Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 113

It’s time for another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 113 as we take a look at this next bout in the Strawweight (115) Division. Fellow Brazilians will meet in the octagon as Bruna Brasil takes on Ketlen Souza in a close fight on the betting lines. Check our UFC odds series for the Brasil-Souza prediction and pick.

Bruna Brasil (11-5-1) has gone 3-3 inside the UFC since 2023. She’s alternated wins and losses over her last seven bouts for a 4-3 record, most recently beating Ming Shi via unanimous decision in her last bout. She comes in the short betting underdog, standing 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.

Ketlen Souza (15-6) has gone 2-3 inside the UFC since 2023. She comes into this fight following back-to-back split decision losses to Angela Hill and Piera Rodriguez, so expect a motivated effort as she tries to get back in the win column. Souza stands 5-foot-3 with a 63-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Vegas 113 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings

UFC Vegas 113 Odds: Bruna Brasil-Ketlen Souza Odds

Bruna Brasil: +130

Ketlen Souza: -155

Over 2.5 rounds: -375

Under 2.5 rounds: +270

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Why Bruna Brasil Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Ming Shi – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Following her last loss to Wang Cong, Bruna Brasil defeated Ming Shi via unanimous decision during the ‘Road to UFC’ tournament. In relegating herself to fight new prospects, Brasil gained the confidence from getting a win back on her record and looking solid while doing so. Consistency was always the issue for her through the initial stages of her run, so she’s hoping to trend in the right direction during this return.

Bruna Brasil is very technical with her striking and does great work to mix in her kicks to all three levels. She’s been consistent with her low leg kicks in the past and if she’s able to get Souza dropping her hands, the high head kick could be open throughout this fight. Timing will be key against an aggressive opponent like Souza as Brasil should look to slip and counter punch on the entries.

In only landing 31 strikes during her last loss, Brasil will have to improve her activity level against her upcoming opponent. Souza doesn’t waste much time in closing the distance and forcing opponents to brawl with her, so Brasil will have to be diligent in her defense and making sure to capitalize on clean shots when the openings are there.

Why Ketlen Souza Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Piera Rodriguez – S DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Ketlen Souza hasn’t been able to catch a break over the last two bouts, losing both by split decision in fights that could have gone her way. She actually led the striking numbers against her most recent opponent Piera Rodriguez, but she surrendered seven takedowns and was controlled on the ground. Her grappling has yet to become a reliable part of her game and she’ll need to improve on her 50% takedown defense rate moving forward.

What she lacks in her grappling Souza more than makes up for with her power and aggressive striking. While it may look chaotic at times, she thrives on landing from the pocket and absorbing shots in return. Her chin has proved to be extremely durable and if she’s able to land consistently, she usually has the better chance of being the last fighter standing.

Souza’s 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute will be the key to her success throughout this fight as her opponent has been known to start slow and fall behind on the totals early. If she’s able to pressure through the first two rounds, Souza should be in the driver’s seat during the back-half of this fight.

Final Bruna Brasil-Ketlen Souza Prediction & Pick

This should be an interesting meeting between two skilled brawlers as both women favor their stand-up kickboxing. We’re not likely to see too much grappling, but Brasil can certainly exploit the gap in Souza’s game if she’s able to gain top position on the ground.

Still, Souza won’t make it so easy for her to close the distance as Brasil is bound to eat some shots on the entries. Her striking looked much improved during her ‘Road to UFC’ bout, so expect a much more fluid striking performance out of her this time around.

While Ketlen Souza should be landing the more damaging shots, I expect Bruna Brasil to be more active with her movement and kicking game around the outside. If she can manage to cut Souza’s movement off and counter with her right hand, she should be able to score enough to sway a decision her way on the scorecards.

Final Bruna Brasil-Ketlen Souza Prediction & Pick: Bruna Brasil (+130); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-375)

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