Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan prediction, odds, pick for UFC Baku

UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the prelims with a fight between Jean Matsumoto and Bekzat Almakhan in the bantamweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Matsumoto-Almakhan prediction and pick.

Jean Matsumoto (17-2) has shown he can grind through elite bantamweight competition. He earned a hard-fought split decision over Miles Johns in August 2025, then dropped a narrow split-decision loss to Farid Basharat in February 2026, a fight that tightened his ledger but did little to dull his confidence heading into UFC Baku as he comes into his fight this weekend against Bekzat Almakhan.

Bekzat Almakhan (12-3) has been finishing people at a violent pace. The Kazakhstani bantamweight blasted Brad Katona with a first-round KO at just 1:04 at UFC 315 in May 2025, then dropped a unanimous decision to Aleksandre Topuria in November 2025, his second career loss by decision. He brings big knockout power and something to prove as he comes into his fight this weekend against Jean Matsumoto.

UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Baku Odds: Jean Matsumoto-Bekzat Almakhan Odds

Jean Matsumoto: -155

Bekzat Almakhan: +130

Over 2.5 rounds: -220

Under 2.5 rounds: +170

Why Jean Matsumoto Will Win

Jean Matsumoto’s path to victory runs directly through his grappling. With six submission wins on his resume, including guillotines, an anaconda, and an arm triangle, he carries one of the most diverse submission arsenals in the UFC bantamweight division.

Bekzat Almakhan is a finisher on the feet, but his losses tell a revealing story. All three defeats have come via decision or submission, meaning opponents who can weather his early aggression and drag the fight to the mat have found a blueprint.

Matsumoto averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and posts a 48% takedown accuracy, numbers that suggest he doesn’t just shoot, he lands. If he can neutralize Almakhan’s KO power in the early rounds and secure even one takedown, the fight shifts decisively in his favor.

Almakhan is 1-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming in extended fights where his output faded and opponents controlled the pace. Matsumoto’s Muay Thai base gives him the striking credibility to stay competitive on the feet while setting up his bread-and-butter grappling.

At 17-2, Matsumoto has been battle-tested against elite competition. His experience edge, combined with a well-rounded game that Almakhan hasn’t faced in the Octagon, makes him the smart pick to get his hand raised on Sunday.

Why Bekzat Almakhan Will Win

Bekzat Almakhan is one of the most dangerous one-punch finishers in the entire bantamweight division. Ten of his 12 career wins have come by knockout, a finishing rate that demands respect from anyone stepping into the Octagon with him.

That KO power was on full display at UFC 315 when he detonated a right uppercut on Brad Katona just 64 seconds into round one. Almakhan didn’t need to be flashy, one clean shot, and the fight was over.

Jean Matsumoto, for all his grappling credentials, has struggled in split decisions lately, going 1-2 in his last three fights with razor-thin margins. That inconsistency suggests he can be outworked and out-pressured, which is exactly what Almakhan’s forward-moving, explosive style is designed to exploit.

Matsumoto’s chin has been tested at the highest level, and absorbing 6.57 significant strikes per minute means he gets hit, a lot. Against a man with Almakhan’s knockout percentage, eating volume is a recipe for getting put to sleep early.

Almakhan’s karate base gives him unpredictable angles, and his black belt pedigree translates to crisp, deceptive setups. If Matsumoto gets careless even once trying to close the distance for a takedown, Almakhan has the power to end the night in spectacular fashion.

Final Jean Matsumoto-Bekzat Almakhan Prediction & Pick

This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and the outcome likely hinges on one critical variable, whether Matsumoto can close the distance without eating a fight-ending uppercut in the process.

Almakhan’s explosiveness in the early rounds is his greatest weapon, and if he can keep Matsumoto at range and land clean, this fight could end before it truly gets started. However, Matsumoto has faced elite competition at 17-2 and has shown the composure to weather early pressure and grind fights into uncomfortable territory.

Once Matsumoto gets his hands locked around Almakhan’s waist, the dynamic shifts entirely. His six submission wins prove he doesn’t just drag fights to the mat he finishes them there.

Almakhan’s cardio and chin have both been questioned in longer fights, and Matsumoto is the type to expose exactly that. Expect a gritty, competitive bantamweight bout that goes to the later rounds.

Final Jean Matsumoto-Bekzat Almakhan Prediction & Pick: Jean Matsumoto (-155), Over 2.5 rounds (-220)

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