Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction, odds, pick for 2026 NFL season opener

It is a rematch of Super Bowl LX to open up the NFL season on Wednesday night. The New England Patriots hit the road to open the year as they face the Seattle Seahawks. It is time to continue the NFL odds series with a Patriots-Seahawks prediction and pick.

The Patriots finished the season 14-3 in 2025, winning the AFC East for the first time since 2019. They took out the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round, before wins over the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos. They would then fall to the Seahawks, 29-13, in the Super Bowl. There were some changes to the roster in the offseason. Srefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte are both gone, but A.J. Brown comes in from the Eagles. Meanwhile, the team also added Alijah Vera-Tucker and Walter Rouse on the offensive line. The Patriots also just gave out a huge contract extension to Christian Gonzalez.

The Seahawks also won their division in 2025, after a 14-2 season. This gave them a bye in the playoffs and a game against the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round. After dominating the 49ers, the team took out the Los Angeles Rams before winning the Super Bowl. The Seahawks lost Kenneth Walker III but added Jadarian Price in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, the team also added Dante Fowler, Rodney Thomas, and Avery Smith in the offseason.

Odds provided by DraftKings

Patriots vs. Seahawks Odds

Patriots: +3 (-102)

Seahawks: -3 (-118)

Over: 44.5 (-108)

Under: 44.5 (-112)

Patriots vs. Seahawks Key Injuries

Patriots-  OL Ben Brown (Out), DT Christian Barmore (Questionable), RB TreVeyon Henderson (Doubtful)

Seahawks- S Ty Okada (Questionable), S Nick Emmanwori (Questionable), WR Tory Horton (Questionable), T Josh Jones (Questionable), G Anthony Bradford (Probable), TE AJ Barner (Probably), CB Julian Neal (Probable), RB Emanuel Wilson

Patriots vs. Seahawks Betting Trends

– The Patriots were 13-8 against the spread in 2026, but did not cover against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.

– The Patriots covered four out of the seven times they were an underdog last season.

– The over hit in 12 Patriots games last season, and five times on the road.

– The Seahawks were 15-5 against the spread last year, including the playoffs.

– The Seahawks were 13-4 against the spread when a favorite. 

– The over hit in 11 of the Seahawks’ 20 games last year, but not against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Keys to Patriots vs. Seahawks matchup

For the Patriots, it all starts with protecting Drake Maye. He was sacked six times, losing 43 yards agaisnt the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Even more, four of the sacks came on four-man rushes from the Seattle defensive front. The Pats worked on improving their offensive line in the offseason. Jaren Wilson moves to center, while the newest addition, Alijah Vera-Tucker, comes in at left guard. Will Campbell is also healthy and will man one of the tackle spots. If Maye can get time, he needs to get AJ Brown involved early and often. Meanwhile, the team has to establish the ground game early. With the possibility of TreVeyon Henderson being out for the game, Rhamondre Stevenson will shoulder the load.

On defense, the Patriots need to force turnovers. It is something that the team did not do in the Super Bowl, losing the turnover battle 3-0. Further, they have to slow down the running game, getting the Seahawks offense into obvious passing downs. Kenneth Walker ran for 135 yards against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. He is now with the Kansas City Chiefs, and with Zach Charbonnet on the PUP list, it will be Jadarian Price and George Holani in the backfield. If they can stiffle the running game, maybe the Pats can get pressure on Sam Darnold, something they did not do the last time they faced off.

For the Seahawks, they need to establish the run game early and not get into third-down situations. While the Patriots’ pass rush is missing Harold Landry, allowing them to get into pass rush situations, especially from the interior defensive line, could be dangerous for the Seahawks. More importantly, the offense needs to find ways to get Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp open. With Christian Gonzalez on the other side, they could move the receivers into the slot, facing the Patriots’ linebackers and safeties.

On defense, forcing Drake Maye outside of the pocket is going to be key. Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, and Jarran Reed need to win battles on the interior portion of the line. That will cause the pocket to collapse and require Maye to move outside of the pocket, which was highly successful in the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Seahawks also have to eliminate explosive plays. The weapons for the Pats, such as AJ Brown, DeMario Douglas, and Hunter Henry, can make explosive plays, but if they are limited, the Seahawks will be in a great spot to get the win.

Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction and Pick

The Seahawks are looking to start their Super Bowl defense strong. Since 2004, the defending Super Bowl champions are 13-5 agaisnt the spread in the kickoff showcase. This is also the third Week 1 Super Bowl rematch, and the defending champion has won both of the previous two times. The Seahawks have been dominant when they do not allow a 100-yard rusher. The Patriots are going to have a difficult time getting the running game going, and that is going to lead to third-and-long situations for the Patriots. Meanwhile, the Seattle offense should be able to chew clock and get the win.

Final Patriots vs. Seahawks Prediction and Pick: Seahawks (-3) and Under 44.5 (-112)

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