Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji prediction, odds, pick for UFC Shanghai

UFC Shanghai: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong continues on the main card with a fight between Alex Perez and Sumudaerji in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC Shanghai odds series for our Perez-Sumudaerji prediction and pick.

Alex Perez (26-10, 1 NC) is set for a rematch after his last meeting with Su Mudaerji ended in a no contest due to an accidental groin kick in May 2026, a bout that followed a first-round TKO win over Charles Johnson at UFC 324 that January, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Sumudaerji.

Sumudaerji (19-7, 1 NC) is set for a rematch against Alex Perez after their May 2026 bout ended in a no contest due to an accidental groin kick that left Perez unable to continue, a result that followed a clean unanimous decision win over Jesús Santos Aguilar in March 2026 to extend his winning stretch, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Alex Perez .

UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Shanghai Odds: Alex Perez-Sumudaerji Orolbai Odds

Alex Perez: +180

Sumudaerji: -218

Over 2.5 rounds: +100

Under 2.5 rounds: -130

Why Alex Perez Will Win

Alex Perez enters this rematch with a massive experience advantage, having compiled 37 professional fights against some of the flyweight division’s toughest names. That kind of championship-rounds pedigree gives him a deep well of tools to draw from against Sumudaerji, who has built most of his success against comparatively less battle-tested competition.

Perez also carries a unique scouting advantage into this fight, having already shared the cage with Sumudaerji once before their May 2026 meeting ended prematurely due to an accidental groin kick. That firsthand look at range, timing, and tendencies gives Perez a head start no other Sumudaerji opponent has had .

Perez’s finishing arsenal is genuinely diverse, with seven knockouts and seven submissions among his 26 career wins, showing he can win in multiple ways. Sumudaerji, despite his power, has only one submission in 19 career victories, suggesting his path to victory is far more one-dimensional if the fight goes to the mat .

Perez also enters off a sharp first-round TKO finish of Charles Johnson at UFC 324, proving his power and finishing instincts remain sharp even against live UFC-level competition.

Given his superior well-roundedness, unmatched experience, and unique tactical insight from their aborted first encounter, expect Perez to exploit any grappling opportunities and control the pace to a clear decision win.

Why Sumudaerji Will Win

Sumudaerji brings home-cage advantage into this rematch, fighting in front of a supportive Chinese crowd in Shanghai, an environment that has historically fueled Chinese fighters performing above expectations on these cards. That kind of crowd energy could push him through any early adversity against Alex Perez .

His power is legitimate, with 13 knockouts among his 19 career wins, an 68% finishing rate on the feet that makes him dangerous in every exchange. Perez, despite his own finishing ability, was submitted by Asu Almabayev as recently as November 2025, exposing real vulnerability on the mat that Sumudaerji’s power could exploit if he can keep the fight standing.

Perez’s 37-fight professional career, while impressive for its depth, also means significant accumulated damage over more than a decade of competition. Sumudaerji, comparatively fresher and younger, could benefit from that wear as the fight extends into the later rounds .

Sumudaerji’s recent unanimous decision win over Jesús Santos Aguilar showed he can also grind out rounds when needed, adding a dimension beyond his obvious knockout power.

If Sumudaerji can use his home-crowd momentum and heavy hands to press forward early, his power and freshness could be enough to finally finish what their first meeting left unresolved, securing a statement knockout win.

Final Alex Perez-Sumudaerji Prediction & Pick

Sumudaerji looks to settle unfinished business with Alex Perez at UFC Shanghai, running back their May 2026 bout that ended in a no contest after an accidental groin kick left Perez unable to continue in round two.

Fighting in front of his home crowd, Sumudaerji brings elite knockout power into this rematch, with 13 of his 19 career wins coming by knockout and 11 finished in the first round, a finishing rate that should worry Perez heading into the cage .

Sumudaerji enters as the betting favorite at -160 to -235 across sportsbooks, reflecting real confidence in his power and home-field advantage translating into a cleaner outcome this time around.

Expect Sumudaerji to pick up where the interrupted fight left off, pressing forward behind heavy hands and looking to close the show early.

Look for him to find the finish in the opening two rounds, avenging the no contest with a clean knockout win in front of an electric Shanghai crowd.

Final Alex Perez-Sumudaerji Prediction & Pick: Sumudaerji (-218); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-130)

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