Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins prediction, odds, pick for MVP MMA 1

MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano continues on Netflix as we’re back with a prediction and pick for this next Heavyweight bout. Former UFC Champion Francis Ngannou will take on Brazil’s Philipe Lins as both fighters make their MVP debuts. Check our MMA odds series for the Ngannou-Lins prediction and pick.

Francis Ngannou (18-3) will make his MMA return after most recently taking out Renan Ferreira during his PFL debut in 2024. He went 0-2 during his boxing stint against Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua, but returns to the MMA stage widely considered the No. 1 Heavyweight fighter on the planet after unifying his UFC belt against Ciryl Gane. He looks to add another win and a huge payday to his resume. Ngannou stands 6-foot-4 with an 83-inch reach.

Philipe Lins (18-5) will make his first appearance outside the UFC since joining the roster in 2020. Despite posting a solid 4-2 record and winning his last four fights with the promotion, the UFC chose not to renew his contract due to inconsistencies and fight cancellations. He’ll look for the biggest upset of his career if he can take out the reigning ‘baddest man on the planet.’ Lins stands 6-foot-2 with a 78-inch reach.

MVP MMA 1 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

MVP MMA 1 Odds: Francis Ngannou-Philipe Lins Odds

Francis Ngannou: -1350

Philipe Lins: +800

Over 1.5 rounds: +165

Under 1.5 rounds: -215

Why Francis Ngannou Will Win

Francis Ngannou made quick work of Renan Ferreira during his PFL debut to win the Heavyweight belt in October 2024. Ngannou quickly closed the distance and engaged with Ferreira without much resistance, putting together a classic KO finish by his standards just under four minutes into the first round. He technically went out on top when departing from the UFC and hasn’t been bested in the MMA cage since, so expect Ngannou to continue being at the height of his powers up to this point.

Say what you want about the Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua matchups, but it’s still impressive that Ngannou pushed Fury to a 10-round split decision and even had the courage to step in there against Joshua. It shows a willingness to continue evolving his boxing craft, but his true dominance shows in the MMA world where he’s able to overwhelm opponents with his physical power and dominance.

Still, Philipe Lins left the UFC on a four-fight winning streak and while his wins weren’t all that exciting or “sexy” in the eyes of fans, he’s figured out ways to beat better opponents and force his style of fight. Nevertheless, I don’t expect Ngannou to be phased by this in the slightest, so expect another terrifying performance out of him come Saturday.

Why Philipe Lins Will Win

Philipe Lins drew the short end of the stick in terms of his contract negotiations with the UFC, doing all he could to pad his record and make a case for re-signing. However, three of those wins came by decision and the UFC is clearly in the market for exciting heavyweights that push the pace and search for knockouts. Despite all this, Lins will still see the biggest payday of his career in deriving from the UFC and having the courage to take this fight against Francis Ngannou.

Lins is certainly skilled on the feet and has a great feel for boxing rhythm as he does a great job weaving inside the pocket. He could have a solid matchup against Ngannou with his fast hand speed, but he’ll need to be perfect defensively as it’s no secret Ngannou will shut the lights out with just one punch. Lins will have to be perfect on his counter-striking as well to avoid any big whiffs where Ngannou can capitalize on him.

It’s worth noting Philipe Lins has four career wins by submission and is no slouch on the ground. He’s never been submitted and does a great job of reversing positions if he’s in a bad spot, so don’t be surprised if Lins can show some life on the ground if the fight calls for it.

Final Francis Ngannou-Philipe Lins Prediction & Pick

While this should be an interesting matchup for as long as it lasts, this fight is really about the return of Francis Ngannou to a huge stage, intent on showing what he can still do as the technical reigning heavyweight champ of the world. He seems to be in top physical shape and while Lins is riding a four-fight winning streak into this fight, he hasn’t seen anyone near the level of Ngannou and his knockout power.

Without thinking about it too much, Francis Ngannou should be able to notch a quick knockout in this fight, likely in the first round

Final Francis Ngannou-Philipe Lins Prediction & Pick: Francis Ngannou (-1350); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-215)

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