Netherlands vs. Sweden 2026 World Cup predictions, odds, pick

It is game two of the Group Stage in Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Sweden comes in off a dominating win over Tunisia in their first fixture, while the Netherlands managed a draw against Japan. Now the two will face off in Houston in their second fixture. It is time to continue our World Cup odds series with a Netherlands-Sweden prediction and pick.

The Netherlands was in a hard-fought game against Japan, with Jameis Winston in attendance, joining the Orange Army. Both defensive units were strong in the first half. In the third minute of the game, Cody Gapko sent a ball to the feet of Donyell Malen, but the shot was saved by Japan. It took nearly 40 minutes for Japan to get its first major chance, but the game would be scoreless going into the half. Virgil van Dijk would find the first goal of the game in the 51st minute of the game, after a free kick found Ryan Gravenberch, who got it to van Dijk. Japan did not take long to answer, scoring just six minutes later.

Gravenberch would make another play in the 64th minute. He found Crysencio Summerville, who had a beautiful finish that the Japanese goaltender had no chance of stopping. Japan nearly tied in just minutes later and finally would level the game at two in the 89th minute. The Netherlands could not find the game winner and had to settle for the draw.

Meanwhile, Sweden started strongly against Tunisia. After a block of a Viktor Gyokeres attempt, Yasin Ayari found the ball and put it in the back of the net in the seventh minute. Gyokeres would make an impact later, finding a streaking Alexander Isak, who put it in the back of the net to take the 2-0 lead. Tunisia would find a goal before the end of the first half, but struggled to find a chance in the second half. At the same time, Gyokeres and Mattias Svanberg would both score in the second half, before Ayari capped his brace in the 5-1 victory.

The game will go a long way to deciding who will take the tight Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

2026 World Cup odds courtesy of DraftKings

Netherlands vs. Sweden 2026 World Cup Odds

Netherlands 3-Way Moneyline: -140

Sweden 3-Way Moneyline: +390

Draw: +295

Over 2.5 Goals: -115

Under 2.5 Goals: -105

Keys to Netherlands vs. Sweden Matchup

The Oranje need to take advantage of their opportunities in this one, something they did not do as well in the first game against Japan. The Netherlands dominated the first half of the game, including having two shots on target, but neither was able to find the back of the net. The Netherlands dominated possesion in the first half of the game, with 69.2 percent of the possesion. Further, they had three corners and a 57.9 percent duel rate. Still, they did not come away with a goal. If the Netherlands is going to win in this game, they need to take advantage of scoring opportunities.

Sweden will give them those opportunities. They dominated possesion in the first half, and Tunisia continued to give the ball away in the middle third of the field. Tunisia began pressing and fired two shots from outside the box, before getting their first attempt inside the box, which scored. If Sweden allows those opportunities against the Netherlands, there will be more goals.

Sweden also needs to capitalize on their chances as it did in the first game. They had just seven shots on target, yet scored five times in the game. The Netherlands, after dominating the first half, were not the better team in the second half, and were lucky to come away with a draw. They gave up four amazing opportunities to Japan in the second half, but only conceded on two of them.

Netherlands vs. Sweden Prediction and Pick

The Swedish defense is not great. They did not give up a ton of chances to Tunisia, who had just a .28 expected goals mark in the game, but still gave up a goal. Both teams have the ability to score. The Netherlands has scored two or more goals in five of its last six fixtures, while scoring three or more in four of the past five. Meanwhile, Sweden has scored three or more in each of their last three games.

The best play in this game is on the total. The Netherlands should find the back of the net at least twice, but with the attack of Sweden, they will find a goal or two of their own. Still, with the pressure being placed on the Netherlands to take the win, they could struggle at times in the match. This will end in a 2-2 draw, with Sweden taking control of the group.

Finals Netherlands vs. Sweden 2026 World Cup Prediction and Pick:  Draw (+295) and Over 2.5 (-115) 

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