Spurs vs. Thunder 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals Game 5 prediction, odds, pick

The San Antonio Spurs did something more than even their Western Conference series in their 103-82 triumph over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4. Thanks in large part to Victor Wembanyama’s 33-point effort, the Spurs served notice that they are a major threat to take out the defending NBA champions. They should have at least an even chance to win 2 of 3 games and advance to the NBA Finals.

Instead of holding on for a narrow victory, the Spurs took it to the Thunder for 48 minutes and dominated the game. They have served notice that they believe they are the better team and they are going to end the Thunder’s reign as NBA champions after one season. Wembanyama played a ferocious game that included 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocked shots and 2 steals.

He also got a big assist from De’Aaron Fox, who scored 12 points and added 10 rebounds. While Wembanyama had a superior all-around game to propel the Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled. He scored 19 points to lead his team, but he made just 6 of 15 shots and turned the ball over 4 times. The Spurs went after Gilgeous-Alexander aggressively and made him work hard on each of his possessions. It was a challenge for SGA to take his shots or find his teammates.

The Thunder did not get the kind of production from Chet Holmgren they needed. He had just 10 points on 3 of 8 shooting. Isaiah Hartenstein had 12 points and 7 rebounds, but he is not the kind of offensive player who is capable of turning the game in the Thunder’s favor.

San Antonio dominated at home in Game 4, and now the Spurs will try to play with the same ferocity on the road in Game 5. The Spurs won Game 1 on the road and they know they are capable of doing the same in the pivotal fifth game.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Spurs vs. Thunder Odds

San Antonio Spurs: +5.5 (-110)

Oklahoma City Thunder: -5.5 (-110)

Over: 215.5 (-110)

Under: 215.5 (-110)

Spurs vs. Thunder Injuries

Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams (hamstring) questionable; Ajay Mitchell (calf strain) questionable

San Antonio Spurs: No injuries reported

Spurs vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Spurs had a 62-20 regular-season record; 29-12 on the road
• The Spurs are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
• The Spurs are 56-40-2 ATS this season, including the postseason.
• The Spurs are +164 (bet $100 to win $164) on the money line.
• The Thunder had a 64-18 regular-season record; 34-7 straight up on the road.
• The Thunder are 46-48 ATS, including the postseason.
• The Thunder are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games.
• The Thunder are -198 (bet $198 to win $100) on the money line.

Keys to Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 Matchup

The Thunder are such a sharp and efficient team that any time they suffer a one-sided defeat, it’s a shocking development. Oklahoma City will take nothing for granted after suffering through the blowout loss. They responded well in Game 2 after losing the opener at home, and they have the two-time Most Valuable Player to lead the way.

Gilgeous-Alexander excels at putting the previous game in the past. He will welcome the opportunity to lead his team against this substantial and hungry opponent. However, Gilgeous-Alexander needs a better effort from Holmgren, Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe. Caruso was a spark plug in the Game 2 and 3 victories with 17 and 15 points, respectively. Shockingly, Caruso was scoreless in 14 minutes of action in Game 4

The other keys for the Thunder will be the availability of Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf). Neither were able to suit up in Game 4 and Oklahoma City needs both players to contribute.

The Spurs seems to have the advantage in depth at this point. Wembanyama is leading and driving his team, but he has an excellent supporting cast with Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper making key contributions.

If Wembanyama can come close to his Game 3 performance and his teammates can play well, this game should come down to the final moments.

Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 Prediction and Pick

The Thunder knows they are going up against an opponent that has matured and is fully confident in its ability compete on even terms. There can be no questioning what happened in the Game 4 blowout on the road. That game is in the past and it doesn’t matter at this point.

Gilgeous-Alexander understands this and he will be up for the challenge. He does not have two subpar games in a row, and the Thunder will bounce back with one of their best games on their home floor.

Wembanyama is not about to shrink away from the task at hand just because he is playing on the road. Hartenstein and the Thunder may come after him physically with the idea of trying to throw him off of his game, but he has made significant progress. In addition to standing up to his opponents, he has grown in the mental and emotional areas of the game.

This will come down to the final possessions, and while the Spurs will keep it close, the Thunder will find a way to control the final moments and earn the victory and a 3-2 edge in the series.

Final Spurs-Thunder Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs +5.5 (-110); OVER 215.5 (-110).

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