Pirates’ historic slump signals better days ahead

For most teams, a historic collapse at the plate would be a devastating way to end a season. For the Pirates, it’s progress.

The Pirates posted a .768 OPS in the first half of 2026. Only the Dodgers had a better mark across the majors. Since the All-Star Break, however, the Pirates have a .651 OPS. Only the Angels have a worse mark. That 117-point drop amounts to a tOPS+ of 79 in the second half of the season, which is tied for the largest drop in OPS in Major League history, according to Baseball Reference.

Expectations were fairly low in Pittsburgh heading into 2026. FanGraphs projected the Pirates for a 78-win season; Baseball Prospectus projected them for 80. It seemed unlikely this would be another 100-loss atrocity like 2021 and 2022, but there was a sense the organization had stalled, with still some distance between them and .500.

The few bright spots that existed on the roster were mostly limited to the pitching staff, whether that be Paul Skenes or the other young hurlers looking for their Skenes-ian break. The outlook for the lineup, meanwhile, remained bleak. Spencer Horowitz was the only batter on the 2025 squad to post a wRC+ greater than 100, in what was the second worst lineup in the majors. And while some new additions were coming off decent years, the offseason was marked more by the batters they didn’t land than the ones they did. The Pirates as a team have posted just one above average season at the plate by wRC+ since the days of Barry Bonds. Offense just isn’t something that tends to exist in Pittsburgh.

Then the season started. And the Pirates hit. And they hit, and they hit, and they hit some more. They scored 153 runs in April — the third most runs they’ve scored in a month this century. That was only the beginning. They posted a 110 wRC+ in May and followed it up with a 118 wRC+ in June. They were swinging at strikes, working counts, drawing walks, and hitting the ball hard. Pretty much anything a team can do well at the plate, they were doing it.

Batting coach Matt Hague told reporters in April they want to be both consistent and dynamic at plate.

“They’re bringing [pitchers] into their zones,” Hague said of his batters. “Our messaging the first couple months, including Spring Training, has been getting our best swings off. A lot goes into that, but when we’re going well, that’s what’s happening.”

The Pirates surged into the All-Star break and finished the first half with a 110 wRC+. Their 516 runs scored was tied with the Nationals for most in the majors. It wouldn’t have been ridiculous to claim the league’s best offense belonged to Pittsburgh. We’d never seen anything like it in Ben Charington’s tenure as general manager:

Of course, the plot also shows what happened next. The offense vanished when the Pirates returned from the break. Their walk rate dropped, their strikeout rate exploded, and the power was nowhere to be found. They’ve scored the third fewest runs in the second half, and their 79 wRC+ ranks next to last behind only the Angels.

The most notable change comes from the absence of Konnor Griffin, who landed on the injured list just as he was getting hot. Griffin entered the season as the unanimous number one prospect in baseball. The Pirates seemed to agree, giving him a 9-year, $140 million extension before he made his debut. Griffin struggled initially after getting the call on April 3. That’s not surprising for a 19-year old, regardless of his prospect pedigree. But it was disheartening to see him hit .182/.247/.242 with a 30.1% strikeout rate over his first 20 days in the majors. Then in his first at bat on April 24 — his 20th birthday — Griffin hit his first Big League homer.

Griffin picked up two more hits and a stolen before the day was done. He picked up two more hits and another stolen base the next day as well. From there, he never looked back. Griffin hit .314/.368/.472 (129 wRC+) while stealing 16 of 17 bases in 40 games after turning 20, more than justifying his tip-top prospect status. 

Then the bad news: Griffin tore a ligament in his finger while diving for a ball in early July. He would miss two months, and only returned just last week. Not only was it a blow to Griffin’s development and his chances at Rookie of the Year, but Pirates shortstops posted a 60 wRC+ in his absence.

The Pirates also lost quite a bit when Ryan O’Hearn landed on the injured list in late July with a quadriceps strain. O’Hearn hadn’t necessarily recaptured his brilliance from the first half of 2025, when he posted a 136 wRC+ for the Orioles. But he’d been perfectly solid after signing a two-year deal over the offseason, slugging 17 home runs and extending the middle of the Pirates’ lineup. O’Hearn split time between a couple positions but took most of his reps in right field. Pirates right fielders have hit .172/.280/.279 (59 wRC+) in his absence.

Horowitz, often the only productive batter in Pittsburgh in 2025, has also seen his season derailed by injury. He’d been business as usual with a 132 wRC+ through June 24, putting together a third-straight season as one of the best platoon bats in the majors. But he landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain, then got hit in the head by a pitch on a rehab assignment and suffered a concussion. Horowitz finally returned on August 2, but has yet to get going, with just one extra base hit (a double) and a 13 wRC+.

Injuries don’t quite explain what’s happened to Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates veteran outfielder entered the year looking to bounce back from a poor (by his standards) showing in 2025. There was some talk his best days were behind him, now on the wrong side of 30. But bounce back doesn’t begin to describe Reynolds’ performance early in 2026. He was a top 20 hitter by wRC+ (141) at the All-Star Break, with a 14.7% walk rate and 47.3% hard hit rate. Not only had he alleviated concerns of age-related decline, this was maybe the best Reynolds had looked since 2021. Unfortunately, it didn’t last. He started striking out a ton after the break. And when he finally cut down on the whiffs in August, the power disappeared. I’m not sure there’s any specific culprit, other than the natural flow of a baseball season. And that very well may be the case, as Reynolds over the last few weeks is back to scorching the baseball. The results are starting to return.

Not everyone in Pittsburgh has suffered this second-half affliction. Oneil Cruz hasn’t missed a beat since returning from a broken hand that kept him out for two months. He’s having his best-ever season with a 124 wRC+, even if the 34.7% strikeout rate looks a bit ugly. Brandon Lowe has had some ups-and-downs in his first year in Pittsburgh, but he’s on something of a hot streak at the moment, and his 115 wRC+ is right at his career norm. There’s a variety of other prospects and utility players who have had good and bad stretches throughout the season, and not everyone fits into this surge-and-slump narrative.

The Pirates enter the final stretch of 2026 with an exactly average 100 wRC+. They’ve done it in an odd fashion, and it won’t feel great if their slump continues and winds up as the final note of the season. But there’s a real chance they could finish the year with a net-positive group of hitters for the first time since 2014 and the second time since 1991. That’s something.

The Pirates themselves will see this as a consolation prize, of course. They’re firmly out of the playoff picture and two games below .500. But looking ahead, there’s more to feel good about than there was at this time last year. Griffin was as good as advertised when healthy and already looks like one of the best young players in the game. Reynolds bounced back and could remain productive at the plate into his mid-30s. Cruz took an impressive step forward and is only just entering his prime years. That’s a solid core on its own, and the front office did well to supplement them with a competent mix of promotions, signings, and trades. 

To me, the collapse after the break reads more like a coincidence, with a few poorly timed injuries to key players, rather than a total erasure of their early excellence. I think they’re closer to that first half performance than the second going forward. That’s not to say I think the Pirates should expect to have the best offense in the majors in 2027. But they also don’t need to. They’re going to finish the year with a top 10 pitching staff, and they’ll be projected for a top 10 staff again next year. If they continue to pursue productive veterans batters, and continue to do well developing their prospects, they’ll have a well-rounded and competitive roster. Sure, the late slump makes this season feel like a missed opportunity. But that the Pirates were even in a position to collapse is something close to progress.