Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 119

It’s time for another prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 119: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 as we turn attention towards this next bout in the Flyweight (125) Division. Brazil’s Allan Nascimento will take on Massachusetts’ own Mitch Raposo in an exciting scrap on the Preliminary Card. Check our UFC odds series for the Nascimento-Raposo prediction and pick.

Allan Nascimento (22-6) is 4-1 inside the UFC since 2021, most recently earning a performance bonus with his win over Cody Durden via anaconda choke. Now stacking four consecutive wins, Nascimento will look to prevail as the betting favorite and revisit this matchup original scheduled for April 2026. Nascimento stands 5-foot-8 with a 69.5-inch reach.

Mitch Raposo (10-3) is 1-2 with the UFC since 2024 and earned his first promotional win over Azat Maksum via unanimous decision his last time out. He withdrew from this previous bout due to an illness, so the hope is that he’s healthy and ready to make an appearance come Saturday in the short underdog position. Raposo stands 5-foot-5 with a 64.5-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 119 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 119 Odds: Allan Nascimento-Mitch Raposo Odds

Allan Nascimento: -192

Mitch Raposo: +160

Over 2.5 rounds: -200

Under 2.5 rounds: +154

Why Allan Nascimento Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Cody Durden – SUB (anaconda choke, R2)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 16 SUB

Allan Nascimento rightfully earned a performance bonus with his anaconda choke over Cody Durden, putting away another dangerous opponent who is known for their sneaky submissions on the ground. Nascimento was slightly behind in the striking totals and actually gave up the only takedown of the fight to Durden, but he was able to quickly reverse positions and sink in the choke for the win. With 16 career submission wins under his belt, he’ll look to add his third win via the method as he searches for a fifth-straight win.

Nascimento’s striking is still behind his grappling by a significant margin, but he’s grown much more willing to stand and strike with opponents in hopes of softening them up for a takedown. His 37% takedown defense is much lower than one would think, but he’s much more active in forcing reversals on opponents and putting them in compromised spots once they decide to initiate the grappling against him.

During this fight, Nascimento should look towards his jiu jitsu early and often as one of Raposo’s three total losses has come by way of submission. He’ll have a much more difficult time trying to put Raposo away on the feet, so expect Nascimento to remain patient and wait for the perfect opportunity to strike once Raposo tries to grab a hold of him.

Why Mitch Raposo Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Azat Maksum – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Mitch Raposo notched his first UFC win over Azat Maksum during his last bout, overcoming an 0-2 start to his UFC run following an unsuccessful appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. His first two losses, however, came by way of split decision against Andre Lima and Sumudaerji, both fights that could have easily gone his way. He managed to out-strike Maksum 53-30 on the total significant strikes, so expect Raposo to try and put forth another dominant 15 minutes as he looks to add another decision win.

Raposo will definitely be outmatched in the grappling during this fight, but he’s actually landing more takedowns (2.54 avg.) per 15 minutes than Nascimento (1.26 avg.) and could see an advantage if he’s able to string his grappling together effectively. Raposo has also been strong popping his jab as opponents close the distance, so don’t be surprised if he’s able to find a home in it everytime Nascimento comes into range or tries to grab a hold of him.

During this bout, pace and pressure will be the key to Raposo’s success as he won’t be allowed much time to settle into a striking rhythm and force a kickboxing fight against Nascimento. Nascimento will likely turn up the heat if he’s down at any point of this fight, so Raposo will need to remain calm under pressure and lead the striking exchanges with that jab and a straight right hand.

Final Allan Nascimento-Mitch Raposo Prediction & Pick

This should be a close contest as both fighters share similar skill sets, but the stern grappling advantage goes to Allan Nascimento and his 16 wins by submission. Mitch Raposo stands a much better chance to win the fight if he’s able to force three rounds of stand-up kickboxing, but even initiating the grappling on his part could put him in a bad spot against the submission abilities of Nascimento.

I expect Raposo to have solid success on the feet early into this fight, but Nascimento should ultimately have the upper hand in finding a submission in the second half of this fight. He’s also riding a hot streak of wins and comes into this bout with all the momentum, so we’ll side with the slight favorite to come away with the win.

Final Allan Nascimento-Mitch Raposo Prediction & Pick: Allan Nascimento (-192); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+154)

The post Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 119 appeared first on ClutchPoints.