USMNT path to quarterfinals looking a lot easier than expected

The USMNT is on to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 World Cup, winning Group D after just two matches. So, while USA-Turkey is still on the docket for Thursday, attention now turns to July 1 and beyond, where the Americans play in the win-or-go-home Round of 32. That alone is a feat, but if the USMNT can get to the quarterfinals and equal their best-ever finish in the modern World Cup, that would be incredible.

Heading into World Cup 2026, it actually looked like the USMNT’s path to the quarterfinals would be easier from the No. 2 seed in Group D. However, with the way the tournament is shaking out, the route to the quarters may be easier than expected.

Finishing first in Group D initially meant thousands of potential permutations that could have earned the U.S. a date with tough teams like Canada, Japan, Sweden, or even Norway. Now, with the way things are going, the most likely opponents are Bosnia and Herzegovina (58%), Qatar (18%), or Senegal (10%), according to The Athletic’s World Cup bracket tracker.

Mauricio Pochettino’s squad would likely be the favorites over all three teams, and fairly significant favorites against the first two.

After that, it was looking like a 2014 World Cup Round of 16 rematch with Belgium, which knocked the U.S. out of that tournament. Instead, Egypt and Czechia are the two most likely squads to face off below the USMNT in the bracket, and either of those teams is historically easier than the Red Devils.

Wins over Bosnia and Herzegovina and Egypt are entirely possible, which would put the USA in the quarterfinals for the first time since 2002. After that, the most likely opponent in the Round of 8 is Spain, which may be where this run ends.

Still, in the World Cup, you just never know, so there is always hope!

The post USMNT path to quarterfinals looking a lot easier than expected appeared first on ClutchPoints.