NBA mock draft 2026: Big changes to lottery on the brink of first-round

The 2026 NBA Draft will be immortalized for the four standout talents available at the top of the class. A.J. Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson are reportedly battling for the No. 1 overall pick until the very last second. For as good as those two players are, Cameron Boozer is the best player in the class in my view, and it isn’t really that close. Caleb Wilson’s statistical dominance and jaw-dropping athleticism turned this big three into a big four, and he appears to have the mentality required to reach his full potential.

The talent keeps coming after the first four picks, though there seems to be little consensus in the rest of the board. The draft really starts when the Los Angeles Clippers come on the clock with the No. 5 overall pick. The biggest points of curiosity will be in what order a loaded class of lead guards come off the board, and if Michigan can put three players in the lottery after winning the men’s college basketball national championship.

There are big changes from last week’s mock draft throughout the lottery with first-round just around the corner on Tuesday, June 23. Let’s dive into the movement from our previous projection after the table.

Here’s what’s changed since our last mock.

The Wizards go with A.J. Dybantsa over Darryn Peterson

It’s starting to feel like the public won’t know what the Washington Wizards are doing with the No. 1 overall pick until Adam Silver announces it. I had Darryn Peterson going first overall last week, but I’m flipping back to Dybantsa for a couple reasons. It feels like the Wizards would try to leverage Utah to trade up if they really wanted Peterson. There’s still time for that to happen, but there hasn’t been much smoke on a No. 1 for No. 2 trade the last few weeks. Dybantsa also feels like a cleaner fit in Washington’s projected lineup with Trae Young potentially signing a long-term deal this summer, plus last year’s No. 6 overall pick Tre Johnson already installed at the two. Dybantsa also has fewer questions about his mental makeup than Peterson does after a bizarre freshman season at Kansas.

I’d take Cam Boozer with the first pick, and I lean Peterson over Dybantsa on my personal board, but it still feels like A.J. is the slight front-runner to go No. 1.

The Clippers select Keaton Wagler over Mikel Brown Jr.

Brown’s got a little bit of LaMelo Ball in him, and while that’s a compliment coming from me, it also carries some serious risk. The Louisville guard battled a bad back throughout his freshman year at just 19 years old, and his shot selection might make a head coach’s skin crawl early in his career. Brown also just isn’t a very good fit next to Darius Garland, because that backcourt would be too small and too vulnerable defensively. Wagler has a little more height on him after measuring 1.5 inches taller at the combine, and he also feels far less ball dominant than Brown entering the league, two factors that make him a better fit with Garland.

I like Brown a lot as a prospect for his pull-up three-point shooting ability, passing creativity, and dynamism going to the basket. He still feels a little too risky to be a top-5 pick.

The Thunder change their mind on Michigan big men

The Thunder need to try to find a Victor Wembanyama stopper in this draft, but they can go about a few different ways. Last week, I had Michigan center Aday Mara in this spot as a 7’3 center with a 9’9 standing reach who could be one of the few humans alive able to match Wemby’s length. After watching the NBA Finals, though, I’m more convinced that the best type of matchup for the Spurs superstar is a stronger and more athletic big man who wrestle him away from his spots and keep pressure on him by rolling hard to the rim and hitting the glass. Johnson checks those boxes even if he lacks ideal height for the matchup at 6’9 barefoot. I might be wrong, but I have a gut feeling the Thunder are going to prefer Johnson to Mara if both are on the board at No. 12 overall.

In this projection, Mara falls out of the lottery and into the waiting arms of the Chicago Bulls at No. 15 overall. New head coach Tiago Splitter could really use a young big man to help mold, and Mara would be ideal with a special intersection of size, passing, and footwork as he starts his tenure in Chicago.

Labaron Philon and Hannes Steinbach sneak into the lottery

I had Steinbach going No. 17 to Charlotte and Philon going No. 19 to Toronto last week, but that just feels a little low for both players. Steinbach is a pretty clear lottery-level talent in my eyes: his offensive rebounding is the sharpest skill in the draft after Cam Boozer’s processing, and soft hands and coordination on the move are also rare traits for someone with his size. I don’t see Steinbach as a defensive anchor, but he should thrive in the two-big looks that are back to the norm around the league.

Philon goes No. 13 to Miami in this projection, but it’s possible that pick ends up belonging to Milwaukee. The Bucks had Philon in for a workout, and he’d give them an element of shot creation they need after reaching for Nate Ament at No. 10 overall. The Bama also just feels like a lottery talent, so it’s hard to see him falling all the way to Toronto.

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