Billy Quarantillo vs. Diego Ferreira prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 120

UFC Vegas 120: Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld continues on the main card with a fight between Billy Quarantillo and Diego Ferreira in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 120 odds series for our Quarantillo-Ferreira prediction and pick.

Billy Quarantillo (18-7) enters riding a two-fight losing skid, most recently getting knocked out by Cub Swanson in the third round in December 2024 after also being submitted via rear-naked choke by Youssef Zalal in March 2024. Quarantillo now moves up to lightweight looking to turn the tide as he comes into his fight this weekend against Diego Ferreira.

Diego Ferreira (19-7) enters on a two-fight skid, most recently getting knocked out by Alexander Hernandez in the second round back in September 2025 after also dropping a unanimous decision to Grant Dawson at UFC 311 in January 2025. Ferreira looks to snap that slide as he comes into his fight this weekend against Billy Quarantillo.

UFC Vegas 120 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 120 Odds: Billy Quarantillo-Diego Ferreira Odds

Billy Quarantillo: +145

Diego Ferreira: -175

Over 2.5 rounds: +150

Under 2.5 rounds: -195

Why Billy Quarantillo Will Win

Billy Quarantillo brings more recent finishing exposure to adjust from, and that could actually work in his favor against Ferreira. Despite his own two-fight skid, Quarantillo has been aggressive and durable throughout his UFC tenure, going the distance and pushing pace against high-level featherweight competition before moving up to lightweight.

Diego Ferreira, meanwhile, is also mired in a two-fight losing streak, having been knocked out by Alexander Hernandez in September 2025 after dropping a decision to Grant Dawson at UFC 311. Getting finished by strikes at this stage of his career raises legitimate durability concerns against a volume-heavy striker like Quarantillo.

Quarantillo’s grappling background as a BJJ black belt also gives him a path to control where the fight takes place, especially if Ferreira’s chin proves as susceptible as it did against Hernandez. His well-rounded skill set gives him multiple avenues to win rounds even if the striking exchanges are competitive.

Age and recent output matter too, since Ferreira has shown signs of decline in his last two showings. Quarantillo’s higher volume and improved durability at 155 pounds should be enough to snap his own skid and hand Ferreira a third straight loss this weekend.

Why Diego Ferreira Will Win

Diego Ferreira brings significantly more experience at lightweight, a weight class where Quarantillo is still finding his footing after moving up from featherweight. Ferreira has faced elite competition throughout his career, including bouts against top-tier names, giving him a much deeper well of experience to draw from in a five-round main-event atmosphere.

Billy Quarantillo, meanwhile, is coming off his own two-fight skid, having been finished by both knockout and submission in his last two outings. Getting stopped in consecutive fights at 145 pounds raises real questions about how he’ll hold up against a bigger, more powerful lightweight like Ferreira.

Ferreira’s own finishing rate sits at a strong 63%, and his power on the feet combined with a background in wrestling gives him multiple ways to end the fight early. If Quarantillo’s chin proves as much of an issue at 155 as it did in his recent finishes, Ferreira could capitalize quickly.

Bouncing back from a two-fight skid of his own, Ferreira enters with added urgency to prove he still belongs among the division’s competitive names. That desperation, paired with his experience and power advantage, should be enough for Ferreira to get back in the win column against Quarantillo this weekend.

Final Billy Quarantillo-Diego Ferreira Prediction & Pick

This lightweight clash pits two veterans both looking to snap two-fight losing skids in a pivotal co-main event. Quarantillo (18-7) moves up from featherweight after back-to-back finishes, while Ferreira (19-7) enters off his own knockout loss to Alexander Hernandez and decision defeat to Grant Dawson.

The biggest question is whether Quarantillo’s chin, exposed in two straight finishes, can hold up against a bigger, more powerful lightweight in Ferreira. Ferreira’s 63 percent finish rate and wrestling background give him a clear path to end things early if he can find his shots.

Quarantillo’s volume and grappling pedigree as a BJJ black belt could keep things competitive if he avoids early exchanges and works from distance or the clinch. Still, size and power advantages at the new weight class loom large for Quarantillo in his first true test at 155.

Expect a gritty, competitive fight, with Ferreira’s power and experience ultimately breaking through for a second-round TKO win.

Final Billy Quarantillo-Diego Ferreira Prediction & Pick: Diego Ferreira (-175); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-195)

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