Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje UFC White House predictions including Paddy Pimblett, Arman Tsarukyan and Hall of Famer

Jun 4, 2026 - 15:30
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje UFC White House predictions including Paddy Pimblett, Arman Tsarukyan and Hall of Famer

Ilia Topuria is an overwhelming favourite to defeat Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC White House.

The lightweight stars clash on the South Lawn of the White House on June 14 to decide the next undisputed champion of the division in a celebration of America’s 250th year of independence.

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office alongside UFC Freedom 250 fighters Ilia Topuria, Alex Pereira, Justin Gaethje, and Ciryl Gane at the White House on May 06, 2026 in Washington, DC
Whoever gets their hand raised in the headliner of the White House card, as well as the winner of the co-main event between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane, will get a special edition US championship belt
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Gaethje, one of eight Americans on the White House show, is currently a 5/1 (+500) underdog on talkSPORT Bet — the biggest odds on the entire card — but several are still backing him to get the win.

talkSPORT.com has identified the predictions of the UFC‘s biggest stars to see who they think will get their hand raised in the one-of-a-kind spectacle less than two weeks away.

Who is backing Justin Gaethje?

Paddy Pimblett – UFC lightweight contender

“That’s a scrap,” Pimblett, the last man to fight Gaethje in the UFC, explained on his YouTube channel.

“They’re going to come out, and they’re going to try and take each other’s head off.

“But everyone’s already counting Gaethje out, and we’ve learned you can’t do that.

“I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that Gaethje might pull off an upset here and surprise everyone.”

Ben Askren – Former UFC welterweight

Speaking on Funky & The Champ with Daniel Cormier, Askren, who is returning to competition next month after a double lung transplant, said: “That’s almost one you’d be willing to throw a few bucks on because you get such good odds on Justin.

“Maybe [Gaethje] can’t beat him, but he can knock him out. Ilia’s good, but Justin hits hard, and he’s very accurate.”

King Green – UFC lightweight

“I’m going with Gaethje,” Green told members of the media after his first-round submission of Jeremy Stephens at UFC 328.

“It’s hard to go against Topuria, but Gaethje’s been taking care of me for years, and I’m always going to be with my boys. It’s USA all day.”

Ilia Topuria of Spain strikes Charles Oliveira of Brazil in the UFC lightweight championship bout during the UFC 317 event at T-Mobile Arena on June 28, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Topuria knocked out Charles Oliveira last June to become the UFC lightweight champion and win his second promotional title
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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 24: (R-L) Justin Gaethje trades strikes with Paddy Pimblett of England in the UFC lightweight interim championship bout during the UFC 324 event at T-Mobile Arena on January 24, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Gaethje went to war with Pimblett, dropping the Liverpudlian twice en route to a convincing unanimous decision victory and subsequently being crowned the interim lightweight king
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Chris Duncan – UFC lightweight

“A lot of people think Ilia’s going to steamroll through him with the power he possesses,” Duncan said.

“But any fighter who understands fighting understands that the crisp striker can be very difficult to hit.

Justin Gaethje‘s awkward style could cause definite threats, and Justin Gaethje is one of my favourite active fighters in the UFC.”

Who is backing Ilia Topuria?

Arman Tsarukyan – UFC lightweight contender

“It’s a waste of time, [Gaethje] cannot wrestle,” Tsarukyan, who felt hard done by not getting the title shot against Topuria instead of Gaethje, said on The Ariel Helwani Show.

“If he could wrestle, yeah. But on the boxing, he drops his hands, he jabs, and he jumps with his hand to throw his uppercut, and in that moment, Ilia will overhook him and knock him out right away.

“[Gaethje] has no chin, [Pimblett] touched him so easily, and his legs were shaking.”

Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje pose on the South Lawn in front of the White House on May 06, 2026 in Washington, DC
Top-ranked UFC lightweight Pimblett, who lost to Gaethje in his last fight, believes the American can cause an upset at the White House
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Jorge Masvidal – Former UFC welterweight title challenger

Speaking on his Death Row MMA show, Masvidal said: “This fight should’ve only been made if they want to see a dead body.

“I don’t think [Gaethje] has many chances, but it is fighting, so I could be wrong.

“But I just feel in this particular fight, the odds are very against Gaethje.

“I think this is a very good fight for Ilia to showcase his dominance in the division and his pound-for-pound status.”

Dan Hooker – UFC lightweight

Appearing on Submission Radio, Hooker admitted that members of the media gave him all he needed to know.

“There were 100 people in the media room, and they’re asking me about Ilia-Gaethje,” Hooker explained.

“I said to them, the whole media room, ‘Does anyone in this room think that Justin Gaethje is gonna win that fight?’

“Bro, of 100 UFC media people, not a single person put their hand up.”

Merab Dvalishvili – Former UFC bantamweight champion

“I don’t know how Justin Gaethje should fight Topuria,” Dvalishvili explained on his YouTube channel.

“I would say just wrestle against Ilia, but Justin isn’t a wrestler. Justin is going to duck his head and punch like he does.

“But Ilia will study him and punch right there. I think this fight is perfect for Ilia because Justin just boxes and throws calf kicks.

“Ilia does the same thing, and if he touches him in the exchanges, he knocks him out.”

Demetrious Johnson – Former UFC flyweight champion and UFC Hall of Famer

“If I had to make a pick, I’d have Ilia Topuria winning by knockout because that’s what he does,” ‘Mighty Mouse’ said on the Jaxxon Podcast.

“Ilia Topuria is going to get himself in a position where he can knock out Justin Gaethje.”

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