NFL award predictions for every major award, including MVP and Coach of the Year

The only thing more foolish than trying to predict the NFL is trying to predict the end-of-season awards in the NFL, but what can I say, I’m a fool. In truth, making these predictions early as an archive to catalog what we believed before the season began, then go back and see how much changed over the course of the year.

In 2025 it wouldn’t have been a major stretch to think that Matthew Stafford would win an MVP, or that Christian McCaffrey would take home Comeback Player of the Year honors — but the idea that Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be offensive player of the year, or that second round pick Carson Schwesinger would win defensive rookie of the year really took us by surprise.

Without further ado, let’s dive into the people we think could get individual honors at the end of the season, and a little about why.

Most Valuable Player: Josh Allen, QB — Buffalo Bills

Call me a hater, but I’m still not fully sold that Josh Allen deserved his first MVP award in 2024 over Joe Burrow — but in 2026 I think he’s going to lock this award down and it won’t even be close.

This is the best offense that Allen has had in years, and the addition of D.J. Moore at receiver has already been paying massive dividends. Dual-threat stat-stuffers will always be in the conversation, and I think Joe Brady has the tools now to unlock Allen even more. It really wouldn’t surprise me if Allen goes over 4,000 yards passing this year and 35+ total touchdowns. If that happens and the Bills have a dominant regular season (which I think they will), then he’ll walk away with the award easily.

Coach of the Year: Ben Johnson — Chicago Bears

The decision to pick Mike Vrabel over Ben Johnson or Liam Coen last year was understandable in the context of Vrabel getting the Pats to the Super Bowl in Year 1, but this is the season I think the offensive genius gets his flowers. There are a lot of expectations on the Bears this season, and I think this team will largely live up to them.

Part of this is historical context as much as anything else. Turning teams around is what’s won this award in each of the last six seasons, routinely awarding coaches for taking struggling teams and getting them into the playoffs. Kevin Stefanski did this twice with the Browns, heck Brian Daboll did it with the Giants.

At this point only a missed playoff berth in Chicago would keep Johnson from winning this award.

Offensive Player of the Year: Bijan Robinson, RB — Atlanta Falcons

Have you seen the Falcons’ quarterbacks? This comes down to a pretty simple equation where you have horrible QB play, and one of the best running backs in the NFL. There are going to be so many safety check down throws to Robinson in the backfield that he might lead the team in receptions, and he’s going to eat in the running game as well.

Robinson finished last year with over 2,200 all-purpose yards, which earned him fourth in OPOY honors. This season he goes over 2,500 and takes it home.

Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett, EDGE — Los Angeles Rams

Yeah, I’m being lazy here — so what? Until someone steps up and shows they can unseat Garrett it’s going to be his for the taking. If he remained in Cleveland I’m not sure there would be enough juice to make him take home the award, but in Los Angeles he’s going to put up just stupid numbers.

I don’t think it’s necessarily fair, because so many differentiating defensive back stats are advanced and don’t show up in the box score, but until we come up with a simpler way of evaluating DBs this is going to be a pass rusher and linebacker award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Carnell Tate, WR — Tennessee Titans

I like Tate for this award for the same reasons Tetairoa McMillan won in 2025. When you have a team trying to assert itself in the passing game and a young receiver who you want to develop rapport with a young QB, then they’re going to get a lot of targets.

Tate’s ability one-on-one is fantastic, and I think he’s going to haul in a lot of highlight-reel catches with Ward’s deep-ball ability. I liked the fit a lot on draft night, and I think it’s going to carry into year one.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Arvell Reese, LB — New York Giants

Reese was my 2nd-favorite defensive player in this draft (after Caleb Downs) because of his scheme versatility and ability to affect the game at every level. I love him inside a John Harbaugh defense, and feel that this is one of those fits that’s just so good it could reshape some thinking around defense when it comes to overloading on weapons.

When you pair Reese with that defensive line he’s going to get a lot of free looks. I can’t help but feel like he’s going to get sacks, force fumbles, stop the run, and even nab a couple of picks in the process. It’s going to be a big all-around year for the rook, and I think that causes him to cruise to the award.

Comeback Player of the Year: Patrick Mahomes, QB — Kansas City Chiefs

It feels like Mahomes could literally return this year, throw 20 picks, and still win Comeback Player of the Year. That won’t happen (the interceptions part), but he is going to run away with this award.

There is an outside chance we could see someone like Aaron Donald get a ton of votes, but technically it’s against the spirit of the award which is supposed to be for a player who suffered injury or hardship the year prior. That said, if Donald comes back to the NFL and gets 10.0 sacks then voters aren’t going to care what the award is for.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Mike McDaniel, Offensive Coordinator — Los Angeles Chargers

Last year we saw Josh McDaniels win for his work with Drake Maye in New England, and this year it’ll be Mike McDaniel for unlocking Justin Herbert. In totality, I don’t know if the Chargers quite have the gas yet to get over the hump, but I think offensively they’re going to be really good this year, and McDaniel’s creativity will be the reason why.