Jacob Malkoun vs. Gerald Meerschaert prediction, odds, pick for UFC Perth

It’s time for another prediction and pick at UFC Perth Fight Night, this next bout taking place in the Middleweight (185) Division. Australia’s own Jacob Malkoun will face off against longtime UFC vet and Milwaukee’s Gerald Meerschaert in one of the more lopsided betting matchups of the card. Check our UFC odds series for the Malkoun-Meerschaert prediction and pick.

Jacob Malkoun (9-3) has gone 5-3 inside the UFC since 2020. He beat Torrez Finney via unanimous decision his last time out, notching back-to-back wins and coming into this bout as the longest betting favorite of the card. Malkoun stands 5-foot-9 with a 73-inch reach.

Gerald Meerschaert (37-21) has gone 12-13 inside the UFC since debuting back in 2016. He’s currently on a four-fight losing streak that included a most submission finish, hoping to get back to an even record during his UFC tenure and turning his current luck around. Meerschaert stands 6-foot-1 with a 77.5-inch reach.

UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Perth Odds: Jacob Malkoun-Gerald Meerschaert Odds

Jacob Malkoun: -1100

Gerald Meerschaert: +700

Over 2.5 rounds: +140

Under 2.5 rounds: -180

Why Jacob Malkoun Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Torrez Finney – U DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO

Jacob Malkoun turned in another clean striking performance in his last bout against Torrez Finey, coming in the slight -145 betting favorite while totally dominating the significant strike totals 151-42. Malkoun was also active with his wrestling and secured two of eight takedowns while constantly keeping his opponent guessing with level changes. Now notching back-t0-back wins, he comes in the card’s biggest betting favorite with a chance to really gain some momentum with three wins in a row.

Standing at just 5-foot-9, Malkoun is typically undersized at middleweight, but packs a tremendous punch considering his size and deceptive explosiveness. He’s very strong in the clinch with his dirty boxing and is even more active with his wrestling, averaging 5.81 takedowns per three rounds while landing on 41% of his attempts. Meerschaert is defending takedowns at about the same rate, so it’ll be interesting to see how active Malkoun is with his takedown attempts early.

During this fight, Malkoun will have to be wary of the submission attempts coming from Meerschaert and watching where he puts his head during single and double-leg attempts. Meerschaert has been known to jump the guillotine, but Malkoun is typically very defensively-sound on the ground and has yet to be caught by submission despite spending a ton of time fighting opponents on the mat.

Why Gerald Meerschaert Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Kyle Daukaus – SUB (d’arce choke, R1)
• Last 5: 1-4
• Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 29 SUB

Gerald Meerschaert as now suffered four-straight losses, two of which have come on the ground by submission. Meerschaert has always been heralded for his ground game and leads the Middleweight Division in all-time submissions wins with 12. However, at 38 years old, he’s struggled to find his groove as of late and is working to get back to an even record on his decade-long UFC tenure. Once again, he comes in as the underdog in a spot he’s grown accustomed to the last few fights.

Gerald Meerschaert’s last few knockout losses have come against the likes of Khamzat Chimaev, Joe Pyfer, and Michal Oleksiejczuk, so he’s clearly willing to stand and mix things up on the feet against any opponent. Still, he’ll need to remain defensively aware as there’s no question his durability has been on the downturn the last few fights. Meerschaert should look to stay on the counter attack while using Malkoun’s aggression against him and forcing him to make a mistake.

From there, Meerschaert has proven an ability to come back while being down in fights and finding a way to force opponents where he’s most comfortable. He’ll have strong cardio on his side and if he’s able to use his size as an advantage on the ground, Meerschaert could give Malkoun some issues early with his dominant grappling.

Final Jacob Malkoun-Gerald Meerschaert Prediction & Pick

Jacob Malkoun should be hungry for the knockout throughout this fight as the home Australian fans will be hyping him up from his opening walk. Given Gerald Meerschaert’s recent losing skid, this could be the perfect opportunity to hang things up with a loss or go out on a high note with a win. Either way, this is a spot Meerschaert is familiar with and he’ll be looking to spoil the party with an unlikely submission win.

If Malkoun can remain patient early, he should be able to find Meerschaert’s chin with an eventually straight jab, sitting him down and ending the fight with follow-up strikes. However, the size difference on the ground could become an issue for Malkoun and we wouldn’t at all be surprised if Meerschaert can pull out an unlikely submission win.

Against better judgement, I think Meerschaert’s size advantage and skill on the ground could give him a chance to win this fight with his back against the wall. Let’s take a chance with the underdog to win by submission in this one.

Final Jacob Malkoun-Gerald Meerschaert Prediction & Pick: Gerald Meerschaert (+700)

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