NFL Draft star is this year’s Shedeur Sanders and rebuilding team must be ‘cautious’ after college ‘crumble’

Ty Simpson could be the next Boomer Esiason.

Or the former Alabama quarterback could become the next Zach Wilson, Mitch Trubisky and Trey Lance.

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Will Ty Simpson be an NFL Draft bust?

While the ‘perfect’ Fernando Mendoza is 99.99 percent guaranteed to become the No. 1 overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft and join Tom Brady‘s rebuilding Las Vegas Raiders, Simpson is on the verge of becoming this year’s Shedeur Sanders.

Some NFL draft analysts are convinced that Simpson will be better than Mendoza in the pros.

Others are adamant that Simpson’s lack of experience and precision will turn a first-round selection into potential bust status in the years to come.

“Fifteen career games just makes me really cautious, just because of the lack of experience,” ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid exclusively told talkSPORT.

“So I personally don’t have him graded as a first-round player right now. He’s going to end up my 48th overall ranked player. 

“I see him more as an early-to-mid second round prospect right now. I would feel more comfortable taking him in that area.”

ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky has been Simpson’s biggest fan during the build up to the draft, waving the flag of a a 6ft 1in and 211lb prospect who spent three seasons as a Crimson Tide backup, then led Bama to an 11-4 record and the College Football Playoffs when he finally was given the ball as a full-time starter.

“I promise you people are going to be surprised about how the ball pops off of his hands. He will rip the football,” Orlovsky said.

Arizona Cardinals linked to Simpson pick

Mel Kiper Jr. has Simpson going to the Arizona Cardinals at No. 30 via trade in the latest mock draft from the famous ESPN draft analyst.

“You might have heard that Simpson has started only 15 games, and that lack of experience is a concern,” Kiper wrote.

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“But he is also accurate, mobile and smart in the way he dissects opponent defenses. He threw 28 touchdown passes to only five interceptions last season. Why not take a swing at the most important position in the game?”

Reid also connected Simpson with Arizona, who holds the No. 3 overall pick but could take Ohio State linebacker/edge rusher Arvell Reese or Texas Tech edge David Bailey with that premium selection.

“One logical fit that makes a lot of sense is the Arizona Cardinals” Reid said.

“Not only just because they have a lack of a young quarterback in the building with only Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew on the roster right now at the signal caller spot. But also with the (Mike) LaFleur schematics, as far as what he wants to do with that offense. I think he (Simpson) matches that really, really well.”

Simpson’s intelligence is his best asset

Simpson helped his draft stock at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis, showcasing pro-ready accuracy and field discipline.

The native of Martin, Tennessee grew up admiring one of the greatest QBs of all-time and drew early inspiration from Patrick Mahomes.

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Reid praised Simpson’s intelligence and believes that his mental acumen can be an NFL asset on the field.

“Ty is super smart,” Reid said.

“He’s really cerebral and I think he’s ahead of the learning curve that he’s on. And what I mean by that is, he’s only started 15 career games — but he didn’t look like it, especially pre-November (2025) with him. 

“That eight- or nine-game stretch that he had during that point where they played a lot of ranked teams — I think they played four ranked teams in that stretch — I thought he had a chance to be the first quarterback off of the board during that stretch.”

Late-season ‘crumble’ and Indiana blowout

The problem in Reid’s draft evaluation of Simpson is what followed.

The Crimson Tide started 8-1, then dropped two of four contests and were blown out 38-3 by Mendoza’s Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl.

Factor in Simpson’s overall inexperience, and an NFL team will be betting high-risk vs high-reward if it takes the Alabama QB high in the first round.

“Post-November, things just started to crumble,” Reid said.

“Not only for him, but also Alabama just couldn’t run the football, they had some injuries and some drop issues along the perimeter at receiver, as well. 

“So you saw some things really crumble around him. But the lack of experience really showed up with him really post-November.”

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Simpson is ready to bet on himself in NFL

Esiason was the No. 38 overall (second round) pick in the 1984 draft, and went on to make four Pro Bowls, win an NFL MVP award and lead the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl.

Trubisky (No. 2 pick in 2017), Wilson (No. 2 in 2021) and Lance (No. 3 in 2021) are proof of the perils of overdrafting a QB.

Sanders fell all the way to the No. 144 overall selection (fifth round) last year, then started seven games for the Cleveland Browns and made the Pro Bowl.

Simpson is alternately being praised and doubted a week before the 2026 NFL Draft.

His football future is in his hands.

“Come watch me throw. Everybody will refrain from that from now on,” Simpson recently said.

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