Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling prediction, odds, pick for UFC Belgrade

UFC Belgrade: Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez continues on the main card with a fight between Jan Blachowicz and Navajo Stirling in the light heavyweight division. Check out our UFC Belgrade odds series for our Blachowicz-Stirling prediction and pick.

Jan Błachowicz (29-11-2) enters this weekend as the former light heavyweight champ but is mired in a five-fight winless skid, his last decisive victory dating back to a 2022 win over Aleksandar Rakic. He’s since drawn with Magomed Ankalaev and Bogdan Guskov while dropping decisions to Alex Pereira and Carlos Ulberg, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Navajo Stirling.

Navajo Stirling (10-0) enters UFC Belgrade undefeated, riding a six-fight UFC win streak and currently ranked #12 in the light heavyweight division. He most recently finished Ion Cutelaba by TKO in June and Bruno Lopes by second-round stoppage in March, showcasing genuine power to go with his unblemished record, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Jan Błachowicz.

UFC Belgrade Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Belgrade Odds: Jan Blachowicz-Navajo Stirling Odds

Jan Blachowicz: +250

Navajo Stirling: -310

Over 2.5 rounds: -215

Under 2.5 rounds: +165

Why Jan Blachowicz Will Win

Jan Błachowicz’s championship pedigree and experience against elite competition give him a real edge over an unproven Navajo Stirling at UFC Belgrade. Błachowicz has shared the cage with Alex Pereira, Magomed Ankalaev, and others, and even in a winless stretch, he’s remained competitive against arguably the best fighters in the division.

Stirling, meanwhile, built his perfect 10-0 record almost entirely against opponents outside Błachowicz’s tier, and this represents by far the toughest test of his career. That gap in level of competition could expose real holes in his game once he’s tested by a former champion’s veteran craft and durability.

Błachowicz also brings genuine finishing power and variety, with nine knockouts and nine submissions across his career, giving him multiple ways to end the fight if Stirling’s inexperience shows. His durability at the championship level, even in losses, suggests he won’t be easy for a rising prospect to simply blast out.

Given Błachowicz’s championship experience, well-rounded finishing arsenal, and the significant step-up in competition Stirling is facing, the veteran Pole has a legitimate case to spring the upset. Expect Błachowicz to weather Stirling’s power early and use his grappling and clinch craft to control the fight late.

Why Navajo Stirling Will Win

Navajo Stirling’s youth, power, and undefeated momentum give him a genuine edge over a fading Jan Błachowicz at UFC Belgrade. At 28 years old and riding a six-fight win streak inside the Octagon, Stirling holds a significant athleticism advantage over the 43-year-old former champion, and his six knockout wins show he has the power to finish fights at any moment.

Błachowicz enters on a five-fight winless skid, his longest drought in over a decade, and his last decisive victory came all the way back in 2022. That kind of prolonged struggle against elite competition suggests his skills may finally be eroding at the highest level, opening the door for a hungrier, fresher fighter like Stirling.

Stirling also holds a slight reach and size advantage at 6’4″ with a 79-inch reach, and he’s been significantly more active on the feet, landing 6.24 significant strikes per minute compared to Błachowicz’s 3.55. That volume disparity could allow Stirling to simply out-work the veteran over 15 minutes even if he can’t find an early finish.

Given Stirling’s youth, power, and superior recent form against Błachowicz’s extended winless run, the City Kickboxing product looks well-positioned to hand the former champion a fifth straight fight without a win.

Final Jan Blachowicz-Navajo Stirling Prediction & Pick

This co-main event pits Navajo Stirling’s youth and power against Jan Błachowicz’s championship experience, and the physical gulf between them looks significant. Stirling holds notable edges in age, activity, and volume, while riding a perfect 10-0 record into his toughest test yet.

Błachowicz’s five-fight winless skid against elite competition is a real concern, but his championship pedigree and finishing versatility, nine knockouts and nine submissions, mean he can never be fully written off. The gap in level of competition Stirling has faced compared to Błachowicz’s résumé remains the biggest question mark heading into Belgrade.

Expect Stirling’s youth and volume to eventually take over as the fight progresses, wearing down a veteran who hasn’t tasted victory in years. Look for Stirling to pull away in the second half and win by decision, extending his unbeaten streak to 11-0 at Błachowicz’s expense.

Final Jan Blachowicz-Navajo Stirling Prediction & Pick: Navajo Stirling (-310); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-215)

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