Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 120

The time is finally here for the UFC Vegas 120 Main Event as we bring you a prediction and pick for this headlining bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. Ranked contenders will meet as Poland’s No. 8-ranked Mateusz Gamrot will welcome rising prospect N0. 12 Quillan Salkilld of Australia. Check our UFC Vegas 120 odds series for the Gamrot-Salkilld prediction and pick.

Mateusz Gamrot (26-4) comes into this Main Event with a 9-4 UFC record since 2020. Alternating wins and losses over his last five fights, he most recently took out Esteban Ribovics via arm triangle during his last outing. He’s grown accustomed to silencing hyped prospects, looking to do so once again as the surprising underdog. Gamrot stands 5-foot-10 with a 70.5-inch reach.

Quillan Salkilld (12-1) is a perfect 5-0 inside the UFC since debuting in 2025 following a successful audition on Dana White’s Contender Series. He beat Beneil Dariush in the first round during his last outing, earning his fourth performance bonus and fourth total finish inside the UFC. He’ll look to continue his meteoric rise as the betting favorite standing six feet tall with a 75-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 120 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 120 Odds: Mateusz Gamrot-Quillan Salkilld Odds

Mateusz Gamrot: +120

Quillan Salkilld: -142

Over 3.5 rounds: -135

Under 3.5 rounds: +105

Why Mateusz Gamrot Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Esteban Ribovics – SUB (arm triangle, R2)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 6 SUB

Mateusz Gamrot was tasked with another rising contender in Esteban Ribovics during his last fight, quickly making the discrepancy felt as he quickly notched the submission finish in the second round. This will be Gamrot’s fourth main event and he’s 2-1 in this type of spot with notable wins over Arman Tsarukyan and Rafael Fiziev. Salkilld shouldn’t pose any difficult looks Gamrot hasn’t already dealt with in the past.

Many fans may not guess Gamrot is 35 years old by the tremendous shape he’s in and high-intensity motors he fights behind. He’s very fundamental on the feet and doesn’t do too much in terms of throwing anything unorthodox. His striking is clear-cut and effective when he’s able to land, usually opening the door for him to be dominant with his grappling.

Gamrot may not want to test the length and speed of Salkilld on the feet too much, but he should have a clear path to victory if he’s able to force his opponent to the ground. Salkilld’s 80% takedown defense has proven to be impressive, but Gamrot has managed to take down every single opponent he’s every stepped into the cage with.

Why Quillan Salkilld Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Beneil Dariush – KO (strikes, R1)
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Salkilld made quick work of Beneil Dariush on the feet, but it didn’t come without slight adversity as Dariush was able to catch Salkilld clean first. If Salkilld wasn’t just 26 years old and full of all the energy in the world, Dariush could have handed him his first loss in what was almost a very different fight. Still, Salkilld was able to push through and ultimately got it done on the feet with his own striking.

This time around, Salkilld will have to be much more mindful of his takedown defense as Gamrot has been known to chase them relentlessly. If he’s able to stuff the first few, it should discourage Gamrot later in the fight, allowing Salkilld to shine on the feet where he’s truly able to make a difference. Given his reach advantage, expect Salkilld to make great use of his kicks up the middle in creating space and distance in the striking.

To be successful here, Salkilld will have to allow Gamrot to make the first move and counter effectively without expending himself too much. He’s gone the distance just once and this will be his first five-round environment, so expect Salkilld’s cardio to truly be tested throughout this fight.

Final Mateusz Gamrot-Quillan Salkilld Prediction & Pick

While Quillan Salkilld is on a quick rise through the Lightweight Division, this will easily be the toughest test of his career as he faces a seasoned vet like Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot owns wins over some of the best fighters on the planet and it’s actually surprising to see him the betting underdog all his experience considered.

I expect this to be a slightly uneventful fight if Gamrot is able to have his way. He’s known for smothering pressure on the ground and can seriously neutralize Salkilld’s offense if he’s able to land in top position, so expect Gamrot to spam the takedowns while spending a great deal of time clinching along the fence.

This should be the exact recipe Gamrot needs to beat Salkilld and the five-round environment only plays into his favor. Expect to see a staunch difference in cardio if this fight drags into the later rounds. Still, we have to like Mateusz Gamrot here as the live underdog.

Final Mateusz Gamrot-Quillan Salkilld Prediction & Pick: Mateusz Gamrot (+120); OVER 3.5 Rounds (-135)

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