Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace predictions and betting tips – Eagles seek safe passage

Crystal Palace have one foot in the semi-finals of the Conference League at the midway point of this last-eight tie, but Oliver Glasner will not allow his players to get carried away.

Will Palace make it safely through at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, or can Fiorentina mount what would be an extraordinary comeback on home turf?

• Crystal Palace to win – 7/4 with 247Bet
• Under 2.5 goals – 4/5 with BoyleSports
• Ismaila Sarr to score any time – 13/5 with bet365

Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace odds

Find the latest Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace betting odds here. All odds are provided by our recommended football bookmakers and are subject to change.

Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace predictions

Before last week, it is fair to say Crystal Palace had not set the Conference League alight.

Ever since they were demoted into it by UEFA last summer, Oliver Glasner’s side have been the bookies’ favourites to win Europe’s tertiary competition.

But Palace missed out on a top-eight finish in the league phase, forcing them to go through an additional round before the last 16.

Palace beat Zrinjski Mostar 3-1 in that two-legged play-off, but the tie was in the balance until after second-half stoppage time in the second match.

The Eagles then needed extra time and a numerical advantage to see off Cypriot outfit AEK Larnaca, to whom they had lost in the league phase, in the round of 16.

But in the first leg of their quarter-final against Fiorentina, Palace arrived. Glasner’s men produced perhaps their standout performance of the season last week, vanquishing their Italian opposition 3-0 at Selhurst Park.

Jean-Philippe Mateta got the ball rolling from the penalty spot, before Tyrick Mitchell doubled Palace’s lead in the first half. A late Ismaila Sarr header put the Premier League outfit in a commanding position at the midway point of the tie.

“I liked our first-half performance and the last 20-25 minutes: how powerfully we played forward, how aggressively we attacked the box and went for the goal, all while remaining in balance,” Glasner said of his team’s display.

“We had 15-20 minutes when Fiorentina were more aggressive in the second half, they played man-to-man, and we lost the ball too easily. 

“They had two good chances, but then I think we had a great impact from our substitutions. In the end, we were closer to scoring a fourth than they were a first.”

Stylistically, Palace are not well suited to scenarios where they have the bulk of possession and are facing a side that sits deep and packs men behind the ball. That is the sort of challenge they have faced in the majority of their European assignments this season.

There was always hope among the club’s fan base that Palace would thrive in the latter stages against teams willing to take them on. That certainly proved to be the case when Fiorentina visited south London last Thursday.

The job is not done yet, though. Fiorentina have nothing to lose and that makes them potentially dangerous.

Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace betting tips

Crystal Palace still need to finish the job as they take on Fiorentina in the Conference League.

Palace to complete double

Crystal Palace warmed up for the second leg with a come-from-behind 2-1 victory over Newcastle United, a result which keeps them in contention for European qualification via the Premier League.

The Eagles had their problems in the middle portion of the campaign, but they have started to come good again.

Palace have won three games on the bounce for the first time since December, while just one of their last 10 fixtures in all competitions have ended in defeat.

Fiorentina could not match Palace’s physical or technical quality in the first leg, and those advantages will help Glasner’s men win in Italy too.

Tip Crystal Palace to win at 7/4 with 247Bet

Fewer goals this time

If there are under 2.5 goals on Thursday night, Crystal Palace will be safely through to the last four of the Conference League, where Shakhtar Donetsk or AZ await.

Glasner’s side must ensure they offer a threat going the other way, but defensive solidity should be their principal priority in Florence.

Palace’s away games tend to be relatively low-scoring. Their matches at opposition grounds in the Premier League have averaged 2.4 goals this season. 

This bet has also paid out in their last two away matches in the Conference League, making it worth a punt here.

Choose under 2.5 goals at 4/5 with BoyleSports

Sarr to strike again

After coming off the bench to score a brace against Newcastle United on Sunday, Mateta looks set to start up front in Florence ahead of Jorgen Strand Larsen.

Ismaila Sarr also began the Newcastle match among the substitutes, but the Senegal international will be back in the XI on Thursday.

Sarr has been Palace’s best attacking player this term. His header against Fiorentina was his 16th goal of 2025/26, which is more than any of his team-mates.

Sarr thrives when he is given space to run into. Fiorentina will need to take risks as they seek to wipe out a three-goal deficit, so Sarr should have plenty of room in which to operate.

Back Ismaila Sarr to score any time at 13/5 with bet365

Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace predicted lineups

• Fiorentina expected lineup: De Gea; Dodo, Rugani, Ranieri, Gosens; Fabbian, Mandragora, Ndour; Harrison, Piccoli, Fazzini.
• Crystal Palace expected lineup: Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Canvot; Munoz, Kamada, Wharton, Mitchell; Pino, Mateta, Sarr.

Where to watch Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace

• Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence, Italy.
• Date and time: Thursday 16th April, 8pm.
• How to watch: TNT Sports 3.

More Conference League predictions

We have plenty more Conference League predictions and picks – find our latest betting tips from expert punters in our match preview overview.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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