3 players who will make or break Cubs’ chances of winning NL Central

The Chicago Cubs enter Wednesday at 70-50, four games behind the 74-46 Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Both clubs have 42 games remaining, allowing the Cubs enough time to erase the deficit.

The race could hinge on seven remaining meetings between the contenders, including four at Wrigley Field from August 31 through September 3. The Brewers lead the season series 4-2, meaning the Cubs must win five of those seven games to secure the head-to-head tiebreaker. With 48 days remaining until the Wild Card Series begins in late September, Chicago must capitalize on its easier projected schedule and strong run differential. Ultimately, Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga, and Alex Bregman could determine whether the Cubs gain enough ground to overtake Milwaukee in the standings.

Kevin Gausman must give Cubs a second frontline starter

Kevin Gausman arrived at the trade deadline to reduce uncertainty, not add another variable. He should make about eight starts, potentially two vs. the Brewers.

His 6-10 record and 4.29 ERA do not inspire immediate confidence, but they understate how well he has pitched. Gausman has 131 strikeouts against 37 walks across 134 1/3 innings. His 3.82 FIP and 3.53 xFIP suggest that his results have been worse than his underlying performance.

Gausman showed upside in his Cubs debut, limiting the Kansas City Royals to two runs, four hits, and one walk over seven innings. Chicago needs that version consistently. Six-inning starts with an ERA below 4.00 would protect a bullpen that has endured injuries and frequent late-game pressure.

Short, homer-prone outings would force the club to cover too many middle innings and weaken its relief options on surrounding days. The Cubs acquired Gausman to win meaningful rotation matchups. Anything less would leave their deadline solution unable to solve the problem it targeted.

Shota Imanaga must keep the home-run risk under control

Shota Imanaga has provided volume that the Cubs cannot easily replace. He owns a 3.74 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts through 137 1/3 innings. He entered his Tuesday start with a 1.21 ERA over his previous five outings, suggesting he can anchor the rotation beside Gausman.

Yet Imanaga has allowed 28 home runs, pushing his FIP to 4.56 despite strong command. Tuesday’s outing vs. the Washington Nationals illustrated that vulnerability. He surrendered three homers and four runs in 4 2/3 innings, forcing the bullpen to record 13 outs in an 8-6 victory.

The Cubs do not need Imanaga to eliminate home runs entirely. They need him to limit the damage to solo shots, avoid extended innings, and consistently pitch into the sixth. Doing so would prevent one mistake from affecting several surrounding games.

Chicago’s 622 runs scored and plus-109 run differential reveal a team built to support good starting pitching. Imanaga can preserve that advantage by avoiding multi-run innings. If his home-run susceptibility instead shortens starts, the rotation could squander the offensive margin that makes a comeback feasible.

Alex Bregman must turn contact into middle-of-the-order damage

Alex Bregman represents the lineup’s clearest source of attainable improvement. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki have already performed like foundational hitters. Bregman has produced a more ordinary .251/.341/.388 line and 105 wRC+, leaving Chicago without the consistent third force it expected.

His second-half work offers a credible path forward. Bregman is batting .292/.358/.500 with an .858 OPS since the break. He also owns a 16% strikeout rate, an elite contact skill that should extend innings and create RBI opportunities behind the Cubs’ best hitters.

The rebound still requires caution. Bregman’s 4.4% barrel rate and .311 expected wOBA do not support a dramatic power surge. He must pair selective aggression with more doubles and enough home-run damage to punish pitchers for attacking the zone.

That production would lengthen the lineup and reduce Chicago’s dependence on Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki. However, a return to his .648 OPS from June would allow opponents to pitch around the Cubs’ leading threats. In a division race that several close games could decide, Bregman’s ability to capitalize with runners on base makes him a pivotal factor.

The club currently holds a strong Wild Card cushion, but that safety net will not help it overtake Milwaukee. Winning the division will require stronger work atop the rotation and more consistent production throughout the lineup. If Gausman, Imanaga, and Bregman deliver, especially during those seven head-to-head meetings, the Cubs can erase their four-game deficit and claim first place.

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