Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento prediction, odds, pick for UFC Baku

The UFC is back on the road from Baku, Azerbaijan as we open this Fight Night with a prediction and pick for this opening Welterweight (170) scrap. Azerbaijan’s own Tahir Abdullayev will take on Brazil’s Jefferson Nascimento as both talents make their promotional debuts. Check our UFC odds series for the Abdullayev-Nascimento prediction and pick.

Tahir Abdullayev (21-3) makes his UFC debut on a four-fight winning streak in various organizations, finishing one via knockout and notching submissions in his last three. Getting the call to fight in his home country on just a week’s notice, Abdullayev will look to notch the victory standing 5-foot-8 with an unreported reach.

Jefferson Nascimento (13-0) will debut on short notice after having just won the LFA Lightweight title on May 29, 2026. The undefeated prospect is 6-0 inside LFA and 5-0 inside Shooto Brasil, ranking as the No. 7 Lightweight in all of Central and South America. He’ll look to cash in on this debut standing 5-foot-8 with a 71-inch reach.

UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Baku Odds: Tahir Abdullayev-Jefferson Nascimento Odds

Tahir Abdullayev: -108

Jefferson Nascimento: -112

Over 2.5 rounds: -145

Under 2.5 rounds: +114

Why Tahir Abdullayev Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Siavash Dadras – SUB (guillotine choke, R2)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB

Tahir Abdullayev will have the opportunity to fight in front of his home country fans as he steps back into the octagon for the first time since October 2025. He’s previously appeared in UAE Warriors, but has notched his last four-straight wins all in differing organizations. Three of those have come by submissions on the ground adding to his seven total finishes by the method, posing a dangerous look in the grappling as he welcomes a fellow debuting opponent.

Abdullayev fights behind a strong wrestling and Combat Sambo base. He makes great use of collar ties and the thai clinch, intent on slowly dragging his opponent to the ground. From there, Abdullayev retains tremendous top control and remains active with his punches while advancing through transitions. He’s constantly waiting to tire his opponent and force a mistake out of them so he can finish the fight.

During this outing, Abdullayev will have to remain patient against an equally dangerous grappler in Nascimento who could be the more explosive talent. However, control will be the name of the game for Abdullayev as he’ll be focused on positioning and limiting Nascimento’s offense.

Why Jefferson Nascimento Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Gian Maurente – KO (body kick, R4)
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 3 SUB

Jefferson Nascimento will make his anticipated UFC debut on short notice as well, but he’s much fresher having just defended an interim belt in LFA less than a month ago. His last three fights have been championship bouts and he’ll certainly come in the more experienced fighter in terms of facing tougher competition. He’s certainly the more explosive athlete and will fight behind the higher knockout upside.

Nascimento is a very solid striker and although he’s shown to be reckless in the past, he remains undefeated and can devastate opponents when he lands clean. He has solid takedown defense, which should serve him well against the consistent chain wrestling he’ll likely see from Abdullayev. While he may be undersized in terms of frame, he should be able to force more action out of Abdullayev than he’s accustomed to.

To be successful here, Nascimento will have to time Abdullayev’s closings perfectly and catch him flush on the way in. He’s done so with uppercuts and elbows in the past, so don’t put the knockout past him as the underdog. Still, his defense on the feet will have to improve and he’ll have to limit over-extending himself and falling victim to the constant takedowns.

Final Tahir Abdullayev-Jefferson Nascimento Prediction & Pick

This should be an interesting matchup as Tahi Abdullayev comes in the surprising underdog on home soil. He’s a suffocating wrestler and will have the advantage of fighting on home turf, so expect a conservative approach as he tries to win this fight behind control time and positioning in the grappling.

For Jefferson Nascimento, takedown defense and countering whenever Abdullayev closes the distance will be the key to his success. He’ll need to time his uppercuts perfectly to catch his opponent, otherwise he may be spending unnecessary minutes on the ground struggling with Abdullayev.

This could be a good spot to take a chance on the underdog as Nascimento will also have the edge in athleticism and fluidity. He’s seen these types of looks in the past and if he can effectively get back to his feet each round, he should have a solid chance finishing this fight with a knockout. We’ll roll with Jefferson Nascimento to open the card with an upset, although the total under could be a safer play as both sides will be threatening the finish.

Final Tahir Abdullayev-Jefferson Nascimento Prediction & Pick: Jefferson Nascimento (-112); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+114)

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