Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin prediction, odds, pick for UFC Belgrade

UFC Belgrade: Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez continues on the main card with a fight between Dusko Todorovic and Robert Valentin in the middleweight division. Check out our UFC Belgrade odds series for our Todorovic-Valentin prediction and pick.

Dusko Todorovic (13-6) returns to the Octagon on home soil after snapping a year-long layoff, following a knee injury that forced him out of a scheduled March bout. He’s coming off a first-round submission win over José Daniel Medina last September, and a win here would push him to 14-6 as he comes into this fight this weekend against Robert Valentin.

Robert Valentin (12-6-0, 1 NC) comes into UFC Belgrade having snapped a two-fight skid with a slick first-round rear-naked choke submission of Julien Leblanc this past April. That win followed a first-round KO loss to Ateba Gautier, showing the boom-or-bust nature that defines his career, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Dusko Todorovic.

UFC Belgrade Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Belgrade Odds: Dusko Todorovic-Robert Valentin Odds

Dusko Todorovic: +136

Robert Valentin: -162

Over 1.5 rounds: +100

Under 1.5 rounds: -130

Why Dusko Todorovic Will Win

Dusko Todorovic should have a clear path to victory over Robert Valentin at UFC Belgrade, fighting in front of his home Serbian crowd with legitimate motivation. Todorovic’s finish rate sits at a staggering 92% across his UFC career, and his recent submission win over José Daniel Medina shows his grappling remains sharp after a year away from the cage.

Valentin, meanwhile, has lost three of his last four fights, including three separate first-round finishes, revealing a concerning pattern of early vulnerability that Todorovic’s clinch-heavy Muay Thai style is perfectly suited to exploit. His striking defense sits at just 33%, a number that should worry anyone facing a finisher of Todorovic’s caliber.

Todorovic’s average fight time of just 7:41 across his UFC career shows he consistently gets fights over with quickly, and analytics models actually project him as the most likely winner via second-round KO/TKO through accumulating clinch damage. That style matches up poorly against Valentin’s below-average takedown defense and history of getting hurt early.

Given the home-crowd energy, Todorovic’s superior finishing rate, and Valentin’s exposed defensive holes, look for the Serbian to close the show inside two rounds and improve to 14-6.

Why Robert Valentin Will Win

Robert Valentin has a real opportunity to spoil Dusko Todorovic’s homecoming at UFC Belgrade if he can capitalize on his opponent’s long layoff. Todorovic hasn’t fought in nearly a year after a knee injury derailed a scheduled March return, and ring rust against a live finisher like Valentin can be a dangerous combination.

Valentin’s submission game is genuinely elite, with eight of his 11 career wins coming by tapout, including his most recent rear-naked choke finish of Julien Leblanc. If he can get this fight to the mat early, he has real path to exploit a Todorovic who has been finished by strikes in three of his last five outings.

Todorovic’s own durability is a legitimate concern, having been knocked out in the first round by both Mansur Abdul-Malik and Christian Leroy Duncan in recent years. That kind of chin history suggests Valentin’s underrated power, three knockouts on his ledger, could also find a home if the grappling exchanges break down.

Given Todorović’s ring rust after a serious knee injury and Valentin’s dangerous, finish-heavy skill set, the Swiss middleweight has a legitimate case to spring the upset and snap his own recent skid in Belgrade.

Final Dusko Todorovic-Robert Valentin Prediction & Pick

Robert Valentin’s path to victory over Dusko Todorovic runs through the grappling exchanges, where his elite submission game gives him a genuine edge. Eight of his 11 career wins have come by tapout, and his recent rear-naked choke finish of Julien Leblanc shows that skill set remains sharp.

Todorovic’s year-long layoff following a serious knee injury raises real questions about ring rust, especially against an opponent who thrives on quick, opportunistic finishes. Valentin’s underrated power, three career knockouts, also gives him a puncher’s chance if Todorovic’s chin shows the same cracks that let both Mansur Abdul-Malik and Christian Leroy Duncan finish him early.

Expect Valentin to look for takedowns and transitions early, using his length and grappling craft to drag this into unfamiliar territory for a rusty Todorovic. Look for Valentin to lock up a submission in the second round, spoiling the Serbian’s homecoming and snapping his own recent skid in Belgrade.

Final Dusko Todorovic-Robert Valentin Prediction & Pick: Robert Valentin (-162); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-130)

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