Why Everton are the clear winners in Brennan Johnson and Dwight McNeil swap deal

Everton have pulled off daylight robbery with a straight swap deal involving Dwight McNeil and Brennan Johnson.

The two clubs announced on Tuesday morning that McNeil is heading to Selhurst Park, with Johnson making the move to Hill Dickinson – without Everton having to fork out a single penny.

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On paper, it is a move that does not immediately make sense, especially considering Palace made Johnson their club-record £35million signing just six months ago.

The 25-year-old has struggled badly since moving to south London, failing to score in 26 appearances for the Eagles.

However, both financially and statistically, Everton are getting the far better end of the bargain.

Speaking on talkSPORT on Monday, Ben Jacobs explained the situation: “It appears quite damaging for Crystal Palace’s books, but it’s a good old-fashioned swap deal.

“It’s probably the first time it’s happened between two Premier League clubs where there doesn’t appear to be any cash changing hands.

“I agree it’s a surprise, because Brennan Johnson, prior to Strand Larson arriving, was briefly Crystal Palace’s record signing.

“Whereas McNeil has a lower market valuation. He thought he was going in January, only to find there was a last-minute paperwork issue which disappointed him at the time.

“But he was sold on that move, personal terms agreed on a four-year contract. They have now been given permission to start their medicals this morning. This will be one going one way, one going the other in a straight swap deal.

“It does feel like, on paper and financially, the deal to gain Johnson is the better one. But I think Palace would argue that Johnson hasn’t worked out there, and the club has always wanted McNeil.”

Everton would never have possessed the financial muscle to purchase Johnson in a standalone transaction had they simply pocketed the £20m Palace originally offered for McNeil in January.

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Instead, Everton have made Palace effectively take a £15m hit under the Premier League’s new squad cost ratio rules.

Both players must be valued at the same figure for the exchange, and when McNeil’s proposed move to Selhurst Park fell through in February, he was valued at £20m.

If this is a true swap deal, and the two players are both valued at £20m, it will represent a £15m loss for Palace.

Will Johnson prove a success for Everton?

His tenure at Selhurst Park was undeniably underwhelming, drawing heavy criticism toward the 25-year-old.

On talkSPORT, Gabby Agbonlahor questioned the deal: “When I saw it, I was like ‘I get it’. Certain managers and certain players suit one another. Maybe David Moyes is looking at it an wants more pace in the side, wanting to use him in that way.

“Also, with Dwight McNeil, there was talk he was leaving in January, and the new [Palace] manager has clearly seen enough of him already and wants to bring him in.”

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Jamie O’Hara replied: “Brennan Johnson has been a myth for a few seasons. He didn’t do it at Spurs. In one of our seasons he got top scorer, but he hides in big games.”

Agbonlahor pointed out: “You look at both of them and their output last season – 16 Premier League appearances for Spurs, two goals, zero assists. Then at Palace, zero goals and one assist.

“But then Dwight McNeil last season: 22 appearances in the Premier League, zero goals, one assist, so he’s not doing enough either.”

O’Hara replied: “It’s like ‘We’ll give you crap, you give us crap back. Call it quits, no charge’.

“I like McNeil. If I were to pick which player would I rather have, I’d take Dwight McNeil. He’s going to work hard, with a lovely left foot. He gives you something.

“Brennan Johnson is just so frustrating because he’s got all the attributes.”

He added: “Maybe it’s a confidence thing, maybe David Moyes might be the right manager for him. He’s got the right attributes, he showed it at Nottingham Forest.”

Statistics, however, can tell a different story. Despite Johnson enduring a rough 18 months for Tottenham and Palace, he has remained far more clinical in the Premier League than McNeil.

Since Johnson was promoted to the top flight with Nottingham Forest, he has scored 37 goals across all competitions. During that same timeframe, McNeil has netted just 15 times.

Looking at goals-per-minute, Everton’s new recruit finds the net once every 253 minutes, whereas Palace’s newest winger scores just once every 908 minutes.

There is a clear gap in clinical edge. The Merseyside outfit are replacing a player with a similar assist rate while more than doubling their goal threat upfront.

Additionally, Johnson offers output that comes from a versatile, high-tempo, vertical approach instead of the structured, possession-orientated role McNeil occupied.

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While O’Hara argued the ex-Forest player was disappointing for Spurs, the 25-year-old finished as the club’s top goalscorer in the 2024/25 campaign with a total of 18 goals.

In comparison, Everton have not had a player hit that mark since Romelu Lukaku in 2016/17.

Even when McNeil was the Toffees’ top scorer in 2023, he managed a grand total of just seven goals.

What will Johnson add to Everton?

A primary criticism of Everton in recent seasons is that the squad has severely lacked raw speed, particularly under Sean Dyche and David Moyes.

When the Premier League published sprint data in April and highlighted the fastest recorded sprints since the 2020/21 season.

Johnson featured 15th on the list by clocking 36.70 km/h against Manchester City in 2023.

With Spurs’ Micky van de Ven and Wolves’ Jackson Tchatchoua each appearing twice on that list, statistically only 11 Premier League players have achieved a higher top speed than the 25-year-old.

Moyes can now harness Johnson’s explosive pace in counter-attacking setups—a vital asset for an Everton side that registered the fourth-lowest possession average in England’s top flight last term.