1 trade Padres must not make at 2026 MLB trade deadline

There may be some levity with the San Diego Padres about trades. But one player keeps appearing in rumors. However, here is one trade the Padres must not make at the 2026 MLB deadline.

First, let’s be realistic about where the Padres stand. They are 48-48 with a 12.5-game gap between them and the Dodgers. There’s no scenario where they catch the Dodgers this year.

A Wild Card spot looks more reachable. But it’s still a long shot at this point. The Padres are 3.5 games out with three teams ahead of them for the last spot.

So, should they trade one of their best players?

The Padres must not trade RP Mason Miller

To start down this road, let’s talk about what Miller brings to the team. He is the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball. That’s an advantage the Padres could carry into 2027. Miller is only 27 years old. He could dominate all the way into the next decade. It just doesn’t make good sense to let a guy like that go.

However, these are the Padres. And General Manager AJ Preller has been known to be unpredictable, according to MLB.com.

“As far as AJ goes, the only thing I know is I don’t know,” said an American League executive.

One thing that hurts about having Miller is the price the Padres paid for him. They surrendered Leo De Vries, who currently ranks as the No. 2 prospect in all of Major League Baseball, according to MLB.com.

What has De Vries done for the Athletics’ Double-A affiliate? The 19-year-old shortstop is hitting .286 with 11 homers, 39 RBIs, 31 stolen bases, an on-base percentage of .363, and an OPS of .809. Yikes.

So if the Padres trade Miller, they need to get something back that they lost in De Vries. Well, how would they do that? They would have to trade Miller to the Brewers for Jesús Made. Or they could deal with the Nationals for Eli Willits. Both play shortstop. Made is the No. 1-ranked prospect in baseball. Willits is No. 3.

Yeah, the Nationals aren’t in any kind of position to trade for Miller. Now, the Brewers might be. But would they trade Made? Let’s see, he’s hitting .276 with nine homers, 58 RBIs, 26 steals, and an OPS of .834. Uh, no thank you, say the Brewers. Besides, the Brewers’ bullpen is solid.

So one of the biggest reasons the Padres should not trade Miller is that they gave up so much to get him.

Would the Padres panic and trade Mason Miller?

At least one executive could see it happening, according to MLB.com.

“They have to consider it if they keep playing like this,” an NL executive said. “They won’t get De Vries-type value back for him, but they’ll still do well if they trade him.”

Another NL executive said, “I think they would really have to slide in order to move him. I’m not sure they would be able to recoup the prospect level they acquired him for last deadline, since there are few teams that are as aggressive as Preller at the deadline.”

Of course, there’s a monetary reason to deal Miller. He’s going to get more expensive, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

“Miller and the Padres agreed to a $4 million salary this season, avoiding arbitration in the reliever’s first year of eligibility,” Feinsand wrote. “As a Super Two, Miller will be arbitration-eligible for three more years, the type of club control that increases a player’s trade value.

“The best comparison to Miller in terms of his salary trend is Josh Hader, who was also a Super Two player, receiving four years of arbitration eligibility. Hader earned $4.1 million, $6.675 million, $11 million and $14.1 million in his four arbitration seasons, giving the Padres a general idea of what it will cost to keep Miller on a year-by-year basis.”

Why do the Padres need to keep Mason Miller?

It’s simply about the level of competitiveness. Even though the Padres haven’t been able to overcome the Dodgers in recent years, they have certainly tried. And they want to compete for the World Series.

So when 2027 rolls around, the Padres will need Miller at the back end of their bullpen to make a serious postseason run.

The current hitting lineup has been a major disappointment this year. But if some of those guys turn things back around, and the Padres add a couple of good free agents, a bat and a starting pitcher, they could knock on the Dodgers’ doorstep once again.

But they must have Miller to close the door, or they will be giving up assets at next year’s trade deadline trying to recoup what they already have. It’s better to keep him, and maybe the Padres’ bats come to life. If they make it into the postseason this year, that’s a bonus. And with Miller in the bullpen, postseason games are shortened to eight innings when the Padres lead. Bonus.

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