Sabres’ nightmare seeding, matchup scenarios for 2026 NHL Playoffs

The Buffalo Sabres continue their roll in what has been a magical season to this point. The Sabres are in first place in the Atlantic Division, six points ahead of the second-place Tampa Bay Lightning. They have currently reeled off four straight victories, including three on the road and that has allowed them to tie the Carolina Hurricanes for the most points in the Eastern Conference.

After a brutal start to the season, the Sabres have had the best record in the league since mid-December. It’s hard for many Sabres supporters to fully comprehend the state of the team because the team has struggled for so long. Buffalo has not been a playoff participant since 2011 as the team has endured a dreadful dry spell.

It has suddenly turned around and head coach Lindy Ruff’s team appears headed for the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Sabres will clearly feel great about their regular-season accomplishments, and they should. However, once the regular season concludes with an April 15 home game against the Dallas Stars, the Sabres have to start over at 0-0.

The team may have played free and easy hockey after showing dramatic improvement, but stars like Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin and Alex Tuch will be under pressure to produce in the Stanley Cup playoffs

The pressure may be highest during the first round. If the Sabres end up playing an experienced playoff team — even one that is seeded seventh or eighth — it could be a far more difficult challenge than would be expected.

Bruins, Canadiens or Penguins have playoff experience

There is no reason to think that the Sabres are going to slip from their current perch atop the Atlantic Division and they could take the No. 1 seed away from the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference. While the Sabres are currently playing more efficient hockey that the Colorado Avalanche, earning the NHL’s Presidents Trophy and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs seems unlikely.

The Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings were holding down the No. 7 and 8 spots prior to Saturday night’s play, but the New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets and the Philadelphia Flyers have a chance to finish in those spots.

The Bruins finished out of the playoffs last year, but they had made it eight straight times prior to the 2024-25 season and Marco Sturm’s team knows what playoff hockey is all about. The Canadiens made the playoffs last year and got their feet wet after a long absence. The Penguins feature veteran playoff performers Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson, and that would give them a sense of familiarity when the playoffs begin.

Experienced opponents unlikely to panic

Experience is likely to prevent any of those teams from playing with a sense of panic. If a team like the Penguins lost the first game at the Key Bank Center in Buffalo by a three goals or more, there would be no panic. A blowout loss does not count any more than a narrow defeat in in overtime and the Penguins would not lose confidence in such a situation.

If Pittsburgh rebounded in Game 2 and won a close game on the road, the Sabres may not be as confident when the series resumes in Game 3 on the Penguins’ home ice.

That’s where Ruff would have to do his job and convince his team that nothing is wrong and that they could simply overcome an early loss in the series. For that matter, if the seventh- or eighth-seed team extends the series to six or seven games, the head coach would have to help his team keep an even keel and believe it can win the series.

Later rounds may see the pressure dissipate, but experience factor will remain in play

If the Sabres can get past the first round, they will likely play the winner of matchup between the No. 2 and 3 seeds in the Atlantic Division. The Tampa Bay Lightning could be the No. 2 seed, and the Sabres chased them most of the season before passing them in recent weeks.

At one point in January and February, the Lightning went 19-1-1 and were basically unstoppable. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy don’t have to take a back seat to any other group of stars, and they could turn it back on in the playoffs.

Jon Cooper’s team has clearly been there many times before and they would not be intimidated by the young Sabres. It could be a great series and the Sabres would be hard-pressed to beat the Lightning in a best-of-7 matchup.

A meeting in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Hurricanes would also be a challenge, but if the Sabres came into that matchup already having won two series, they would be in great shape. Carolina has not been able to advance past the Eastern Conference Finals, and Rod Brind’Amour’s team would be feeling as much or more pressure than the Sabres.

The first two rounds of the playoffs would be the most pressure-filled for the Sabres and could be the team’s nightmare matchups.

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