Southampton vs Middlesbrough betting tips and predictions: Saints set for second Wembley visit?

Southampton and Middlesbrough renew their rivalry in the second-leg of the Championship playoff semi final.

The Saints will fancy their chances on home soil to reach the richest game in club football, with the first leg ending in a 0-0 stalemate.

Southampton v Middlesbrough best bets

• Cyle Larin to score anytime – 7/4 with Sky Bet
• Over 29 shots in the game – 1/1 with Sky Bet
• Southampton to win and both teams to score – 3/1 with BOYLE Sports

Southampton v Middlesbrough head to head overview

• Date: Tuesday 12th May 2026
• Kick-off: 8PM
• Venue: St. Mary’s Stadium, Southampton, UK
• How to watch: Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Ultra HDR
• Referee: Andy Madley
• Last meeting: Middlesbrough 0-0 Southampton (Sat 9 May 2026)
• Last 10 matches: Southampton – 4 wins; Middlesbrough – 3 wins; Draws – 3
• Favourite to win: Southampton – 13/10

Southampton v Middlesbrough predicted lineups

Southampton (4-2-3-1): Peretz; Bree, Harwood-Bellis, Wood, Manning; Charles, Jelert; Fellows, Azaz, Scienza; Stewart

Middlesbrough (3-4-3): Brynn; Ayling, Fry, Malanda; Brittain, Morris, Browne, Targett; Whittaker, Conway, McGree

Southampton vs Middlesbrough prediction

This second-leg will still be shrouded in the off field controversy that dominated last week’s first-leg, with Southampton being charged with two breaches of regulations by the EFL.

This after Middlesbrough claim they found a Southampton ‘spy’ observing their training a couple of days before the first leg. 

‘Boro came out like an express train at the Riverside but failed to get on the scoresheet when they had their best periods in the first leg. Which leaves the tie finely-poised going into Tuesday’s match.

Only Coventry (16.3 game average) had more shots than Boro (16.2) in the regular season, with 21 coming and five on target in that first leg draw.

Southampton could only throw six in return, and it’s fair they were limited to bits and pieces. When the full time whistle went, you’d imagine they’ll be pleased with the final outcome.

Middlesbrough found themselves in the automatic promotion fight for the vast majority of the Championship season but would eventually finish fifth on 80 points from their 46 games, four short of the top two.

Meanwhile the Saints are hunting an immediate return to the Premier League. Which looked a near on impossibility before Tonda Eckert took over in November.

It was a run of 20 matches unbeaten in all competitions that took the club within a sniff of automatic promotion and to a FA Cup semi final at Wembley stadium.

Can they punch their ticket back to another Wembley showpiece or will Middlesbrough move a step closer to ending their eight year Premier League exile?

Southampton v Middlesbrough betting tips

Shooting practice

Southampton’s 2-2 draw with Ipswich – their last home game – delivered a total of 37, while there were 31 in Boro’s previous away outing at Wrexham (another 2-2 draw).

Elsewhere, Boro had 33 shots when they visited Ipswich while they had 18 in defeat to Coventry in February. Both teams claimed the automatic promotion spots.

It hasn’t just been a case of simply bumping up their shots total tally when playing the poorer sides in the division.

In fact, they’ve registered a double figure shots count in 41 of their 47 league outings this season – the same applying in 21 of 23 on the road.

We’ve gone with over 29 shots in this game, as the both teams desperately try to seal their ticket to the Wembley final.

Saints go marching on

Southampton’s home form is excellent, having not lost at St. Mary’s under Eckert.

From 21st January to 14th April is where the Saints did their xxx work catapulting them into promotion contention. Eckert’s men went undefeated, winning seven of eight matches.

They did keep six clean sheets in that time, but Boro have only hit a blank four times since February and will surely get on the scoresheet if they play anything like they did on Saturday.

Southampton v Middlesbrough latest odds

Find the latest Southampton v Middlesbrough betting odds here, odds courtesy of Sky Bet and are subject to change.

• Southampton – 13/10
• Draw – 23/10
• Middlesbrough – 15/8

• Cyle Larin to score anytime – 7/4 with Sky Bet
• Over 29 shots in the game – 1/1 with Sky Bet
• Southampton to win and both teams to score – 3/1 with BOYLE Sports

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