Why Hurricanes can win Stanley Cup after statement Game 4 victory

The Carolina Hurricanes have tied the Stanley Cup Final with the Vegas Golden Knights. It may have been the least stressful game of the series for the Hurricanes, as it was the only game not to see a blown lead result in a loss or overtime.

The Hurricanes took an early lead in the game, with Logan Stankoven scoring just 1:06 into the game. It did not take long for the Hurricanes to build on the lead, either, with Jackson Blake scoring the second goal of the game. Mark Stone tried to keep it tight by scoring in the first period, but a Jordan Stall power play goal made it 3-1 in the first period.

The Golden Knights tied the game up in the second period, with goals from William Karlsson and Brett Howden. Still, the Canes were able to shut the door with another goal by Stall in the third and then the empty net goal from Nikolaj Ehlers. With the series now tied at 2-2, the Hurricanes are in a prime position to win the Stanley Cup.

The best have yet to arrive at the Cup Final

The Hurricanes have yet to play a complete game. They took an early lead in Game 1, only to struggle at the end of the first period and start of the second, ultimately losing the game 5-4. In Game 2, the Hurricanes were down 2-0, giving up goals in the first and second periods. They would make the comeback in the third period and win in overtime. Game 3 saw the second-period disaster, giving up four goals in just over six minutes, including a hat trick to Mitch Marner. They would come back but lose in double overtime. They rebounded for a win in Game 4, but struggled in the second period. If the Canes can put together a full game of quality play, they should get two more wins.

Further, many of their top players have not played at their best. Sebastian Aho led the team in points and assists during the regular season. He has just four goals and seven assists in the playoffs, and has yet to score a goal in the Stanley Cup Final. Seth Jarvis was fourth on the team in points in the regular season and led the team in goals. He has just one goal and one assist so far in the series. The same holds for Andrei Avechnikov, who had 70 points in the regular season but just a goal and an assist in the playoffs. If the top players on the team can step up in the final two games, the Hurricanes will be lifting the Cup.

Game 5 looms large

The Carolina fans are rabid, even filling the Lenovo Center to watch Game 4 together.  It may be why the Hurricanes have been dominant at home so far this season. The Hurricanes went 29-10-2 at home in the regular season. Only the Boston Bruins at 29-11-1 were close to the same record at home this season. Being dominant at home is going to be huge for Game 5. Winning Game 5 could decide the series.

When the series has been tied at two games a piece in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the winner of Game 5 has won the series 79 percent of the time. It is 73 percent of the time in the Stanley Cup Final. It happened just last season. The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers were tied heading to Game 5. The Panthers won Game 5 by a 5-2 score and won the series in six games. It also happened in 2019. The St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins were tied after four games. The Blues took Game 5 and won the series in seven games. The 2017 Stanley Cup Final saw the Penguins win Game 5 over the Nashville Predators and then win the Cup. It also held true in 2017, 2015, and 2013.

The last time a series was tied at two games apiece, and the winner of Game 5 did not win the series, was in 2011. That year, the Vancouver Canucks won the first two games and then lost the next two. They would win Game 5, but then lose both Games 6 and 7.

Further, home teams are historically dominant in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Finals, winning nearly 80 percent of the time. The Chicago Blackhawks in 2015, St. Louis Blues in 2019, and Florida Panthers in 2025 all won Game 5 on the road to win the series. Still, with how good the Hurricanes have been at home, a win at home could easily be attainable. In the playoffs are 6-2 at home. They have played one Game 5 at home so far, and won the game 6-1. If they can win Game 5 here, the Hurricanes will be lifting the Cup for the first time since 2006.

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