Mavs vs. Celtics prediction, odds, pick – 3/6/2026

We continue our predictions and picks for the upcoming Friday slate of NBA action, turning attention towards the conclusion of this cross-conference series. The Dallas Mavericks (21-41) take on the Boston Celtics (41-21) with Boston hoping to sweep. Check our NBA odds series for the Mavs-Celtics prediction and pick.

The Dallas Mavericks occupy the 12-spot in the Western Conference, most recently falling to the Orlando Magic 114-115. They’ve now dropped five-straight and have just two wins over their last 17 games, heading into this contest the double-digit underdogs and unlikely to break their cold streak.

The Boston Celtics are second in the East and 4.5 games back of the Detroit Pistons, losing to the Charlotte Hornets 118-89 their last time out. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak, but all is well as they could see the return of their franchise cornerstone Jayson Tatum from injury.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Mavs vs. Celtics Odds

Dallas Mavericks: +15.5 (-110)

Boston Celtics: -15.5 (-110)

Over: 225.5 (-110)

Under: 225.5 (-110)

Mavs vs. Celtics Key Injuries 

Dallas: NOT YET SUBMITTED (update to come)

Boston: Jayson Tatum (achilles – Questionable) / Jordan Walsh (illness – Questionable)

Mavs vs. Celtics Betting Trends

• The Boston Celtics are 20-10 at home. The Dallas Mavericks are 7-20 on the road.
• The Celtics have gone 33-13 as betting favorites. The Mavericks are 11-31 as the underdogs.
• The Celtics are 36-26 ATS overall, 15-15 ATS at home. The Mavericks are 28-34 ATS overall, 11-18 ATS on the road.
• The Celtics are 8-2 outright, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against the Mavs.
• The Mavericks have gone 0-5 in their last five games.
• The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Mavericks’ last five games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of Boston’s last seven games.

Keys to Mavs vs. Celtics Matchup

The Boston Celtics took the first meeting between these two teams 110-100 just over a month ago, widely dominating this occasional series over the last few seasons. Jaylen Brown topped his 28.9 PPG season average with 33 that night, but Mavs’ rookie Cooper Flagg was the star of the show, leading all scorers with 36. Flagg added nine rebounds, six assists, and two blocks while getting to the line for 11 attempts, a true all-around showing from the No. 1 overall pick.

Flagg managed to return from a month-long injury stint and return in the Mavs’ last game, so expect him to make an effort in returning to action in this one as well. The biggest storyline, however, will be the reported potential return of Jayson Tatum following his achilles injury during the NBA Playoffs last season. The return would mark a miraculous recovery as many initially expected Tatum to miss the entire 2025-26 season.

Once Tatum returns, we can expect a minutes restriction for his first appearances given the Celtics’ standing atop the Eastern Conference. While they want to ensure the highest seed possible, it wouldn’t hurt to slowly bring back Tatum and continue active recovery in preparation for the playoffs. Jaylen Brown has clearly shown an ability to lead this team in Tatum’s absence, so don’t expect this offense to suddenly change now that Tatum is available to return.

It will take a herculean effort from the Mavericks to win this game as the Celtics’ crowd will be in a frenzy potentially seeing Jayson Tatum return. While the Celtics have kept an even bar covering the spread at home, the energy behind their offense and effort on defense should be enough to earn them the win here.

Mavs vs. Celtics Prediction and Pick

As the Mavericks’ continue to work around a lengthy injury report, the Boston Celtics are eyeing the return of Jayson Tatum much sooner than anyone had anticipated. While he may not make a massive impact in his return thanks to a likely minutes restriction, the palpable energy from the crowd will be enough to carry the Celtics in this one.

Still, we could see a big game out of Cooper Flagg as he’s had one of his better outings of the season against Boston, but his efforts likely won’t be enough unless players like Naji Marshall can seriously step up and provide a spark off the bench.

Ultimately, while this may be a lofty spread to cover, I expect the Celtics pull away in garbage time and just barely cover the spread. While the Mavericks may come up with their scoring runs, expect Boston to lead throughout the vast majority of this game as fans anxiously await the return of Tatum.

Final Mavs-Celtics Prediction & Pick: Boston Celtics -15.5 (-110); OVER 225.5 (-110)

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