Polyana Viana vs. Alice Ardelean prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 117

UFC Vegas 117: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa continues on the prelims with a fight between Polyana Viana and Alice Ardelean in the strawweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Viana-Ardelean prediction and pick.

Polyana Viana enters (13-8) has hit a serious wall of late, being submitted via rear-naked choke by Jaqueline Amorim in April 2025, extending her skid to three straight losses after a TKO defeat to Gillian Robertson and a submission loss to Iasmin Lucindo. Despite her elite jiu-jitsu pedigree and 12 first-round finishes, the Iron Lady desperately needs a turnaround as she comes into her fight this weekend against Alice Ardelean.

Alice Ardelean (11-7) enters UFC Vegas 117 riding a two-fight winning streak, recently gutting out a unanimous decision win over Rayanne dos Santos in May 2025, then followed it up with another unanimous decision victory over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz in November 2025, showing real consistency on the feet with a high-volume striking output. Now brimming with confidence, Ardelean looks to make it three straight as she comes into her fight this weekend against Polyana Viana.

UFC Vegas 117 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 117 Odds: Polyana Viana-Alice Ardelean Odds

Polyana Viana: +170

Alice Ardelean: -205

Over 2.5 rounds: -238

Under 2.5 rounds: +180

Why Polyana Viana Will Win

Polyana “The Iron Lady” Viana may be on a three-fight losing streak, but her elite jiu-jitsu pedigree makes her one of the most dangerous submission artists in the entire strawweight division. With 12 first-round finishes on her resume, one mistake from Ardelean on the ground could end this fight in an instant.

Ardelean is a striker-first fighter who thrives when the fight stays standing, averaging 7.35 significant strikes per minute — but that aggressive, forward-pressing style could walk her directly into Viana’s world-class grappling. The Iron Lady has the takedown ability and clinch work to drag this fight to the mat and make Ardelean deeply uncomfortable.

Viana’s experience edge is also significant — she has been in the UFC since 2018 and has faced elite-level competition throughout her career, giving her a composure and fight IQ that a fighter like Ardelean simply hasn’t been tested against yet. When the bright lights get brightest, that veteran savvy could prove to be the deciding factor.

Additionally, Ardelean’s two recent wins came against lower-ranked opposition, and stepping up in experience against Viana represents a clear jump in competition level. A motivated, back-against-the-wall Iron Lady with submission threats around every corner is a nightmare matchup for a striker coming into her prime as she faces Polyana Viana this Saturday.

Why Alice Ardelean Will Win

Alice Ardelean enters UFC Vegas 117 on a two-fight winning streak and with serious momentum on her side, while Viana is staggering into this bout on three straight losses. Momentum and confidence are intangible factors that absolutely matter inside the Octagon, and Ardelean has both in abundance right now.

Ardelean’s striking volume is simply elite — her 7.35 significant strikes per minute is among the highest in the strawweight division, and a fighter like Viana who has been finished multiple times recently may struggle to survive that kind of relentless pressure. Keeping the fight standing and peppering Viana with combinations early could shake her confidence and take away any offensive grappling opportunities before they develop.

Viana’s recent losses have exposed real vulnerability — she was submitted and stopped in back-to-back-to-back fights, raising serious questions about whether her durability and defensive grappling can hold up at this level anymore. A fighter who has been finished three consecutive times carries significant mental scars that Ardelean’s aggressive style will test immediately.

Ardelean’s UFC record of 2-2 also undersells her overall development as a complete fighter, with her last two performances showing clear improvements in ring generalship and output. If she can neutralize the takedown threat and keep this fight competitive on the feet, the Romanian strawweight has all the tools to put on a dominant performance and hand Viana her fourth consecutive defeat this Saturday.

Final Polyana Viana-Alice Ardelean Prediction & Pick

This strawweight matchup is a classic striker vs. grappler clash, and the outcome will largely depend on where the fight takes place. Ardelean’s elite striking volume gives her a clear path to victory on the feet, while Viana’s submission arsenal makes every ground exchange a potential fight-ending moment.

Expect Ardelean to come out fast and look to establish her striking early, using her high output to keep Viana pinned against the cage and limit her takedown attempts. Viana will be patient, hunting for that single takedown or clinch opportunity that could flip the entire fight on its head.

Ultimately, Ardelean’s relentless striking pace proves too much for a Viana squad still searching for answers after three straight defeats.

Final Polyana Viana-Alice Ardelean Prediction & Pick: Alice Ardelean (-205), Over 2.5 Runds (-238)

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