The LaMelo Ball trade makes absolutely no sense for the Hornets

LaMelo Ball feels like the most polarizing player in the NBA. His highlight reel is a thing of beauty, full of dazzling passes, daring crossovers, and pull-up shooting with range that only Steph Curry can rival. Of course, Ball can also be a maddening player. His shot selection is exasperating when the ball isn’t going through the net, his on-ball defense can be atrocious, and there are many examples of his audacious passes turning into unforgivable turnovers.

The Charlotte Hornets made a stunning decision to trade Ball on Thursday morning, sending him to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Naz Reid, one future first-round pick, three future first-round swaps, and three second round picks. Most of the mainstream media outlets believe the Wolves are crazy for making this deal. ESPN gave Minnesota a D+ for the trade, The Athletic said it was an A- for the Hornets and a D+ for the Wolves, and Yahoo! gave Charlotte an A and Minnesota a C. Michael Wilbon said Ball isn’t as valuable as Reid.

It sure seems like the perception of Ball off the court is impossible to untangle from his production on it for most analysts. Ball has earned a reputation as the NBA’s clown prince for his reckless driving, his ridiculous tattoos, and his penchant to speak in slang that confuses older people. Ball isn’t actually that young anymore, he turns 25 years old just before the season, but he still feels like a caricature of everything older people don’t like about Gen Z.

The character assassinations on Ball are a little bit perplexing considering his Charlotte teammate Miles Bridges seems to face less pushback despite some horrifying domestic violence charges. It also overlooks that LaMelo is something of an analytical darling who left a massively positive influence on winning for the Hornets last season.

The Hornets started last season 11-22. After that, they finished 33-16 with the best net-rating in the NBA. With a better supporting cast around him, Ball trimmed some of the fat in his game, stayed healthy, and turned in an incredible season. When Ball was on the court, the Hornets out-scored teams by about eight points per 100 possessions — when he was off, Charlotte essentially played teams even. When Ball shared the floor with Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller, Charlotte was +15.1 per 100 possessions. When Ball sat and the other two played, Charlotte was negative 7.4 per 100 possessions.

In fairness, Charlotte put up some electric numbers with Coby White in place of Ball last season, but that was in a much, much smaller sample of minutes. White now takes over for Ball as Charlotte’s starting point guard after inking a new three-year extension. White is good, and he plays a more reliable game than Ball, but it feels like Charlotte also significantly lowered its ceiling in the process.

My favorite all-in-one NBA stat is EPM. LaMelo Ball was the 12th best player in the NBA by that metric last year. The other all-in-ones love LaMelo, too.

What makes Ball so good in these stats? It mostly comes down to his ability to improve his team’s scoring efficiency when he’s on the floor. Ball’s scoring efficiency is below-average on an individual level with 54.6 percent true shooting last year, but Charlotte finally figured out he could still drive an efficient offense if they loaded up on offensive rebounders. Moussa Diabaté became a revelation for Charlotte last season because he can grab Ball’s misses. Besides creating second-chance points, Ball’s passing also leads to efficient scoring chances. He had 4.8 rim assists per 100 possessions last year, which ranked in the 92nd percentile of the league. He ranked in the 93rd percentile in “teammate effective field goal percentage on potential assists.”

While he’s not really a good defender, Ball is a great defensive rebounder (99th percentile among guards), and he’s surprisingly quick to loose balls.

The Hornets were so good in the second half of the season that it’s shocking they decided against giving the team another chance. It’s even more surprising because Charlotte really didn’t get all that much back in return for him. The Hornets essentially only got one real pick swap (in 2028) and one first-round pick along with Reid because of complications with the other swaps.

How will Ball work out in Minnesota? I’m not sure. The Wolves are very thin in the front court now after dumping Julius Randle and Reid. I wish they had a bigger player on the wing than Ayo Dosunmu. Dosunmu is a personal favorite of mine as someone who has closely followed his career since he was in high school, but the five-year, $112 million contract they promised him before the Ball trade immediately felt like an overpay.

The Wolves are still going to be underdogs against the Thunder and Spurs next season, but at least they have more variance in a potential matchup with either after trading for Ball. LaMelo and Anthony Edwards are two of the most high-volume pull-up three-point shooters in the NBA. Minnesota will try to beat OKC and San Antonio by bombing away from three. Maybe they can actually pull off an upset if those shots drop in a short series.

I’ve been a LaMelo apologist for his entire career. When his dad started the “JBA” during his high school years, I was the only media member in the gym in Chicago to watch him play. I also rated LaMelo as my No. 1 prospect coming into the 2020 NBA Draft. While Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton have probably been better so far, Ball has still been damn good when he plays.

When he plays carries a ton of weight — and it’s the most sensible reason for why Charlotte traded him. Ball averages 48 games played per year. He was mostly healthy this past season with 72 games played, but it’s possible he has chronic ankle injuries that will prevent him from being a full-time player moving forward. LaMelo’s brother Lonzo tragically saw his body break down at an early age. Hopefully those damn Big Baller Shoes don’t cut short LaMelo’s career, too.

The Hornets will look like geniuses if LaMelo keeps getting hurt. They know his body better than anyone, so maybe I shouldn’t doubt them. It’s just that if LaMelo stays healthy, he can make magic happen. He is a borderline superstar player by the advanced stats, not just the highlights, and he clearly had a big impact on winning for Charlotte last year.

The Hornets were primed to be the most fun to watch this season with LaMelo in the lineup. Maybe Charlotte will still be real good with Coby White and rookie Christian Anderson running the show, but it feels like they just lowered their ceiling in a big way.