Trevor Lawrence’s elite Jaguars future rests in these wobbly hands

It’s hard to know exactly what the Jacksonville Jaguars’ receiving group will look like this year. And will their big-dollar tight end prove to be a value? But quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s elite Jaguars future rests in the wobbly hands of the receiver room.

It’s a stat that no NFL offensive coordinator wants to see. The Jaguars’ receivers dropped 40 of 417 catchable targets, posting a league-high 9.6% drop rate, according to Pro Football Focus.

Think about that for a moment. The coordinator could draw up a brilliant plan to scheme open a receiver. The receiver could run a great route and beat the defensive back. The offensive line could work in harmony and give Lawrence plenty of time to find his target. Lawrence could deliver a pass that hits the receiver in stride right in the hands.

Perfect, right? But then the ball hits the turf.

Jaguars’ success may hinge on receivers’ hands

First, let’s look at what Lawrence accomplished in 2025. He led the team to a 13-4 record and came agonizingly close to a playoff win over the Bills. He threw for 4,007 yards with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

But that completion percentage stood at just 60.9%. If the receivers had caught half of those catchable dropped passes, Lawrence would have been close to 65%.

And it’s not just the cold numbers. Look at the aforementioned description of a dropped pass. It’s not just a number. It’s debilitating to an offense. Anywhere from a 10- to 30-yard gain becomes basically a loss of a down. It can kill a drive, kill overall momentum, and create a negative atmosphere on the field.

The most egregious dropped pass total came from Brian Thomas. For all of his obvious ability, Thomas tied for second in the NFL with 10 dropped passes. And it crumbled his effectiveness.

Parker Washington was tied for No. 11 with seven drops.

Thomas received 42 fewer targets in 2025 than he did in his rookie year, when he earned a Pro Bowl honor with 1,282 yards receiving on 87 catches. He finished with 48 catches for 707 yards last season. His touchdowns fell from 10 to 2.

And yet, this is the guy the Jaguars plan to be their WR1 again this year. With Jakobi Meyers, Washington, and part-time receiver Travis Hunter behind him, Thomas must bounce back in 2026 if Lawrence is going to get his due.

However, there is hope in terms of overall talent.

“Jaguars pass catchers combined for 32 receiving touchdowns, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL,” Daire Carragher wrote. “They also averaged 11.7 yards per reception and recorded 57 contested catches, both figures ranking inside the league’s top 10.”

QB Trevor Lawrence may be hitting his stride

The numbers suggest it.

“(Lawrence) produced the best season of his career in 2025, earning a PFF passing grade above 80.0 for the first time,” Carragher wrote. “After several seasons showing flashes without consistently putting everything together, he took another step forward in Liam Coen’s first season as head coach.”

And the step forward came in the form of slowing things down.

“Coen’s system incorporates longer-developing route concepts, requiring the quarterback to be more patient,” Carragher wrote. “Lawrence consequently slowed all the way down to 21st in average time to throw in 2025.”

But Lawrence didn’t get his flowers. When it came time to rank the NFL’s Top 10 quarterbacks, he slotted in at No. 16. That’s a major slap in the face, according to Sports Illustrated.

“Even in the summary of Lawrence’s place on the list, which places him above fellow AFC South quarterbacks Daniel Jones (No. 19) and C.J. Stroud (No. 20). Lawrence receives a backhanded compliment more than anything else,” John Shipley wrote.

The only love Lawrence got came from a veteran AFC offensive coach, according to ESPN.

“He has controlled his turnovers and just has a better understanding of what defenses are trying to do against him,” the coach said. “He plays better ball when the offensive infrastructure and personnel around him set him up for success instead of asking him to do everything on your own. Liam [Coen] did a nice job in Year 1 of giving him the answers to the test pre-snap.”

There’s a lot of proving left for Lawrence. Maybe Thomas will catch more passes, and perhaps tight end Brenton Strange will emerge as the breakout candidate the Jaguars are hoping for in 2026.

If things fall into place, the Jaguars could be a serious threat for playoff noise. There’s enough talent for the team to be in the mix. But they will have to play more consistently on offense. And that starts with the receivers. Coen got off to a great start to his head coaching career. If that is going to continue, he needs Lawrence to reach elite status.

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