Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas prediction, odds, pick for UFC Shanghai

UFC Shanghai: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong kicks off the main card with a fight between Bilal Hasan and Nilson Rojas in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC Shanghai odds series for our Hasan-Rojas prediction and pick.

Bilal Hasan (9-0) makes his UFC debut riding pure momentum, stopping Mridul Saikia in 45 seconds via first-round TKO on Dana White’s Contender Series this past August after finishing Renaldy Manse with body punches back in December 2025, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Nilson Rojas.

Nilson Rojas (9-0) makes his UFC debut fresh off a unanimous decision win over the formerly-undefeated Gonzalo Hanampa this past July at Inka FC 59, following a first-round TKO of Wilder Fernandes via punches in August 2025, extending his perfect nine-fight winning streak, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Bilal Hasan.

UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Shanghai Odds: Bilal Hasan-Nilson Rojas Odds

Bilal Hasan:-750

Nilson Rojas: +525

Over 1.5 rounds: -154

Under 1.5 rounds: +120

Why Bilal Hasan Will Win

Bilal Hasan enters this fight with electric finishing instincts, closing out his most recent opponent in just 45 seconds on Dana White’s Contender Series. That kind of composure under the pressure of fighting directly for a UFC contract shows he thrives in high-stakes moments, exactly the environment he’s stepping into against Nilson Rojas.

Hasan’s finishing rate is staggering, with seven knockouts among his nine career wins, a 78% finish rate that speaks to legitimate power and killer instinct. Rojas, while also unbeaten, needed a full three rounds to get past Gonzalo Hanampa in his most recent outing, suggesting his finishing gas tank may not match Hasan’s .

At 25 years old, Hasan is also slightly younger than the 27-year-old Rojas, and that youth could translate to fresher legs and quicker recovery between exchanges over 15 minutes .

Rojas’ TKO-heavy résumé is impressive, but he’s never faced a debut opponent with Hasan’s kind of recent knockout momentum and hype behind him.

Given his blistering finishing speed, adrenaline management already proven on the Contender Series stage, and younger legs, expect Hasan to press the pace early and add Rojas to his growing list of quick knockout victims inside the first two rounds.

Why Nilson Rojas Will Win

Nilson Rojas showed real championship-caliber composure in his most recent fight, going the full three rounds to defeat a previously undefeated opponent in Gonzalo Hanampa. That kind of extended fight experience against a live, unbeaten foe gives him a deeper test of his cardio and fight IQ than anything on Bilal Hasan’s résumé.

Hasan’s finishes have come quickly, including a 45-second stoppage on the Contender Series, but that speed also means he’s largely untested in the championship rounds. If Rojas can survive Hasan’s early power and drag the fight into deeper water, his superior conditioning could become the deciding factor.

Rojas also brings seven knockout wins of his own, proving he isn’t just a decision grinder and can match Hasan’s power if the fight turns into a firefight. That combination of durability and finishing ability makes him a legitimately dangerous stylistic matchup.

Facing a debut opponent with only razor-thin margins separating hype from substance, Rojas’ more varied résumé against increasingly live competition in the competitive Peruvian and South American scenes gives him real credibility heading into the Octagon.

If Rojas can weather Hasan’s early aggression and turn this into a grinding, high-pace battle, his superior conditioning and proven ability to win rounds late should carry him to a hard-fought decision victory.

Final Bilal Hasan-Nilson Rojas Prediction & Pick

Bilal Hasan’s electric finishing ability should be the deciding factor in this clash of unbeaten prospects. His most recent win came in just 45 seconds on Dana White’s Contender Series, proving he can close the show the moment he senses an opening, even under the pressure of fighting directly for a UFC contract.

With seven knockouts among his nine career wins, Hasan’s 78% finish rate reflects legitimate power that Nilson Rojas will need to respect from the opening bell. Rojas needed a full three rounds to get past his last opponent, suggesting his finishing gas tank simply doesn’t match Hasan’s explosiveness .

At 25, Hasan is also the younger man in this matchup, giving him a slight edge in recovery and freshness if the fight extends into the later stages.

Expect Hasan to press forward early, land the harder shots in the opening exchanges, and close the show via knockout before Rojas can settle into any kind of rhythm.

Final Bilal Hasan-Nilson Rojas Prediction & Pick: Bilal Hasan (-750); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-154)

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