How Rays can shock MLB world with Tarik Skubal trade

The Tampa Bay Rays have missed the playoffs the last two seasons. While a small market team, the Rays have had success in the past. Since 2008, they have made the playoffs nine times and won the American League twice, but they do not have a World Series title. Now, the team could be swinging big for Tarik Skubal, in the hopes of making a run at the World Series.

The Rays need a top-end ace pitcher if they want to contend in the American League. Nick Martinez has been great, going 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA. His performance this year is not consistent with his track record, though, and he could regress. Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen is 4-2 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, not the level of a top-quality ace. Finally, Shane McClanahan has been solid, going 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA, but he is pitching for the first time since 2023 this year.

Adding a pitcher like Skubal could take them over the top. Meanwhile, the Tigers are struggling. The team is 23-38 on the year, which places them in last place in the American League Central. With Skubal set to be a free agent at the end of the season, moving Skubal makes sense. Still, it will take two things from the Rays to make it happen.

The Rays have to understand the risk

Skubal went to arbitration with the Tigers this past offseason. The Tigers offered just $19 million, while Skubal requested $32 million. The star pitcher won his case, meaning he will make $32 million this season. The deal is just for this year, and at the end of the season, the two-time Cy Young winner will be an unrestricted free agent. This gives two risks for the Rays. The first is that they could be paying for a rental. Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, who will command a massive contract for his client. This is something that the Rays may not be willing to, or able to, pay at the end of the season.

Meanwhile, Skubal is currently injured. While he is projected to return to the lineup soon, he did need minimally invasive surgery to remove a bone chip in his elbow. There is no guarantee that Skubal will return to the lineup in the same dominant fashion. While the Rays could play the wait-and-see game to see if Skubal returns well, it could be risky if another team comes in and snags the all-star.

Tampa Bay will lose major prospects

The Rays will need to be willing to lose some of their top prospects to snag Skubal from the Tigers. The prospect haul for the Tigers will start with Nathan Flewelling. The 19-year-old catcher was a third-round selection in the 2024 MLB Draft. He is still seen as a raw talent, but with his size and skills, he has already shown that he could be a cornerstone piece of the future for the Tigers. He is currently playing at the High Single-A level with Bowling Green. So far this year, he is hitting .281 with a .386 on-base percentage. Further, he has shown more power this year, with ten home runs and 31 RBIs on the season.

The top pitching option in the Rays system is Brody Hopkins. Hopkins is currently pitching at the Triple-A level with the Durham Bulls. He is just 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA, but has limited the long ball well this year, while also striking out 55 batters. He is also adjusting well to the Triple-A level. In his last five outings, he has given up an earned run in just one of them.

The Rays could add another pitching prospect as a sweetener. That would be Santiago Suarez, who is just 1-years old. The Rays have not seen much of him since they picked him up in a trade. This year, he is pitching at the Triple-A level with the Montgomery Biscuits. He is 2-1 on the year in eight starts. Still, he has a 5.45 ERA. He has not been showing as much promise as Hopkins as of late, but he has the tools to develop into a quality pitcher.

The Rays have other options to throw in the deal. The team will likely want to keep top prospect Theo Gillen, while also keeping pitcher Anderson Britto if they are moving on from Hopkins. If the Tigers are looking for another pitcher, Michael Forret or TJ Nichols could also be options. If they are looking for another position player, 18-year-old Slater de Brun, an outfielder, would be attractive.

This deal will likely cost the Rays three of their top ten prospects, but it keeps a solid pipeline for the Rays in the future, while making a run at the title in 2026.

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