout in the UFC and he should have a ton of confidence to replicate that performance in this one.

Still, Cutelaba has recently been known to extinguish the flame of hot prospects in this division, so Stirling will have to remain defensively sound throughout this fight, especially on the feet and trading with Cutelaba. His own jab will be his biggest weapon, gauging the distance with it as he loads up his right hand and uppercuts to the chin.

Stirling is also active with his low leg kicks which Cutelaba has struggled to defend in the past. If Stirling can compromise the legs early, it should hinder Cutelaba’s explosive movements and allow an opening for Stirling to catch him clean. On the feet, Stirling is clearly the better talent and will have the greater knockout upside in this one.

Final Ion Cutelaba-Navajo Stirling Prediction & Pick

This should be another fun bout as both men are known for their devastating striking power on the feet. However, Ion Cutelaba has seen much more recent success gravitating towards his submission grappling, so don’t be surprised if he engages the wrestling early and tries to bring Stirling to the ground where he’s most comfortable.

Still, I think Navajo Stirling will be able to catch Cutelaba with enough shots early to discourage any sort of takedown attempts, ultimately giving him the edge in optics during this fight. Stirling is also dangerous with his elbows from the clinch and will be looking to take Cutelaba there in trying to earn the knockout.

For our final prediction, we’ll roll with the betting favorite to prevail in this fight as he should remain undefeated and likely see a top-15 ranking with his fifth-straight win.

Final Ion Cutelaba-Navajo Stirling Prediction & Pick: Navajo Stirling (-305); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-210)

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