Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura prediction, odds, pick for UFC Belgrade

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez is live from Belgrade, Serbia as we present another prediction and pick for this upcoming Heavyweight Division tilt. Serbia’s own Aleksandar Rakic will continue trying his hand in a new division against Poland’s No. 12-ranked Marcin Tybura. Check our UFC Belgrade odds series for the Rakic-Tybura prediction and pick.

Aleksandar Rakic (14-6) comes into this bout with a 6-5 record inside the UFC since 2017. He’s currently riding a four-fight losing streak and will make his first appearance at heavyweight following a knockout loss to Azamat Murzakanov his last time out. Rakic stands 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach.

Marcin Tybura (27-11) has gone 14-10 in a decade with the UFC, most recently falling to Tyrell Fortune via unanimous decision back in March 2026. It marked his second-straight loss after he posted consecutive wins, looking to retain his No. 12 ranking against a newcomer to the division. Tybura stands 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach.

UFC Belgrade Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Belgrade Odds: Aleksandar Rakic-Marcin Tybura Odds

Aleksandar Rakic: -355

Marcin Tybura: +280

Over 1.5 rounds: -220

Under 1.5 rounds: +170

Why Aleksandar Rakic Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Azamat Murzakanov – KO (jab, R1)
• Last 5: 1-4
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Aleksandar Rakic ran into yet another brick wall in Murzakanov as he was stopped with the straight jab down the middle that sat him down. Rakic has now dropped four consecutive fights dating back to 2021, all stemming from his leg injury against Jan Blachowicz in 2022. He’s hoping that this move to heavyweight can breathe new life into his career and it’ll be interesting to see how his new frame fares against bigger opponents.

Rakic will actually be the slightly taller man here and retains more of his power not having to make the 205-pound limit. A key stat to look at will be Rakic’s 85% career takedown defense rate. Marcin Tybura makes a living off tying his opponents up and quickly taking position on the ground, but Rakic doesn’t seem like the type to spend too much time fighting off his back in this one.

Expect a kickboxing bout for the most part as Rakic will have to be constantly aware of the low leg kicks. They’ve been a theme in his previous fights and he could be on the right side of them if he takes advantage of Tybura’s relaxed striking stance. Either way, Rakic will have to be defensive in his nature in avoiding another disappointing finish.

Why Marcin Tybura Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Tyrell Fortune – U DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 8 SUB

Marcin Tybura was bested on the scorecards his last time out against Tyrell Fortune despite leading the total significant strikes 85-49. Tybura did, however, allow Fortune three of five takedowns and serious control time on the ground which ultimately led to the loss. He’ll be dealing with a much more seasoned striker in Rakic, but it could favor him knowing he’ll have a chance to display his striking arsenal to full effect.

At 40 years old, Tybura still feels a draw to compete at this level and given his former experience as a world kickboxing champ, this could be a fight where he turns back the clock and comes out with a vintage performance. It’ll take quick bursts of speed and sharp head movement, something Tybura is still capable of, for him to outsmart Rakic on the feet and earn the knockout victory.

Still, it’s worth noting that three of Tybura’s last five wins have come by way of decision as he favors a drawn-out battle on the feet. He could do so against Rakic if he isn’t too eager in shooting for a takedown and potentially putting himself in a bad spot.

Final Aleksandar Rakic-Marcin Tybura Prediction & Pick

Marcin Tybura will offer a strong challenge to Aleksandar Rakic during his heavyweight debut and it’ll be interesting to see what kind of weight Rakic puts onto his frame ahead of this fight. Tybura is still on the smaller side of the heavyweight scale and Rakic should match him well in terms of power.

Tybura should offer a competitive look in the first round and I don’t expect this fight to finish early. Recent opponents have struggled to get Tybura out of there quickly and we should expect a more measured approach out of Rakic considering he’s trying to avoid a fifth-straight loss.

Still, this seems like a perfect redemption arc for Rakic as he posses a tough matchup on the feet for Tybura with his reach and activity with the leg kicks. If his striking is crisp and on point, he should be able to take care of Tybura in the later rounds. Furthermore, appearing in front of his home country fans should give him an added boost in grinding out a tough win against a fellow veteran.

Final Aleksandar Rakic-Marcin Tybura Prediction & Pick: Aleksandar Rakic (-355); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-220)

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