Why Giannis trade rumors, Tyler Herro decision will shape Heat’s efforts to escape mediocrity

The days of Jimmy Butler leading the Miami Heat to deep, sometimes unexpected, postseason runs are long gone. Since Butler’s departure, the Heat’s inconsistencies have caught up with them, directly leading to their demise in the NBA Play-In Tournament against the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday.

After losing 127-126 in overtime to the Hornets, the Heat’s season has come to an end, and Erik Spoelstra’s group has missed the playoffs for the first time since the 2018-19 season.

If you are looking at things through the lens of the glass being half full, Miami did make the NBA Finals the following year the last time it missed the postseason, and a lot of talent still exists in South Beach. Then again, this is the fourth straight year the Heat have found themselves in the play-in tournament, a purgatory-like state Bam Adebayo no longer wants to be in.

“I don’t want to be in that s**t no more,” Adebayo said on Feb. 26 after Miami lost 124-117 to the Philadelphia 76ers. “We’re better than being in the play-in for the last four years.”

More recently, after losing 136-111 to the San Antonio Spurs on March 23, Adebayo shared similar remarks when he said, “I don’t want to be in the f*****g play-in.”

Well, Miami made it to the play-in tournament as the 10-seed in the East this year only to face more disappointment. This realm of mediocrity the Heat currently exist in has taken a toll on the franchise, making it time to face a sense of urgency, especially given all the positives existing within the organization.

Adebayo is in the prime of his career and one of the best two-way players in the entire league, and Miami ranked second in scoring at 120.9 points per game this season, trailing only the Denver Nuggets (122.1).

The foundation is certainly there for the Heat to continue building themselves into a championship contender once more, but the major piece of the puzzle that has been missing is a true alpha to lead the pack.

As good as Adebayo is, nobody around the league would claim that he can be the top option on a title-contending team, even after his 83-point outburst this season. The same can be said about Tyler Herro and Norman Powell as well, two other All-Star-level talents on Miami’s roster.

Pat Riley and the Heat’s front office have been patient in their pursuit of an elite-level talent that can lead the franchise, and they have been linked to several MVP-like candidates through the years. From Giannis Antetokounmpo to Kevin Durant to Kawhi Leonard to Damian Lillard, Miami has very much been involved in the top trade conversations around the league through the years.

But the question that still remains revolves around when that trigger will be pulled to finally give the Heat that one top-tier talent they have been missing.

If Wednesday’s loss to Charlotte says anything, it’s that Riley and the Heat must address this issue and push all of their chips in right now to go out and get their No. 1 star.

Does that mean it’s Giannis-or-bust in Miami this offseason?

Another run at Giannis Antetokounmpo trade?

The Heat found themselves among a select group of aggressive suitors highly interested in trading for Giannis in February before the trade deadline, joining the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors.

While all three teams will once again pursue the Milwaukee Bucks star again this offseason, with all signs currently pointing to the generational talent being available on the trade market, plenty of other teams will join the race for The Greek Freak.

Does Miami even have the capability and assets needed to pull off a trade for Giannis in the offseason, especially since Milwaukee already turned down what it had to offer outside of Bam Adebayo?

As the Heat enter the offseason, Antetokounmpo will be at the very top of their wishlist.

Riley and this front office will be willing to give the Bucks anything they want outside of Adebayo, much like they were willing to do in February. The only difference now is that in addition to centering their package around Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, and Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami can also add three legitimate first-round picks and three pick swaps.

It is also possible that the Heat can leverage Andrew Wiggins for more assets, as the former first overall pick is expected to generate plenty of interest on the trade market yet again, sources told ClutchPoints. However, the Miami has shown great reluctance in trade calls for Wiggins over the last year, and gutting half the roster for Antetokounmpo could prove to be problematic.

How the Heat will look to upgrade and change their offer for Giannis is unknown at this time, but the organization is prepared to go all-in on a franchise-altering move to solidify their status at the top of the Eastern Conference. The only player off limits in talks to obtain said player, sources said, is Adebayo.

Miami will undoubtedly receive calls this offseason from teams inquiring about Adebayo after the team came up short of reaching the playoffs, but there are zero indications that he will be made available any time in the near future. Then again, the same cannot be said about Herro, who will be entering the final year of his contract.

Given all the uncertainty surrounding his contract situation, the Heat have been willing to hear offers for Herro dating back to before the trade deadline. Outside of offering him in a deal to the Bucks for Giannis, Miami did hear from two other organizations, one from each conference, that had expressed a level of interest in the 26-year-old at the deadline, sources said.

The Heat never truly pursued a trade involving Herro in February outside of their talks for Antetokounmpo, but the All-Star guard’s future in South Beach is one of the main talking points entering the summer.

Should Miami be turned down again in its quest to strike a trade for Giannis, the franchise will turn its attention to another top-tier name who will come up in offseason trade chatter: Kawhi Leonard.

Although the Heat have pursued Leonard in the past, their attempts were always overshadowed by other stars coming up in rumors, like Giannis and Kevin Durant.

Leonard’s future is certainly a key talking point in league circles as the LA Clippers are fighting to earn a playoff spot and seem prepared to take things in a new direction. Although the Clippers would prefer to keep Leonard alongside Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin, the superstar forward and his camp will give consideration to his future this summer.

From Miami’s perspective, Leonard is still an All-NBA talent despite being 34 years old, and his price in a trade would be significantly less than that of Antetokounmpo’s.

It has become clear that a significant roster change is needed for the Heat to get back to their winning ways, which is why Giannis, Leonard, and any All-Star that becomes available on the trade market will receive heavy consideration from the front office.

Simply put, this roster will not look the same heading into the 2026-27 season.

The Tyler Herro-Norman Powell debate

One of the major changes that could be coming to the Heat in the offseason revolves around Herro and Powell. Both guards have been essential to Miami’s offense, for different reasons.

Whereas Herro has been the team’s top scoring option over the last few seasons, Powell was one of Miami’s most consistent and efficient scorers off the ball this season, averaging 21.7 points per game while shooting 47.0 percent from the floor and 38.0 percent from 3-point range. As a result, Powell earned All-Star honors for the first time in his career.

The main reason why there could be a significant change with Herro and Powell alongside Adebayo is due to their contract situations.

Herro, who did not receive a contract extension offer from the Heat before the start of the 2025-26 season, will be entering the final year of his contract at $33 million. Powell, who was traded to Miami from the Los Angeles Clippers in the offseason, just finished the final year of his contract at $20.5 million and will be entering unrestricted free agency.

Given how weak this year’s free agent class is expected to be, as well as his back-to-back years of averaging over 20 points per game while shooting over 47% from the floor and 38% from 3-point range both seasons, Powell is expected to generate a market exceeding $25 million in annual average value on his next contract.

This past season, Powell ranked 14th in scoring among guards who played in at least 50 games, and he ranked fifth in 3-point shooting percentage meeting this same criteria. Powell was a more efficient scorer than several guards, like Desmond Bane, Jalen Suggs, and CJ McCollum, all of whom own an annual average value of more than $30 million on their respective contracts.

It is clear that Powell has established himself as one of the better shooting guards in the league, but will the Heat be able to retain both him and Herro on new, long-term contracts? While it is certainly possible to do so, the chances of Miami extending both players while also adding a superstar talent and remaining below the tax aprons are impossible.

A decision will need to be made soon between Herro and Powell, and an offseason trade for a superstar would be telling as to whom the organization will choose moving forward since Herro is under contract for one more year.

Although he has only been with the Heat for one season, Powell has been the more efficient and impactful player on the court.

Most players after hitting 30 years old have a defined role and don’t evolve all that much. That is not the case with Powell, who has become an All-Star-level talent and one of the best scoring guards in the entire league.

Since the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons with the Clippers, two years Powell spent coming off the bench as a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Powell has averaged over 20 points per game as a starter both in Los Angeles and in Miami.

Compared to his first two years coming off the bench and shooting an average of 10.9 shots per game at 48.2 percent from the floor, Powell has averaged 15.6 shot attempts per game over the last two years while averaging 47.7 percent from the floor. His efficiency is still extremely high with more shot attempts, and he has averaged 33.4 points per 100 possessions over the last two seasons.

Not to mention, Powell’s true shooting percentage continues to be well above the league average, and his player efficiency rating increased to 17.5 this past season, which ranked 12th among all players 30 or older.

When comparing Powell and Herro to one another, the veteran’s impact has Miami in a better position to win games. With Herro on the court, the Heat had a negative efficiency differential, and Miami’s expected win total was higher when he didn’t play, according to Cleaning the Glass.

For the season, Herro averaged -1.1 in plus-minus, whereas Powell averaged +0.7 in plus-minus.

This is a minor difference, but it makes a world of difference when it comes to how efficient Miami has been on both ends of the court with both players. So, what will the Heat ultimately decide when it comes to Herro and Powell in the summer?

Based on the numbers and watching his production on the court, Miami would be foolish to let Powell walk away in free agency. His efficiency and leadership are invaluable to this organization, and if the Heat are to add another star-level talent in the summer, an established, productive player like Powell will be needed.

As good as Herro is, he has become extremely expendable to Miami with immediate change on the horizon entering the summer.

Is Jaime Jaquez Jr. an odd man out in Miami?

Aside from all the trade talks that will surround the Heat this offseason, Jaime Jaquez Jr. finds himself in an intriguing position with the franchise.

After drawing a lot of criticism for his slight regression and falling out of the rotations at times during his sophomore season, Jaquez bounced back in a huge way during the 2025-26 season, averaging 15.4 points per game and scoring the most points off the bench by any player this season.

That is why Jaquez is in the running for Sixth Man of the Year and has a very compelling case to win the award, which would make him and Herro (2022) the only players in franchise history to receive this honor.

Whether he wins the award or not, Jaquez will enter the offseason with one year remaining on his rookie contract and wanting to lock in his future. Miami has exercised a lot of caution in recent years when it comes to contract extensions, other than giving Nikola Jovic a four-year extension over $60 million last offseason, so it’s unknown whether they would lock in Jaquez right now.

Just looking at the money on the Heat’s books, it’s hard to see where Jaquez’s potential extension, which would most likely be in the $16 million to $22 million per year region, would fit in since Adebayo, Herro, and Wiggins are set to make over $110 million combined next year.

Not to mention, Powell will be a free agent, and if Miami brings him back, that is even less money available for a possible Jaquez extension.

Between being a potential main asset in trade talks for a star and the Heat not having enough financial flexibility after giving Jovic the extension they probably should have waited to give to Jacquez, this season’s potential Sixth Man of the Year could be an odd man out in the equation.

This is yet another major question mark the Heat will need to address, and more clarity on Jaquez’s future will present itself once that first big domino and trade happens in Miami.

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