Fatal flaw that will doom Guardians’ chances of winning AL Central

The Cleveland Guardians are right where they need to be to make a run at the Chicago White Sox and win the American League Central title. They are 70-70 with 22 games remaining, and just 3.0 games behind Chicago’s South Side team. That is more than enough time to make up the difference between the two teams and surge into first place. Based on the recent histories of both teams, that’s exactly what should happen, especially since the two teams have a 3-game series remaining on the schedule in Cleveland later this month.

However, the Guardians have one big problem that they have not been able to overcome all season. They just can’t hit enough, and they certainly don’t have enough power. The Guardians are dead last in home runs in Major League Baseball with 130 home runs. That’s less than 1 home run a game.

While home runs themselves don’t determine a team’s outcome on a nightly basis — take a look at the Milwaukee Brewers who are 29th in home runs but have the best record in baseball — the Guardians don’t score enough runs. In addition to the dearth of long balls supplied by the Guardians, they are 28th overall in runs scored. That’s a problem that the Guardians have not been able to overcome to this point in the season.

Ramirez injury has been the driving issue for the Guardians

The biggest issue that manager Stephen Vogt’s Guardians have suffered through to this point in the season was the lack of production from Jose Ramirez, the best player on the team and one of the best in all of baseball. Ramirez is never mentioned with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani among baseball’s most elite, but he has been sensational throughout the majority of his career.

Ramirez had five straight All-Star performances from 2021 through 2025 and seven overall. He blasted 39 home runs and drove in 118 runs in 2024 and followed up with 30 home runs and 85 RBI last year.

This year has seen Ramirez sidelined for five weeks from mid-June through late July when he fractured his left hamate bone.

After he returned to the lineup, he has not been 100 percent. He has had soreness and inflammation, and he has had to miss a few games and it is clear he has not been at his best. As a result, his production numbers are way down. Ramirez is slashing .241/.334/.386 with 11 home runs and 48 RBI.

Ramirez will almost certainly be in the lineup the rest of the season, but he is not going to be in peak condition. He needs help from the rest of the Guardians lineup, but the power and the run production is not there.

The Cleveland lineup includes Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, newcomer Jo Adell, Bryan Rocchio and Travis Bazzana. Part-time player Angel Martinez leads the team with 14 home runs, while DeLauter is right behind with 13 home runs.
He is tied with Rhys Hoskins, who is currently on the Injured List with lower back inflammation. He could be back shortly, but he has struggled overall with a slash line of .179/.306/.376.

The lack of power and run production overall has left the Guardians at a severe offensive deficit when compared with the White Sox. The Guardian have scored 566 runs this season, compared to the 662 runs scored by Chicago. That minus-96 run differential is the primary reason the White Sox are in first place and the Guardians are looking up at them.

Guardians pitching has been their greatest asset

The Guardians have done an excellent job on the mound this season, and with just a bit more production.

While they go into the final 22 games of the season with a minus-11 run differential overall — compared to the White Sox plus-40 — they have the superior pitching staff. Cleveland has a 3.70 earned run average this season while the White Sox are not as effective with a mark of 4.14.

Gavin Williams has been the best starter of the rotation and he has a 13-7 record along with a 3.81 ERA as well as 217 strikeouts in a 163.0 innings. Williams has started 28 games for the Guardians and 10 of his starts have been quality starts.

No pitcher on the Guardians has had more quality starts than Tanner Bibee. While he has a painful 5-15 record with a 4.06 ERA, 17 of his 29 starts have been of the quality variety. Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo have been in the regular rotation for the Guardians, and Messick has an 11-8 record with a razor sharp 2.46 ERA in 161.0 innings that also includes 161 strikeouts.

Cade Smith has been the key pitcher out of the bullpen with 35 saves, a 2.36 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 61.0 innings.

The pitching has been a strength for the Guardians, but their inability to generate enough offense will keep them from catching the resurgent White Sox for the division title.

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