Premier League winner odds as the 2025/26 season heats up: Arsenal now in pole position

Jan 20, 2026 - 16:15

Having been Christmas number one in the Premier League, Arsenal have extended their lead at the top of the table in the first few weeks of 2026 and are odds-on favourites to win their first title since the year of the Invincibles.

Closest challengers Manchester City have yet to win in the new year, drawing three in a row before losing the Manchester derby. Aston Villa’s surge up the table suffered a setback recently against Everton, and Liverpool haven’t been able to fully recover from their autumn slump.

The North Londoners are seven points clear at the time of writing and the latest Premier League winner odds suggest that their 22-year wait for a title may finally be coming to an end in May.

Here is our analysis of the runners and riders in what now appears to be a three-horse race.

Latest Premier League winner odds

Here are the odds from our recommended football bookies:

Arsenal – 2/11 with bet365
Manchester City – 5/1 with BetMGM
Aston Villa – 50/1 with Sky Bet
Liverpool – 175/1 with AK Bets
Manchester United – 200/1 with Betfred
Chelsea – 300/1 with Paddy Power
Sunderland – 1000/1 with William Hill
Brighton & Hove Albion – 1000/1 with talkSPORT BET
Newcastle United – 1000/1 with Tote
Brentford – 1000/1 with BetMGM
Everton – 1000/1 with Betway
Fulham – 1500/1 with BetVictor
Tottenham Hotspur – 1500/1 with Tote
Bournemouth – 2000/1 with bet365
Crystal Palace – 2000/1 with Paddy Power
Leeds United – 2000/1 with Betfred
Nottingham Forest – 2500/1 with William Hill
West Ham United – 4000/1 with Tote
Burnley – 5000/1 with Betfred
Wolverhampton Wanderers – 5000/1 with Betfred

*Odds are subject to change (Updated on 20th January).

Premier League table

Favourites to win the Premier League 2025/26 title

Here are the favourites for the Premier League title just after the halfway point.

Arsenal – 2/11

Only twice in Premier League history has a team finished second in three consecutive seasons. The first was Arsenal between 1998/99 and 2000/01. The second was also The Gunners between 2022/23 and 2024/25.

Needless to say, Mikel Arteta’s men are desperate to take that one last step. While the core of the team that is starting most weeks was already in place last season, the summer signings have proved to be vital additions with Martin Zubimendi a mainstay in midfield, Noni Madueke contributing vital goals and assists, and Viktor Gyökeres offering a bona fide centre forward threat – even if his goals return has been disappointing so far.

Once again, however, Arsenal’s challenge has been built off of their defensive resilience. They’ve conceded just 14 times in 22 games and have kept clean sheets in half of those.

They’ve also responded well to their two defeats – which came at Anfield and Villa Park. After the 1-0 loss to Liverpool, they went on to win six and draw two of their next eight. Following the late sucker-punch against Villa, they won five in a row.

The Gunners’ squad will be tested as the season goes on, should they progress deep into all competitions. They have one foot in the Carabao Cup final, are top of the Champions League table and are into the 4th round of the FA Cup.

Last season, their focus shifted to Europe as they advanced to the semi-finals while their Premier League challenge faded away. There can be no doubt, however, what the number one priority is this time.

Back Arsenal to end their wait for a Premier League title at 2/11 with bet365

Manchester City – 5/1

In 2023/24, Manchester City became the first team in English football history to win a fourth league title in a row. Then came the crash. City’s collapse last term seemed completely unfathomable given their dominance during the Pep Guardiola era. They ultimately recovered to finish third – disappointing rather than disastrous – but City looked like a shadow of their former selves.

While City have been more consistent this season, they haven’t yet returned to being the irresistible force they have been in previous years. They were beginning to put together an ominous run of wins before the new year, reminiscent of previous streaks which have blown away the likes of Arsenal and Liverpool in recent title races.

Four games into 2026, however, they are yet to win a league game and have fallen seven points behind – most recently losing the Manchester derby after draws against Sunderland, Chelsea and Brighton.

City, however, have been serial winners ever since Pep arrived and the home fixture against Arsenal in mid-April could still be something of a showdown.

Choose Manchester City as your Premier League winner at 5/1 with BetMGM

Aston Villa – 50/1

Unai Emery is continuing to do an outstanding job at Villa Park and has pundits genuinely debating as to whether they can stay in the title fight until the end.

Under the Spaniard, Villa have finished no lower than seventh, but to be up in third and level on points with Man City having picked up just three points in their first five games is nothing short of outstanding. They also had to wait until the second half of the fifth game to even score a goal this season! They went on to win twelve of the next thirteen.

With neither Arsenal or Man City winning last weekend, a rare 1-0 home defeat to Everton looks like an opportunity lost – a win there would’ve put them within four of the summit.

Should the title race go down to the last couple of weekends, Villa host Liverpool and then finish at the Etihad! It may still seem unlikely that the West Midlanders will still have a shot at glory at that point, but 50/1 as of mid-to-late January is a great price.

Tip Aston Villa to win a first-ever Premier League winner at 50/1 with Sky Bet

Can anyone else emerge in the Premier League winner odds?

With less than half of the season to go, anyone outside of the top three in the table are very unlikely to be able to make up the gap – and this is also where the Premier League winner odds start to widen massively.

Liverpool‘s title defence fell apart spectacularly during a horrendous run in the autumn, in which they lost six games in seven. They haven’t lost since, but have drawn several times – they’re fourteen behind Arsenal.

Manchester United are set to finish much, much higher in the table than their disastrous bottom-half performance last time around but haven’t ever been in the title conversation – they’ve only won back-to-back games once this season.

After winning the Conference League and Club World Cup, hopes were high in West London that this could be the season that Chelsea return as domestic contenders. It hasn’t panned out, however, and after a poor festive period, Enzo Maresca found himself on the chopping block on New Year’s Day.

As it stands, these three will be fighting over fourth place.

My Premier League title race betting tips

Here are four suggested Premier League bets for the remainder of the season, focusing on the title race and similar markets.

Arsenal & Man City to finish in 1st and 2nd

It looks as though Arsenal’s time has come and that there will never be a better opportunity to win a first Premier League title since moving to the Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners look the most well-balanced team, and are the toughest to beat, and score against.

They should expect Man City to close the gap at some point, however, and apply pressure right until the final weeks of the season – possibly until the very last day.

Wager on an Arsenal/Man City straight forecast at 2/9 with BetVictor

Liverpool to finish in the top four – 4/6

Of the three teams on the outside of the title race, looking in, Liverpool seem to be the steadiest ship right now – despite the ongoing Mo Salah sitation!

Anfield’s “Egyptian King” appeared to have ended his own Liverpool career with an explosive interview before the Africa Cup of Nations, and it’ll be interesting to see what role (if any) he plays now that the tournament has finished.

In Arne Slot, they have a much more experienced manager than Manchester United and Chelsea – who have moved to bring in Michael Carrick and Liam Rosenior respectively in recent weeks. The former is also merely an interim appointment.

With Salah’s future at the club in serious doubt, Liverpool fans will have been pleased to see summer signing Florian Wirtz score his first three Liverpool goals in his last five Premier League games. Meanwhile, Hugo Ekitike has impressed up top and their title-winning spine remains in tact.

Back Liverpool to finish in the top four at 4/6 with Sky Bet

Erling Haaland to win PFA Player of the Year – 7/4

Man City’s goal machine has already plundered 20 goals and has one hand on the Golden Boot – so there’s very little value to be had in that market. Instead, let’s take a look at PFA Player of the Year which, according to the bookies, is a much closer contest.

Arsenal’s midfield maestro Declan Rice has risen to 4/5 in several places, making him the new favourite for the award. The big Norwegian is next at 7/4, but even if he isn’t a title winner, he may be hard to ignore if he were to have another 30+ goal campaign.

He might even be on pace to match his own record of most Premier League goals in a season – 36, which he set in his debut season of 2022/23. He would need to average a goal a game from here on out.

Choose Erling Haaland to win the PFA Player of the Year award at 7/4 with BetMGM

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Key dates in the 2025/26 Premier League season

The big one that Arsenal, Man City, and all Premier League fans will be circling on their calendars will be the at the Etihad in April – Man City hosting Arsenal on the 18th, but be prepared for that one to change depending on Sky’s scheduling.

Before then, Guardiola’s side head to Anfield on 7th February. The Spaniard has only won once there in ten visits as City boss.

Arsenal fans will likely agree that the end of February and start of March will represent one of their biggest hurdles. On 22nd February, they make the short journey to White Hart Lane for the return leg of the North London derby. The following week, on 1st March, they welcome Chelsea to the Emirates.

Aston Villa will be tested at a similar time – it’ll be their turn to host Chelsea on 4th March, before they go to Old Trafford on 14th March, where their Champions League hopes were dashed on the final day of last season – with some questionable decisions going against them.

Should the race run through to May, here’s the final three for the current top three:

Arsenal	Man City	Aston Villa
West Ham (A)	Brentford (H)	Burnley (A)
Burnley (H)	Bournemouth (A)	Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (A)	Aston Villa (H)	Man City (A)

How the 2024/25 Premier League title was won, and lost

Between the start of November and the end of the season, Liverpool occupied first place in the Premier League. With Mohamed Salah in the form of his life, they hit the ground running under Arne Slot. They won 11 of their first 13 fixtures, including a crucial 2-0 victory over Manchester City in December.

That was City’s fourth defeat on the bounce, a period which in effect marked their elimination from the title picture. Between early November and Boxing Day, Pep Guardiola’s previously imperious team won just one out of nine top-flight matches. They ended the season strongly, but it was a case of too little, too late in terms of the title.

Arsenal drew 2-2 with Liverpool at home and away, so it was not the results in head-to-head meetings between the top two that cost Mikel Arteta’s men. Instead, Arsenal were made to rue dropped points against the likes of Bournemouth, Fulham, Everton, West Ham and Brighton – teams they were expected to beat.

By the time of the March international break, Arsenal were 15 points adrift of Liverpool in top spot. Although they had a game in hand on Slot’s men, the race was essentially done and dusted already with two months to spare.

FAQ about the 2025/26 Premier League season

1. Which Premier League teams will be competing in Europe this season?

There are no fewer than nine Premier League teams competing in Europe this season. Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Tottenham will be gunning for glory in the Champions League.

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest are flying the flag for England in the Europa League, with Crystal Palace involved in the Conference League after losing their appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Palace won the FA Cup last season, and therefore qualified for the Europa League, but were denied entry due to owner John Textor also having a stake in French club Lyon.

2. Who is likely to be involved in the battle for the top four spots this season?

As well as Premier League winner odds 2025/26, you will also find markets on a top-four finish. Arsenal and Manchester City are nailed on to be in there, while Liverpool have also been top four mainstays since the early years of the Jürgen Klopp era. Despite a terrible run of form in the autumn, they’re well-placed to make it again.

Chelsea finished fourth last term and would’ve aimed to replicate that at the very least. That’ll likely be Liam Rosenior’s objective in his first half-season in charge. Aston Villa are currently third and should have the staying power for a Champions League berth, even if they’re unable to keep up a title tilt. Manchester United are looking stronger after a dismal campaign last time out.

3. Which players are expected to be in the running for Premier League top scorer this season?

Erling Haaland is a goalscoring machine and barring a long-term injury, will take his Golden Boot trophy back from Mo Salah, won won it last season with 29 goals.

The Norwegian has bagged 20 as of mid-January – four more than anyone else. Few would’ve expected Brentford’s Igor Thiago to be second in the charts at this stage, with the likes of Salah and Alexander Isak – who swapped Newcastle for Liverpool in the summer – to be way out of the running. The Swedish striker could also miss much of the remainder of the season with a fractured fibula.

4. Which teams may be in danger of relegation from the Premier League this season?

In each of the last two seasons, the three promoted clubs have gone straight back down to the Championship. There will be no repeat this time, however, with Sunderland flying in the top half, and Leeds also look as though they’ll be fine after putting together an impressive seven-game unbeaten run throughout December and January.

It is all but guaranteed that Wolves’ eight-year stay in the top flight will be coming to an end this season, after a dismal start has left them marooned at the foot of the table. They remained winless until 3rd January and still need four more points to ensure they beat Derby County’s lowest ever Premier League tally.

Currently, Burnley and West Ham look as though they’ll be joining them in the Championship next season, although Nottingham Forest are still very much in the dogfight.

About the author

Greg Lea

Greg Lea is a freelance football writer from London. He predominantly covers the Premier League and has had work published by the Guardian, FourFourTwo, ESPN and others.

Follow Greg on X: @GregLeaFootball

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