Rockets vs. Heat prediction, odds, pick – 2/28/2026

The Houston Rockets head to South Beach riding serious momentum. They will clash with the Miami Heat at Kaseya Center in a matchup that feels like a measuring-stick game for both sides. Houston enters as one of the Western Conference’s hottest teams. They hold the No. 3 seed and are surging at the right time. Meanwhile, Miami is battling to solidify its position in the Eastern Conference play-in race. That makes every home game critical.

This marks the first meeting between the teams this season after last year’s two-game split saw neither club defend its home floor. Miami is coming off a 124-117 loss to Philadelphia despite Bam Adebayo’s 29-point, 14-rebound effort and Tyler Herro’s 25 points and seven assists. That defeat snapped a five-game winning streak against the Sixers. On the other side, Houston erased a 19-point deficit to beat Orlando 113–108 behind Kevin Durant’s 40-point, eight-rebound performance. The Rockets have now won 22 of their last 27 games against Eastern Conference opponents. However, Houston has dropped seven straight road games without Jabari Smith Jr, who remains sidelined.

Rockets vs. Heat betting odds

Rockets: +2.5, -110
Heat: -2.5, -110
Over: 225.5, -110
Under: 225.5, -110

(All odds courtesy of Draftkings)

Rockets vs. Heat key injuries

Rockets: F Jabari Smith Jr (Ankle), F Jae’Sean Tate (Knee), C Steven Adams (Ankle), G Fred VanVleet (Knee)

Heat: F Nikola Jovic (Back), G Norman Powell (Groin), G Terry Rozier (Not Injury Related)

Rockets vs. Heat betting trends

The Rockets and Heat have played each other 29 times since the 2010-11 regular season. Historically, the Heat have held a clear edge in those head-to-head matchups with a 20-9 record. Houston won their most recent meeting, 102-98, in March of 2025. Before that, however, Miami had tallied nine straigh wins over the Rockets dating back to February 2021.

Entering this game, the Rockets are riding on a three-game win streak, with victories over the Jazz, Kings, and Magic. The Heat, meanwhile, have just booked back-to-back losses to the Bucks and Sixers.

Several betting trends do indicate that some key players could have marquee performancrs in this game:

• Jaime Jaquez Jr has recorded four or more rebounds in each of his last nine appearances against Western Conference opponents.
• Kevin Durant has scored 30+ points in each of his last six road appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
• Amen Thompson has recorded four or more assists in each of his last seven appearances after playing less than 30 minutes in the Rockets’ last game.
• Bam Adebayo has recorded four or more assists in each of the Heat’s last seven home games against Western Conference opponents.

2025 records:

Rockets: 37-21 straight up, 27-31 ATS; Heat: 31-29 straight up, 33-26-1 ATS

Over/Under:

Rockets 25-33; Heat 31-28-1

Keys to Rockets vs. Heat matchup

Houston Rockets

The first priority for Houston is to win the glass. The Rockets lead the NBA in rebounding at 48.3 boards per game. With Alperen Sengun’s physical presence and Amen Thompson’s length and athleticism, Houston must limit Miami’s second-chance opportunities. The Rockets must turn defensive rebounds into transition chances.

Kevin Durant’s efficiency will also loom large. In what figures to be a tight contest, having a closer averaging 26.1 points per game is a decisive edge. Durant’s ability to exploit Miami’s perimeter defense, especially with Powell sidelined, gives Houston a reliable late-game option.

Defensively, neutralizing Bam Adebayo is crucial. The Rockets rank third in defensive rating. Forcing Adebayo into tough mid-range attempts while keeping him off the offensive boards will stifle Miami’s interior attack.

Miami Heat

For Miami, three-point volume is the swing factor. The Heat average 13.5 made threes per game. Tyler Herro and Andrew Wiggins must stretch Houston’s elite interior defense. If the Heat can consistently hit from deep, they can force the Rockets out of their comfort zone.

With Powell out, the Heat need scoring by committee. Jaime Jaquez Jr and Kel’el Ware must help offset the 119.9 points per game Miami typically generates. The burden can’t fall solely on Herro and Adebayo.

Finally, protecting the paint is non-negotiable. Houston shoots 47.5 percent from the field. The Rockets thrive on Sengun’s low-post playmaking. Adebayo must anchor the defense and prevent easy kick-outs to shooters like Reed Sheppard.

Rockets vs. Heat prediction and pick

This is a classic clash of styles. Miami’s second-ranked offense will go against Houston’s third-ranked defense. The Heat are tough at home, but Powell’s injury significantly lowers their offensive floor.

Houston’s rebounding dominance and Durant’s late-game shot-making give the Rockets a slight edge in what should be a competitive, grind-it-out affair.

Final Score Prediction: Rockets 114, Heat 110
Spread: Rockets +2.5
Over/Under: Under 225.5

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