Mexico vs. USA prediction, odds, pick for 2026 World Baseball Classic

Team USA is looking for a third win in Pool B play as they face Mexico on Monday night. It is now time to continue our World Baseball Classic odds series with a Mexico-USA prediction and pick.

Team USA has been dominant so far in the games. They opened up with a 15-5 victory over Brazil in the tournament. It did not take them long to score in that game, as Aaron Judge hit a two-run home run in the top of the first inning. Still, Brazil kept it close, being down by just three heading into the ninth inning. Team USA scored seven runs in the ninth on the way to a ten-run victory.  On Saturday, they face Great Britain. Nate Eaton went deep off of Tarik Skubal to give the Brits a 1-0 lead. It would be the fifth inning before Team USA got on the board. They first scored on a wild pitch, and then Kyle Schwarber hit a monster home run to make it 3-1. They would go on to win 9-1.

Meanwhile, Mexico is 2-0 so far at the World Baseball Classic. They faced off with Great Britain on Friday. Nacho Alvarez opened up the scoring with a home run in the second inning, but Great Britain tied the game in the sixth. Jonathan Aranda gave Mexico the lead on a three-run home run in the eighth, and then Mexico added another four runs in the ninth, winning the game 8-2.  They then dominated Brazil on Sunday night. After a four-run first inning and then six run fourth inning, Mexico was able to mercy rule Brazil, winning 16-0 in six innings.

Mexico has been the better side between the two when they have faced each other in recent WBCs. Team USA won the first time they met at the WBC in 2006. Still, Mexico won in 2006, 2013, and 2023. The 2023 game was an 11-5 victory for Mexico.

World Baseball Classic Odds provided by DraftKings. 

Mexico vs. USA Odds

Mexico: +3.5 (-105)

USA: -3.5 (-115)

Over: 11 (-125)

Under: 11 (+100)

Mexico vs. USA Key Injuries

Mexico-  Luis Urias has withdrawn from the game due to an injury. Meanwhile, Taj Bradley, Ramon Urias, and Jose Urquidy had all been previously ruled out.

USA-  Corbin Carroll was ruled out before the games, while Nolan McLean and Alex Bregman are both dealing with injuries.

Keys to Mexico vs. USA Matchup

With Taijuan Walker starting against Brazil and Javier Assad already starting against Great Britain, it will be Marry Barreda on the mound for Team Mexico. Barreda does not have a ton of experience against MLB pitching. He last pitched in the majors in 2021 with the Baltimore Orioles. That season, he pitched in three games, giving up four runs in 2.2 innings of work. Since then, he has primarily played in Mexico. He has struggled with the long ball against a higher level of competition, and that is not something that can be done against this Team USA lineup.

Meanwhile, Team USA has plenty of bats who could punish the pitching of Mexico. It starts with Judge and Schwarber. Both of them have already hit well and have a home run already in the WBC. Meanwhile, Schwarber and second baseman Gunnar Henderson have both been solid at getting on base. They both have four hits already. Overall, the United States squad has been great at both hitting for power and getting on base. In two games, the team is hitting .314 with a .490 OBP. That gives them the fourth-best OPS in the tournament so far.

Team USA is also sending a dominant arm to the mound against Mexico. It is expected to be Paul Skenes on the mound for the Americans. In his two years with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he has made 55 starts, going 21-13 with a 1.96 ERA and a .948 WHIP. He rarely gives up many runs, so Team USA will have a solid chance to get up early in the game.

Mexico did not hit great in their first game of the tournament. They hit just 182 while having a .308 OBP. Nacho Alvarez was the star in the first game for Mexico, going one of three with a home run and a walk. Meanwhile, Jontathan Aranda was two of five with a home run and three RBIs. The bats woke up in their second game of the WBC. Once again, it was the long ball. They hit four home runs in just six innings against Brazil, but also were able to get on base at a much better rate. Mexico needed the longball to win the first game of the tournament, and will need that again in this game.

Mexico vs. USA Prediction and Pick

Facing Paul Skenes is difficult for any team, but with the pitch count limits, Skenes knows he is not going deep into the game and can push it all early. That is going to make it nearly impossible for Mexico to score early on. The best chance Mexico has is against the bullpen for Team USA. Still, Team USA has an amazing group of arms that are going to be difficult to get many runs against. Further, the Americans can both hit for average and power, which is going to get them off to a hot start. Mexico may be able to have a few solid innings of hitting, but it is not going to be enough to get the win in this one. Team USA is going to score early and often in this one.

Final Mexico vs. USA Prediction and Pick:  USA -3.5 (-115) and Over 11 (-125) 

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