Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves prediction, odds, pick for UFC Sacramento

UFC Sacramento: Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues continues on the main card with a fight between Carli Judice and Jeisla Chaves in the women’s flyweight division. Check out our UFC Sacramento odds series for our Judice-Chaves prediction and pick.

Carli Judice (6-2) rides an impressive three-fight win streak into Sacramento, most recently earning a clean unanimous-decision win over Juliana Miller in February 2026. That followed a wild third-round TKO of Nicolle Caliari via knee and punches at UFC 318 in July 2025. The knockout artist, with four of her six wins by finish, now faces a stiff test as she comes into this fight this weekend against Jeisla Chaves.

Jeisla Chaves (7-0) goes from ring card girl to genuine UFC prospect after surviving a competitive split-decision win over Yuneisy Duben in her Octagon debut in June 2026. That capped a dominant Contender Series run that included a decision win in September 2025 to earn her contract. Chaves looks to stay perfect as she comes into this fight this weekend against Carli Judice.

UFC Sacramento Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Sacramento Odds: Carli Judice-Jeisla Chaves Odds

Carli Judice: -550

Jeisla Chaves: +410

Over 2.5 rounds: -154

Under 2.5 rounds: +120

Why Carli Judice Will Win

Carli Judice brings legitimate knockout power into this matchup, having finished four of her six career wins, including a head-kick KO of Yuneisy Duben and a wild third-round TKO of Nicolle Caliari. That kind of finishing ability gives her a puncher’s chance against literally any opponent she shares the cage with.

Jeisla Chaves, despite her perfect 8-0 record, showed real vulnerability in her UFC debut, needing a split decision to get past Yuneisy Duben, the same fighter Judice previously knocked out. That head-to-head comparison suggests Judice’s power translates well against exactly the kind of opponent Chaves struggled to finish decisively.

Judice is also riding a three-fight winning streak of her own, showing improved composure and consistency heading into this bout. Facing a fighter who needed the judges in her promotional debut plays right into Judice’s hands if she can find her range early.

Chaves’s undefeated record has come largely against lesser competition outside the UFC, and her SApM rate suggests she can be hit cleanly. If Judice can capitalize on those openings with her power, she has every tool needed to hand Chaves her first career loss and extend her own momentum in Sacramento.

Why Jeisla Chaves Will Win

Jeisla Chaves enters this fight still perfect at 8-0, a record that speaks to consistent, high-level performance across every stage of her career. Even in a competitive UFC debut against Yuneisy Duben, she found a way to get her hand raised, showing the kind of fight IQ and composure that comes from being truly undefeated.

Carli Judice, meanwhile, already has two losses on her record, and her four finishes have largely come against opposition without Chaves’s well-rounded skill set. Chaves’s balanced attack, split evenly between knockouts and decisions, gives her multiple ways to win regardless of how the fight unfolds.

Chaves’s remarkable journey from ring card girl to undefeated UFC fighter also speaks to a rare mental toughness and self-belief that shouldn’t be underestimated. That inner drive often shows up most in close, competitive rounds, exactly the kind of battle Judice is likely to bring.

Chaves’s split-decision win over Duben proved she can grind out close rounds under pressure rather than needing a finish to succeed. If this fight goes the distance, her championship poise and unblemished résumé should give her the edge needed to keep her perfect record intact against Judice.

Final Carli Judice-Jeisla Chaves Prediction & Pick

Look for Carli Judice to press forward early, looking to establish range with the same kind of power that produced a head-kick knockout of Yuneisy Duben, the same fighter Jeisla Chaves narrowly edged out in her UFC debut. That head-to-head comparison suggests Judice’s power translates well against Chaves’s defensive tendencies.

Chaves showed vulnerability in a split-decision win in her promotional debut, needing all three rounds to get past a similar style of opponent. If Judice can replicate that same kind of clean striking early, she should find success against a fighter who has yet to be truly tested by real power.

By the second round, expect Judice’s volume and finishing instincts to create the opening she needs to close the show. Her three-fight win streak reflects a fighter finding her groove at the right time.

Final Carli Judice-Jeisla Chaves Prediction & Pick: Carli Judice (-550); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+120)

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