Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez prediction, odds, pick for UFC Belgrade

The time has finally come for the UFC Fight Night Main Event from Belgrade, Serbia as we present a prediction and pick for the headlining bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. No. 14 Uros Medic of Serbia will take on California’s No. 15-ranked Daniel Rodriguez in an exciting scrap to cap the fights. Check our UFC Belgrade odds series for the Medic-Rodriguez prediction and pick.

Uros Medic (13-3) has gone 7-3 inside the UFC since his Contender Series debut in 2020. He’s won three-straight fights over Gilbert Urbina, Muslim Salikhov, and Geoff Neal all by knockout in the first round. He’ll feature in his first main event on home soil as the significant favorite. Medic stands 6-foot-1 with a 71-inch reach.

Daniel Rodriguez (20-5) is 10-4 inside the UFC since 2020, lastly beating Kevin Holland via unanimous decision during his last fight a year ago. The win marked three in a row after he suffered a three-fight slide, breaking through into the rankings with more work to do against Medic. Rodriguez stands 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch reach.

UFC Belgrade Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Belgrade Odds: Uros Medic-Daniel Rodriguez Odds

Uros Medic: -380

Daniel Rodriguez: +300

Over 1.5 rounds: +150

Under 1.5 rounds: -195

Why Uros Medic Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Geoff Neal – KO (left hook, R1)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Uros Medic has been on a collision course with the top-15 rankings and just when he couldn’t look any better on the feet, he comes out with a stunning left hook to put away Geoff Neal in the first round. Neal, widely regarded as one of the harder-hitting welterweights on the roster, was completely neutralized by Medic as he picked his finishing shot with great precision. As the UFC touches down in Serbia for the first time, Medic arrives to this main event spot at the height of his powers riding a knockout streak.

Medic is very calm in his striking stance and doesn’t give too much of a tell with what he’s going to throw. He marches forward into exchanges without much regard for his own safety, usually able to land before his opponent does. Rodriguez will offer a willing look for Medic to tee off, but he’ll have to be aware of the power coming back his way. We’ll see if Medic is able to contain his composure in front of a home crowd and not rush into anything against a dangerous opponent.

Medic will also be the much more active kicker, both with his low leg kicks and high head attempts. Watch for the body shot to be a consistent theme for Medic as he’s able to mix things up with uppercuts and kicks to the midsection.

Why Daniel Rodriguez Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Kevin Holland – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Daniel Rodriguez’ last performance over Kevin Holland was a gritty one as D-Rod threw most technique out the window and won a dog fight. That kind of bout was exactly what Rodriguez was expecting and he thrived being the more composed side during the chaotic exchanges. Expect Rodriguez to be more patient than usual in allowing Medic to expend himself and whiff on a number of attempts.

Daniel Rodriguez is great at taking a punch and returning with a check hook in the same instance. He can certainly generate more power than his opponent Medic and if they both choose to stand in the center of the octagon, Rodriguez could be the one walking away having done the more significant damage. Also be on the lookout for his overhand right hand as Medic has been known to leave himself open from there.

Medic will be heading into this fight with all the momentum in front of a home crowd, so it will be Rodriguez’ responsibility to take wind out of his sails and cut him off in the exchanges. Both fighters do a great job of cutting off the lateral movement, but Rodriguez will be the one meeting Medic with greater power on the counter punching.

Final Uros Medic-Daniel Rodriguez Prediction & Pick

This main event has fireworks written all over it as both Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez are incapable of a boring fight. Both men have an ability to stand in the middle of the pocket and thrive in chaotic exchanges, so it’ll be interesting to see who’s more willing to take a chance to win the fight.

Daniel Rodriguez is certainly more equipped to handle a five-round striking bout thanks to his steady pace, so this fight could be decided by whichever fighter is willing to manage their cardio more effectively. It’s interesting to see the total in rounds so low given the five-round environment.

Still, I think Uros Medic will be too sharp with his striking to allow Rodriguez any sort of prolonged momentum. Medic should be active with his kicks to all three levels, so we’ll roll with the home country favorite to walk away with his first main event win.

Final Uros Medic-Daniel Rodriguez Prediction & Pick: Uros Medic (-380); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+150)

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