Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze prediction, odds, pick for UFC Sacramento

UFC Sacramento: Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues continues on the main card with a fight between Reinier de Ridder and Roman Dolidze in the light heavyweight division. Check out our UFC Sacramento odds series for our de Ridder-Dolidze prediction and pick.

Reinier de Ridder (21-4) enters the Sacramento main event on a two-fight skid, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Caio Borralho at UFC 326 in March 2026. Before that, he suffered a fourth-round TKO loss to Brendan Allen in October 2025, snapping a dominant four-fight winning streak that included finishes of Bo Nickal and Kevin Holland. Now moving up to light heavyweight, the two-division ONE champion looks to rebound as he comes into this fight this weekend against Roman Dolidze.

Roman Dolidze (15-5) goes back up to light heavyweight after a rough middleweight stretch, most recently losing a unanimous decision to Christian Leroy Duncan at UFC Fight Night in March 2026. That followed a fourth-round submission loss to top contender Anthony Hernandez in August 2025, snapping a three-fight winning streak that had included a KO of Kevin Holland. “The Caucasian” now looks to jumpstart his career at 205 pounds as he comes into this fight this weekend against Reinier de Ridder.

UFC Sacramento Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Sacramento Odds: Reinier de Ridder-Roman Dolidze Odds

Reinier de Ridder: -410

Roman Dolidze: +320

Over 2.5 rounds: -140

Under 2.5 rounds: +110

Why Reinier de Ridder Will Win

Reinier de Ridder brings a truly elite grappling résumé into this light heavyweight matchup, having won 13 of his 21 career fights by submission as a former two-division ONE Championship titleholder. That kind of dominant, world-class ground game gives him a significant advantage over Roman Dolidze if this fight hits the mat.

Dolidze, despite his striking power, has already shown vulnerability on the ground, most notably getting submitted by Anthony Hernandez in the fourth round of their August 2025 bout. That same susceptibility to being controlled and finished on the mat plays directly into de Ridder’s biggest strength.

De Ridder’s move up to light heavyweight should also allow him to bring added strength and power into exchanges without the need to cut as much weight, potentially making his wrestling even harder to stop. Dolidze, coming off back-to-back losses of his own, may be fighting from a place of desperation that could lead to mistakes de Ridder is well-equipped to capitalize on.

Given de Ridder’s dominant grappling instincts and Dolidze’s recent struggles with adversity, look for the Dutch Knight to find a path to control this fight on the ground and secure a much-needed bounce-back win in Sacramento.

Why Roman Dolidze Will Win

Roman Dolidze brings legitimate one-punch power into this fight, having scored eight of his 15 career wins by knockout, including a highlight-reel finish of Kevin Holland. That kind of pop, combined with his prior experience competing at light heavyweight and even heavyweight earlier in his career, should serve him well in a bigger weight class.

Reinier de Ridder, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back losses, including a concerning fourth-round TKO defeat to Brendan Allen that raised real questions about his chin and durability against real power. Stepping up to light heavyweight for the first time in the UFC against a proven finisher like Dolidze is a dangerous spot for a fighter already dealing with confidence questions.

Dolidze’s durability, forged through numerous wars against elite middleweight competition, gives him the toughness needed to survive de Ridder’s takedown attempts and find his range on the feet. If he can keep the fight standing even briefly, his knockout power presents a genuine threat to end things before de Ridder can establish his grappling.

Given de Ridder’s recent finishing losses and Dolidze’s proven power at range, look for “The Caucasian” to capitalize on the size and strength move to hand de Ridder a third straight defeat.

Final Reinier de Ridder-Roman Dolidze Prediction & Pick

Expect Reinier de Ridder to lean heavily on his wrestling and elite jiu-jitsu credentials from the opening bell, looking to close distance and neutralize Roman Dolidze’s power on the feet. With 13 of his 21 career wins coming by submission, de Ridder has the tools to make this an uncomfortable night for Dolidze wherever the fight goes.

Dolidze has shown susceptibility to being controlled and finished on the mat before, most notably in his fourth-round submission loss to Anthony Hernandez. That same vulnerability should give de Ridder a clear blueprint to follow against a fighter who thrives more in open striking exchanges.

Look for de Ridder to secure at least one key takedown in the early rounds and grind out top position, wearing Dolidze down physically and mentally. By the later rounds, expect de Ridder to find a fight-ending submission, likely a rear-naked choke or arm-triangle, snapping his two-fight skid with a statement finish in Sacramento.

Final Reinier de Ridder-Roman Dolidze Prediction & Pick: Reinier de Ridder (-410); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-140)

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