3 reasons the Giants could make surprise 2026 NFL playoff noise

The New York Giants may get Malik Nabers back from the get-go, while their defense could take important strides forward. And despite the talk about the Cowboys and Eagles being the main NFC East voices, here are three reasons why the Giants could be this year’s surprise NFL team.

Last year went off the rails fast. After a 2-4 start, the Giants ripped off nine straight losses. They closed with a pair of wins to end the season with a record of 4-13.

This year, they have a new coach in John Harbaugh. And while it will take several things falling into place, the Giants may turn a lot of heads in 2026. It starts at the quarterback position.

QB Jaxson Dart ready to soar?

One thing seems certain about Dart. He has confidence. And that’s a big reason why the team was able to sign Calvin Austin III, according to the New York Post via giantswire.com.

“Anybody could tell you the Giants were the No. 1 team on my list because I saw the swagger, the composure, that thing you really can’t teach and that mentality Jaxson Dart had,” said Austin, a fourth-year veteran who gives the Giants an important depth piece. “Coach Harbaugh was the icing on the cake. Being under his program is something I was eager to [do] because we competed against each other.

“Talking to those guys before coming here was like, ‘We can build something special and take this league by surprise.’ One thing we’re all about is work, and we’re laying the foundation.”

Dart’s traits make him a prime candidate for a big second year, according to CBS Sports.

“Quarterbacks don’t usually break out because they throw for 4,000 yards as rookies,” Ryan Wilson wrote. “They break out because they already show the traits that consistently translate — efficiency comes before production and limiting mistakes comes before stardom. The breakout usually arrives later, a function of everything else coming together.”

Dart totaled 2,272 yards passing with 15 touchdowns. But there’s more than those somewhat uninspiring numbers.

“Dart consistently challenged defenses downfield while protecting the football — just five interceptions on 339 attempts — even after Malik Nabers was lost for the season in Dart’s first NFL start,” Wilson wrote.

One NFL analyst even went so far as to say Dart could be this year’s Drake Maye, according to Sports Illustrated. It’s a fantasy football take, but it holds up overall.

“Dart is my favorite breakout quarterback for this season,” Michael Fabiano wrote. “He finished 13th in points as a rookie, but he averaged more than 17 fantasy points in his 14 games (12 starts). A dual-threat quarterback, he rushed for 487 yards and nine touchdowns. Dart also found success as a passer, and he did it without his top option, Malik Nabers. With Nabers and Cam Skattebo back in action, Dart will have plenty of weapons and a terrific shot at being this year’s Drake Maye.”

If Dart develops into the type of quarterback that allows the Giants to consistently put points on the scoreboard, this team has a chance to reach double-digit wins. And if Dart’s improvements grow throughout the season, he would be primed for playoff success as well.

However, the first step is settling into a new offense, according to ESPN.

“You’re getting a big install each and every day,” Dart said. “So, you just continue to learn, continue to get reps at things and have a lot of really valuable communication.”

What would help Dart immensely is a healthy season from wide receiver Malik Nabers. He may be back on the field in Week 1. But if he’s only performing at about 80% of his capability this season as he returns from the ACL surgery, the Giants won’t have the receiver firepower they need. Although there have been good signs in training camp that rookie third-round pick Malachi Fields could help this season.

HC John Harbaugh will make a big difference

Let’s not put too much on Harbaugh’s plate. He didn’t inherit a juggernaut of a team. But here’s the thing. If Dart becomes a successful quarterback, Harbaugh knows how to weave the winning formula throughout the rest of the team.

Harbaugh has a career record of 180-113. He has three losing seasons in his 18-year head coaching career, and two of those were 8-9 finishes. The man knows how to win.

Harbaugh said he believes the Giants have made progress in training camp, according to giantswire.com.

“I think we got a lot better,” Harbaugh said. “That’s probably what we got out of it. We improved tremendously. We’re much further along than we were when we started. I think we can look back and say that we’ve come a long way. I mean, the competition is really tough in this league, and every team is doing the same thing.

“You’re in a race every single day to be at least the best you can be. And everybody’s trying to do the same thing in the NFL, so that’s why it’s so tough, but I thought our guys did a good job. I’m happy with where we’re at. It’s just a matter of keeping your head down and staying after it every day. Never taking a breath in terms of your mindset and determination to get better.”

One thing that helps Harbaugh’s cause is the Commanders’ recent injury loss of Laremy Tunsil. The standout left tackle could miss a significant portion of the season, and it’s a devastating blow to the Commanders’ playoff hopes. That’s just one easier step for the Giants.

The defense has to be solid

In order to walk alongside the Cowboys and Eagles, the Giants will have to be good on defense. And that means DJ Reader will need to perform better than his No. 26 ranking among defensive interior players, according to Pro Football Focus.

“Reader’s play in Detroit didn’t reach the heights of what we saw from him with the Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals, but he was still solid,” Gordon McGuinness wrote. “In his 10-year career, he has never had a season with a PFF pass-rush or run-defense grade lower than 60.0. He should be a solid player for a Giants team that traded away Dexter Lawrence.”

The good news is the Giants should be able to get decent pressure from the edge. Abdul Carter ranked No. 16 among edge rushers while Brian Burns landed at No. 20, according to PFF.

“Relatively low sack production caused a strong rookie season from Carter to fly a little bit under the radar,” McGuinness wrote. “His 84.5 PFF pass-rush grade was the 10th-best among edge defenders, while his 18 quarterback hits were tied for fifth-most at the position. Given what we know about pressure rate and sack rate, if he even just performs as he did as a rookie in 2026, that sack production will likely increase, and that’s not factoring in a probable step forward in his second year.”

Meanwhile, Burns is coming off a career-high 29 combined sacks and quarterback hits in 2025.

“(Burns) has earned a PFF pass-rush grade above 70.0 in all seven of his years in the NFL,” McGuinness wrote. “He hasn’t been able to consistently produce at an elite level as a pass-rusher, but has still been good enough to form a formidable duo with Carter heading into the 2026 campaign.”

If off-ball linebacker Arvell Reese has the rookie year the Giants are expecting, and the secondary holds up, this could be a fairly strong unit.

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