Why Garrett Crochet will upset Tarik Skubal in 2026 AL Cy Young race

Tarik Skubal has been the dominant pitcher in the American League each of the last two seasons. The left-hander has given the Detroit Tigers an edge every time he takes the mound. Skubal has won back-to-back Cy Young Awards, and the 6-year veteran appears to have mastered the art of getting outs in crucial situations. He is a 29-year-old master of his craft and there may be no slowing him down.

As good as Skubal has been, there is a pitcher that is mounting a charge. Garrett Crochet of the Boston Red Sox is coming off a brilliant season of his own and he is the likely key to the Red Sox earning a spot in the playoffs in the upcoming season.

The belief here is that Crochet can find a way to upstage Skubal this season and win the 2026 Cy Young Award.

Crochet was traded to the Red Sox after the 2024 season by the brutal Chicago White Sox. That team set the post-expansion record for the most losses in a season, but Crochet’s development was a bright spot for the South Siders. The Red Sox took notice and made a significant deal to acquire his services.

The presence of a solid team like the Red Sox served as a spur for Crochet. The Red Sox were hoping he could turn into a steady starter who could take his turn on the mound every fifth game and give the team a chance to win. Crochet delivered much more than that. He became a major star and he was the key to the team earning a playoff spot for the first time since the 2021 season.

Crochet shows off leadership and power on the mound

The 6-6, 245-pound pitcher made 32 starts for the Red Sox last season. He displayed incredible drive off the mound as he led the American League with 255 strikeouts in 205.1 innings. He demonstrated excellent velocity and control with his fastball and he regularly used his signature slider as his strikeout pitch.

Crochet finished the season with an eye-catching 18-5 record and a 2.58 earned run average. The numbers were special, but it was his attitude and desire that stood out to Red Sox manager Alex Cora. He saw a pitcher who wanted to be the leader for his new team and delivered on an every-start basis.

“Garrett’s the guy that continues the winning streak and stops the losing streaks,” Cora said, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “And it’s six innings, seven innings, taking care of everybody. You need that guy and we have him.”

Crochet knows that Skubal has his two Cy Young Awards and that Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates has one in the National League. Those two pitchers are regularly considered the best in baseball, and Crochet desperately wants to join them.

“I feel like last year I kind of put myself in that conversation,” Crochet said. “But the two guys that I feel like are ahead of me obviously have the hardware. It’s not like I’m looking to dethrone those guys because at the end of the day it’s a team game. But I feel like already when I step on the mound there’s a little bit of extra game-planning going on for me.”

Skubal could be trade at some point

While Crochet made tremendous progress last year, it will still take a substantial effort to equal or better Skubal in the upcoming season. The Tigers pitcher is incredibly polished and he has an excellent idea of how to get through the most difficult innings against the most dangerous opponents.

Skubal has tremendous confidence in his ability to come through for his team, but he has not been able to come to an agreement with the Tigers on a new long-term contract. He has an arbitration-settled one-year deal that will pay him $32 million this season, but he is schedule to be a free agent in 2027. The last thing the Tigers want to do is lose Skubal and not get anything in return. He could get traded during the season.

Skubal is certainly a cool customer on the mound and if he does get traded within the American League, he is not likely to panic and lose his focus. However, it could take him some time to adjust to his new surroundings and just 2 or 3 problematic starts could cost him a chance for a third straight Cy Young.  If he is traded to a National League team, that would eliminate him from AL Cy Young consideration.

Crochet could take advantage of that situation and take the Cy Young from Skubal. Even if he is not traded, Crochet could simply have the better season. He has the confidence, power, pitching mix and overall skill to move to the top of the American League pitching ladder. The Red Sox are counting on him, and he appears to thrive on pressure at this point in his career.

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